Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New Covid cases across the world is surging. New Covid-19 variant found in South Africa and Botswana is adding to fears.</li>
<li>This will bring the focus back to molecular diagnostic companies due to increasing demand for Covid testing.</li>
<li>We have listed few global diagnostic companies, which should benefit from this backdrop.</li>
</ul>


New Covid cases across the world is surging. New Covid-19 variant found in South Africa and Botswana is adding to fears.
This will bring the focus back to molecular diagnostic companies due to increasing demand for Covid testing.
We have listed few global diagnostic companies, which should benefit from this backdrop.


New Covid Variant Raises Fear: Stocks to Own to Buck the Trend

Equity Bottom-Up

Shares of Seegene (096530 KS) are trading near 52-week low. The company is reporting sequential decline in revenue due to decelerating COVID-19 PCR testing volume in European countries prior to the unexpected virus variants outbreak. Such continuous uncertainties may have resulted inventory burdens on customer end and affected to performance of Q2. Meanwhile, the proportion of COVID testing reagents sales over the total sales has been dropped to 65% in H1 2021 from 67% in 2020. However, new COVID-19 cases, especially delta variant are steadily increasing in Europe since Q3. The trend continues in early Q4 also. This may lead to a rebound in COVID-19 reagent revenue for Seegene. Management expects as demand for screenings increases in Asian countries including South Korea, Latin America, and Europe, where COVID-19 cases are growing exponentially due to the delta variant, sales in Q3 are expected to surpass that of Q2. Early trends from other global COVID testing majors enhance our conviction on COVID-19 testing revenue recovery.

Shares of Seegene (096530 KS) are trading near 52-week low. The company is reporting sequential decline in revenue due to decelerating COVID-19 PCR testing volume in European countries prior to the unexpected virus variants outbreak. Such continuous uncertainties may have resulted inventory burdens on customer end and affected to performance of Q2. Meanwhile, the proportion of COVID testing reagents sales over the total sales has been dropped to 65% in H1 2021 from 67% in 2020. However, new COVID-19 cases, especially delta variant are steadily increasing in Europe since Q3. The trend continues in early Q4 also. This may lead to a rebound in COVID-19 reagent revenue for Seegene. Management expects as demand for screenings increases in Asian countries including South Korea, Latin America, and Europe, where COVID-19 cases are growing exponentially due to the delta variant, sales in Q3 are expected to surpass that of Q2. Early trends from other global COVID testing majors enhance our conviction on COVID-19 testing revenue recovery.  

Seegene (096530 KS): Worst Seems to Be Over; Non-COVID Revenue to Dictate Long-Term Growth

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

U.S. President-Elect Joe Biden recently announced four "Day One" priorities for his administration. The first of those priorities is an aggressive seven-point COVID-19 response plan, the first point of which is COVID-19 testing. Testing is Biden's near-term focus, and testing stocks stand to gain.As noted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/biden-covid-19-response-plan-overview-of-its-inherent-investment-themes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45631" rel="noopener">Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes</a>, testing stocks represent the largest, most tangible, and nearest-term investment opportunity amongst the various themes inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan (summarised in the Insight linked to above).Don't just back up the truck, however. The plan could be boon for testing stocks,  but it is harldy a "rising tide lifts all boats" scenario. It creates a window of upside for some of testing stocks, though not all, and it's a brief window replete with nuances and caveats. Selectivity and timing are key.This Insight presents an investment thesis for the COVID-19 testing stock theme, specifically vis-à-vis the details of the plan. It consists of two phases (time horizons), and two types of stocks:<ol>
<li>
Nearer-Term: Focus on diagnostic (versus antibody) testing stocks, especially those whose tests have fit best with Biden's "rapid deployment, rapid results" testing strategy. For example, rapid antigent tests, others with fast time-to-results, point-of-care and at-home collection, etc.</li>
<li>
Medium-Term: COVID-19 vaccine progress is a major catalyst for this theme. Vaccines will not end testing altogether (at least not soon), but as mass-vaccination becomes more reality than a dream, it would be wise to shift out of from diagnostic stocks into antibody testing stocks.</li>
</ol>

U.S. President-Elect Joe Biden recently announced four "Day One" priorities for his administration. The first of those priorities is an aggressive seven-point COVID-19 response plan, the first point of which is COVID-19 testing. Testing is Biden's near-term focus, and testing stocks stand to gain.As noted in Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes, testing stocks represent the largest, most tangible, and nearest-term investment opportunity amongst the various themes inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan (summarised in the Insight linked to above).Don't just back up the truck, however. The plan could be boon for testing stocks,  but it is harldy a "rising tide lifts all boats" scenario. It creates a window of upside for some of testing stocks, though not all, and it's a brief window replete with nuances and caveats. Selectivity and timing are key.This Insight presents an investment thesis for the COVID-19 testing stock theme, specifically vis-à-vis the details of the plan. It consists of two phases (time horizons), and two types of stocks:

Nearer-Term: Focus on diagnostic (versus antibody) testing stocks, especially those whose tests have fit best with Biden's "rapid deployment, rapid results" testing strategy. For example, rapid antigent tests, others with fast time-to-results, point-of-care and at-home collection, etc.

