Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>More y/y improvement (or decline deceleration) for PC/server, power management IC (PMIC), CMOS sensor/touch controller, GaAs RF/VCSEL, gaming GPU card, memory, and foundry vendors</li>
<li>GaAs RF/VCSEL and gaming GPU card vendors saw very impressive sales growth, driven by new phones introduction and rush orders to use NVIDIA RTX 4090 gaming card for AI training.</li>
<li>Stronger than expected Oct for TSMC and Gigabyte might drive 4Q sales and near term share price upside; Visera, Andes Tech, and AP Memory might see sales and price downside.</li>
</ul>


More y/y improvement (or decline deceleration) for PC/server, power management IC (PMIC), CMOS sensor/touch controller, GaAs RF/VCSEL, gaming GPU card, memory, and foundry vendors
GaAs RF/VCSEL and gaming GPU card vendors saw very impressive sales growth, driven by new phones introduction and rush orders to use NVIDIA RTX 4090 gaming card for AI training.
Stronger than expected Oct for TSMC and Gigabyte might drive 4Q sales and near term share price upside; Visera, Andes Tech, and AP Memory might see sales and price downside.


What Early Indicators from the Reported Oct 23 Taiwan Semi Sales

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>U.S. expands China chip restrictions -- Implementing lower performance thresholds and further restricting sales via third party countries.</li>
<li>Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. We will learn more today from Lam and ASML results.</li>
<li>Taiwan AI Plays also to be impacted -- Shares of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, Asia Vital Gigabyte, Super Micro, Alchip appear precarious.</li>
</ul>


U.S. expands China chip restrictions -- Implementing lower performance thresholds and further restricting sales via third party countries.
Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. We will learn more today from Lam and ASML results.
Taiwan AI Plays also to be impacted -- Shares of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, Asia Vital Gigabyte, Super Micro, Alchip appear precarious.


U.S. Expands China Chip Restrictions: Taiwan AI Names Most at Risk of Pullback

<ul>
<li>Taiwan's AI supply chain names have fallen over the last month, yet many have still outperformed Nvidia by a wide margin over the last six months.</li>
<li>We don't want to sell our Nvidia despite market risks -- We believe a basket of Taiwan AI stocks can act as a Short to hedge a Long Nvidia position.</li>
<li>Shorting a basket of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, and Asia Vital Components can act as a hedge vs. a Long Nvidia position. Below we explain why.</li>
</ul>


Taiwan's AI supply chain names have fallen over the last month, yet many have still outperformed Nvidia by a wide margin over the last six months.
We don't want to sell our Nvidia despite market risks -- We believe a basket of Taiwan AI stocks can act as a Short to hedge a Long Nvidia position.
Shorting a basket of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, and Asia Vital Components can act as a hedge vs. a Long Nvidia position. Below we explain why.


Taiwan AI Supply Chain Names: Four AI Plays to Short as Hedge Vs. An Nvidia Long

<ul>
<li>Nvidia will report its earnings today U.S.-time, we outline the key Taiwan AI supply chain names to watch around the earnings.</li>
<li>TSMC has maintained its full-year revenue guidance despite media reports questioning whether a further downgrade was coming.</li>
<li>Hon Hai produces over 50% of Nvidia's AI hardware according to media reports.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia will report its earnings today U.S.-time, we outline the key Taiwan AI supply chain names to watch around the earnings.
TSMC has maintained its full-year revenue guidance despite media reports questioning whether a further downgrade was coming.
Hon Hai produces over 50% of Nvidia's AI hardware according to media reports.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Key Supply Chain Names to Watch for Nvidia's Earnings Today

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of $7.19 billion, down 13% from a year ago but up 19% sequentially and ~10% higher than the guided midpoint.</li>
<li>Current quarter outlook for revenues of $11 billion, a ~55% sequential increase, sparked mayhem in the markets and sent NVIDIA’s stock soaring over 24% in after hours trading</li>
<li>Don't go chasing waterfalls, there are many other ways to rise with the tide</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of $7.19 billion, down 13% from a year ago but up 19% sequentially and ~10% higher than the guided midpoint.
Current quarter outlook for revenues of $11 billion, a ~55% sequential increase, sparked mayhem in the markets and sent NVIDIA’s stock soaring over 24% in after hours trading
Don't go chasing waterfalls, there are many other ways to rise with the tide


Taiwan

Quanta Computer Inc. manufactures and markets notebook computers and related peripheral equipment.

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Quanta Computer (2382 TT)

What Early Indicators from the Reported Oct 23 Taiwan Semi Sales

What Early Indicators from the Reported Oct 23 Taiwan Semi Sales? PC/server, PMIC, CMOS sensor/touch controller, GaAs RF, gaming GPU card, memory...

Andrew Lu

U.S. Expands China Chip Restrictions: Taiwan AI Names Most at Risk of Pullback

Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. Rather than sell...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan AI Supply Chain Names: Four AI Plays to Short as Hedge Vs. An Nvidia Long

Taiwan's AI supply chain names have fallen over the last month, yet many have still outperformed Nvidia by a wide margin over the last six months.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Key Supply Chain Names to Watch for Nvidia's Earnings Today

Also -- TSMC has maintained its full-year revenue guidance and Hon Hai is said to produce over 50% of Nvidia's AI hardware.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

NVIDIA. Yikes! Have We Missed The Boat?

Q1’23 revenues of $7.19 billion, -13% YoY but up +19% QoQ. Q2'23 outlook @ $11 billion, a ~55% QoQ increase. NVIDIA may be the gold rush, but picks...

William Keating

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