Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Event-Driven

<h2>Summary</h2><p>Apple just introduced its new iPhone 7 and 7 Plus by adding some new features. However, we do not see these new features are big enough to drive a stronger demand than our forecast of 70-75mn iPhone shipment in 4Q16, up 56-67% q/q but -7% to 0% y/y decline, which should result in global shipment of 207-212mn units for 2016, down 9-11% y/y. On the other hand, we believe longer battery life, built-in GPS, pool swim App, 50 meters water resistant for Apple Watch 2 should drive stronger…</p>

SummaryApple just introduced its new iPhone 7 and 7 Plus by adding some new features. However, we do not see these new features are big enough to drive a stronger demand than our forecast of 70-75mn iPhone shipment in 4Q16, up 56-67% q/q but -7% to 0% y/y decline, which should result in global shipment of 207-212mn units for 2016, down 9-11% y/y. On the other hand, we believe longer battery life, built-in GPS, pool swim App, 50 meters water resistant for Apple Watch 2 should drive stronger…

Anything Really New at IPhone 7 and Watch 2 Launch Event?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2><p><em>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8628" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8628:1">Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Tech Co (600584 CH, JCET) </a>in China consolidated with Singapore STATS ChipPAC starting 3Q15, we have seen JCET to turn losses for past three quarters but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/721" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:721:1">Advanced Semiconductor Engr (2311 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/720" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:720:1">Siliconware Precision Inds (2325 TT)</a> remained as key OSAT vendors to dominate over 80% of industry profits among key vendors (vs. 58% market share in 2Q16). We thus believe most of analysts to remain positive on ASE and SPIL over others before or after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/721" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:721:1">ASE</a> and</em>…</p>

SummaryAfter Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Tech Co (600584 CH, JCET) in China consolidated with Singapore STATS ChipPAC starting 3Q15, we have seen JCET to turn losses for past three quarters but Advanced Semiconductor Engr (2311 TT) and Siliconware Precision Inds (2325 TT) remained as key OSAT vendors to dominate over 80% of industry profits among key vendors (vs. 58% market share in 2Q16). We thus believe most of analysts to remain positive on ASE and SPIL over others before or after ASE and…

Taiwan OSAT Vendors Dominated >80% of Profits but We See No Winner

<p><em>Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor</em>…</p>

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor…

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

<p><em>Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways suggest strengths in foundry, fabless, and display vendors to drive Taiwan semi sales recovery of 17% y/y in June and 8 out 12 vendors reported a beat on 2Q16 sales guidance. Despite the strengths, we saw weaknesses in power amplifier, touch panel, and solar vendors and our semi leading indicator fell to 8% in June 2016 from this year peak of 31% in</em>…</p>

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways suggest strengths in foundry, fabless, and display vendors to drive Taiwan semi sales recovery of 17% y/y in June and 8 out 12 vendors reported a beat on 2Q16 sales guidance. Despite the strengths, we saw weaknesses in power amplifier, touch panel, and solar vendors and our semi leading indicator fell to 8% in June 2016 from this year peak of 31% in…

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Sino American Silicon Products / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-american-silicon-products-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3441:1" rel="noopener">Sino American Silicon Products (5483 TT)</a>  is a Taiwan-based company mainly engaged in the research, development, design, manufacture, and distribution of semiconductor wafer products with subsidiaries in both listed and unlisted companies including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalwafers-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17916:1" rel="noopener">Globalwafers (6488 TT)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/parade-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6987:1" rel="noopener">Parade Technologies (4966 TT)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/actron-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4989:1" rel="noopener">Actron Technology (8255 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-wireless-semiconduc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16559:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Wireless Semiconduc (8086 TT)</a> with only in Globalwafers - SAS owns more than 51%.</p>
<p>The large discount between SAS and its subsidiaries could be due to 1) lack of bulge-bracket coverage, 2) higher polysilicon price 3) and 3) weak 1H demand from the solar and the semiconductor from COVID-19 plague which caused investors to care less about the value dislocation between SAS and its subsidiaries.</p>
<p>With a somewhat certain 28-30% gain in the earning as early Q1 2022, investors should start slowly building positions in SAS as the risk-off beast may disturb the confidence in the equity market much longer than what investors would like. The second scenario of increasing stake in Parade Tech should be treated as a call option as when it happens, it is a bonus of another 24%. Thus the total upside could be around 54%. </p>
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<p>Besides the above-mentioned reasons, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-american-silicon-products-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3441:1" rel="noopener">Sino American Silicon Products (5483 TT)</a> remains a smart way to gain exposure in Globalwafers which trades at 24x PER, compared to SAS that trades at 13x PER. The other factor is that Globalwafers dividend yield is 2.28% while SAS is 5.22%. </p>
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Sino American Silicon Products (5483 TT)  is a Taiwan-based company mainly engaged in the research, development, design, manufacture, and distribution of semiconductor wafer products with subsidiaries in both listed and unlisted companies including Globalwafers (6488 TT) , Parade Technologies (4966 TT) , Actron Technology (8255 TT) and Advanced Wireless Semiconduc (8086 TT) with only in Globalwafers - SAS owns more than 51%.
The large discount between SAS and its subsidiaries could be due to 1) lack of bulge-bracket coverage, 2) higher polysilicon price 3) and 3) weak 1H demand from the solar and the semiconductor from COVID-19 plague which caused investors to care less about the value dislocation between SAS and its subsidiaries.
With a somewhat certain 28-30% gain in the earning as early Q1 2022, investors should start slowly building positions in SAS as the risk-off beast may disturb the confidence in the equity market much longer than what investors would like. The second scenario of increasing stake in Parade Tech should be treated as a call option as when it happens, it is a bonus of another 24%. Thus the total upside could be around 54%. 

Besides the above-mentioned reasons, Sino American Silicon Products (5483 TT) remains a smart way to gain exposure in Globalwafers which trades at 24x PER, compared to SAS that trades at 13x PER. The other factor is that Globalwafers dividend yield is 2.28% while SAS is 5.22%. 


Sino American Silicon (5483): Entry to Globalwafers and Others

Taiwan

Quanta Computer Inc. manufactures and markets notebook computers and related peripheral equipment.

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Quanta Computer (2382 TT)

Anything Really New at IPhone 7 and Watch 2 Launch Event?

SummaryApple just introduced its new iPhone 7 and 7 Plus by adding some new features. However, we do not see these new features are big enough to...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan OSAT Vendors Dominated >80% of Profits but We See No Winner

SummaryAfter Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Tech Co (600584 CH, JCET) in China consolidated with Singapore STATS ChipPAC starting 3Q15, we have...

Andrew Lu

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech...

Andrew Lu

Points from Taiwan Semi/Tech 2Q Sales

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways...

Andrew Lu

Sino American Silicon (5483): Entry to Globalwafers and Others

Sino American Silicon remains a smart way to gain exposure in Globalwafers (24x PER), compared to SAS (13x PER). The other factor is that...

Henry Soediarko

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