Medium-Term: COVID-19 vaccine progress is a major catalyst for this theme. Vaccines will not end testing altogether (at least not soon), but as mass-vaccination becomes more reality than a dream, it would be wise to shift out of from diagnostic stocks into antibody testing stocks.


Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Its Largest Near-Term Opportunity Is In Testing Stocks

The Biden-Harris administration recently announced four "Day One" priorities, the first of which is their COVID-19 response plan. COVID-19 response is first, because it is a prerequisite to economic recovery, which is the second of their four "Day One" priorities.Several investment themes are inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan, some more direct and obvious than others. This Insight overviews more significant themes and their most representative stocks, in three sections (the first two will be expanded on in separate upcoming reports):<ol>
<li>
COVID-19 Testing: Testing is the largest, most tangible, nearest-term investment opportunity created by Biden's plan. An estimated US$75-100 billion for testing could be windfall for certain stocks, but not all. Selectivity is key, and timing is critical (related to vaccine development).</li>
<li>
Vaccine Delivery: Biden's plan emphasises vaccine manufacturing and delivery, versus vaccine development (Trump had allocated <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">billions</a> to vaccine development companies). Some might go to big pharma companies for M&amp;D, but most should benefit other "cold chain" stocks.</li>
<li>
PPE Supply/Other: PPE manufacturing, of course, but that is largely old news. I will address it, but do so along with other more interesting collateral themes. For example, retail drugs chains, elder-care, medical technologies, and a few other related industries.</li>
</ol>

The Biden-Harris administration recently announced four "Day One" priorities, the first of which is their COVID-19 response plan. COVID-19 response is first, because it is a prerequisite to economic recovery, which is the second of their four "Day One" priorities.Several investment themes are inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan, some more direct and obvious than others. This Insight overviews more significant themes and their most representative stocks, in three sections (the first two will be expanded on in separate upcoming reports):

COVID-19 Testing: Testing is the largest, most tangible, nearest-term investment opportunity created by Biden's plan. An estimated US$75-100 billion for testing could be windfall for certain stocks, but not all. Selectivity is key, and timing is critical (related to vaccine development).

Vaccine Delivery: Biden's plan emphasises vaccine manufacturing and delivery, versus vaccine development (Trump had allocated billions to vaccine development companies). Some might go to big pharma companies for M&amp;D, but most should benefit other "cold chain" stocks.

PPE Supply/Other: PPE manufacturing, of course, but that is largely old news. I will address it, but do so along with other more interesting collateral themes. For example, retail drugs chains, elder-care, medical technologies, and a few other related industries.


Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Major indexes broke below the key support levels we were watching on the Nasdaq Composite (8,264), S&amp;P 500 (2,855), DJI (24,681) and Russell 2000 (1,448), ushering-in additional downside. We view these levels as logical areas of potential short-term resistance moving forward.   In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Services: Pharmaceuticals, Mega- &amp; Large-Cap , Biotech , Diagnostic &amp; Test Products, Diagnostic &amp; Test Services, and Education Svcs., China

Major indexes broke below the key support levels we were watching on the Nasdaq Composite (8,264), S&amp;P 500 (2,855), DJI (24,681) and Russell 2000 (1,448), ushering-in additional downside. We view these levels as logical areas of potential short-term resistance moving forward.   In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Services: Pharmaceuticals, Mega- &amp; Large-Cap , Biotech , Diagnostic &amp; Test Products, Diagnostic &amp; Test Services, and Education Svcs., China

United States

QuidelOrtho Corporation provides health care services. The Company offers technologies and platforms to benefit customers with expanded access to clinical chemistry, immunoassay, molecular diagnostics, immunohematology, donor screening, and point-of-care diagnostics offerings.

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QuidelOrtho (QDEL US)

New Covid Variant Raises Fear: Stocks to Own to Buck the Trend

Amidst the rising fear for the new Covid variant, investors can focus on molecular diagnostic stocks, as testing demand will be increasing again.

Tina Banerjee

Seegene (096530 KS): Worst Seems to Be Over; Non-COVID Revenue to Dictate Long-Term Growth

Seegene is expected to see COVID testing revenue recovery in H2, driven by surging delta variants in Europe and some Asian countries. Non-COVID...

Tina Banerjee

Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Its Largest Near-Term Opportunity Is In Testing Stocks

COVID-19 testing stocks represent the largest, most tangible, and nearest-term investment opportunity inherent in Biden's recently-announced COVID...

Kyle Rudden

Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes

Biden's recently-announced COVID-19 response plan suggests a number of investment themes. This Insight overviews the more significant of those...

Kyle Rudden

S&P 500: Long-Term Oversold

Major indexes broke below the key support levels we were watching on the Nasdaq Composite (8,264), S&P 500 (2,855), DJI (24,681) and Russell...

Vermilion Research

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