Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pvr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10144:1" rel="noopener">PVR Ltd (PVRL IN)</a> 's December performance on ATP and SHP was very encouraging. If the trend sustains we believe the earnings recovery would be much faster than anticipated. </li>
<li>New trends in content consumption, strong content pipeline and truce with OTT players make a case for a solid recovery for the Industry.</li>
<li>PVR has historically traded at an average of 11.4x EV/EBITDA. Based on our current estimates and conservative 10.5x multiple, there is a return potential of &gt;20% from these levels.</li>
</ul>



PVR Ltd (PVRL IN) 's December performance on ATP and SHP was very encouraging. If the trend sustains we believe the earnings recovery would be much faster than anticipated. 
New trends in content consumption, strong content pipeline and truce with OTT players make a case for a solid recovery for the Industry.
PVR has historically traded at an average of 11.4x EV/EBITDA. Based on our current estimates and conservative 10.5x multiple, there is a return potential of &gt;20% from these levels.


PVR (PVRL IN) | Q3 | The "Pricy" Show Has Begun

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h3>About The Narrative</h3>
<p>Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. </p>
<p>The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pvr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10144:1" rel="noopener">PVR Ltd (PVRL IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> (Retail) / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/titan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12630:1" rel="noopener">Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/page-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4940:1" rel="noopener">Page Industries (PAG IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)</a> </p>
<p>We have separated the quotes to highlight<em><strong> Business Environment &amp; Key Drivers, Pricing and Premiumisation, Competition, Margins &amp; Commodity Inflation and Outlook.</strong></em></p>

About The Narrative
Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. 
The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of Asian Paints (APNT IN) / PVR Ltd (PVRL IN) / Reliance Industries (RIL IN) (Retail) / Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) / Page Industries (PAG IN) / InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) 
We have separated the quotes to highlight Business Environment &amp; Key Drivers, Pricing and Premiumisation, Competition, Margins &amp; Commodity Inflation and Outlook.

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India Consumer - Asian Paints, PVR, Reliance Retail, Titan, Page, Indigo

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Geojit BNP Paribas

Geojit

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

<p>PVR Ltd owns and operates multiplexes across 21 States and UT's with 846 screens (including 9 in Colombo). Major income segments for them are Box office, Food &amp; Beverage (F&amp;B;) and Advertisement (Ad). PVR reported revenue of Rs.59cr (Q4FY21-Rs.181cr) from core operations as Covid second wave impacted Q1FY22 operations significantly. 63% of total screens are permitted to operate with various restrictions...</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

PVR Ltd owns and operates multiplexes across 21 States and UT's with 846 screens (including 9 in Colombo). Major income segments for them are Box office, Food &amp; Beverage (F&amp;B;) and Advertisement (Ad). PVR reported revenue of Rs.59cr (Q4FY21-Rs.181cr) from core operations as Covid second wave impacted Q1FY22 operations significantly. 63% of total screens are permitted to operate with various restrictions...Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PVR Ltd: Cinemas Reopened; Third Wave Fear Persist

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<p>Interglobe Aviation (Indigo)’s board approved a fund raising of around US$400m (INR30,000m) on 10th May 2021. </p><p>This is the second time over the past year that the company has obtained a board approval for undertaking a fund raising. The previous instance was in Aug 2020, when the board approved a fundraising of up to INR40,000m. However, the quicker than expected recovery since then meant that the company never raised the funds and in Jan 2021, its CFO stated that it had no intention of doing so either.</p><p>However, the brutal COVID-19 second wave in India probably led to a change of heart. In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics. </p>

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo)’s board approved a fund raising of around US$400m (INR30,000m) on 10th May 2021. This is the second time over the past year that the company has obtained a board approval for undertaking a fund raising. The previous instance was in Aug 2020, when the board approved a fundraising of up to INR40,000m. However, the quicker than expected recovery since then meant that the company never raised the funds and in Jan 2021, its CFO stated that it had no intention of doing so either.However, the brutal COVID-19 second wave in India probably led to a change of heart. In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics. 

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) QIP Early Look - Headwinds Lead to a Change of Heart

<h3>In this Insight </h3>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a>: Although very early considering the current uncertainty, based on initiation channel feedback, we take a shot at estimating possible trends in wholesale and retail for FY22.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pvr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10144:1" rel="noopener">PVR Ltd (PVRL IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inox-leisure-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1999:1" rel="noopener">Inox Leisure (INOL IN)</a>: We expect a ~10% reduction in the number of screens due to this pandemic, however, we do not see any material impact of the same on ATPs (expecting them to remain lower). </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/computer-age-management-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28843:1" rel="noopener">Computer Age Management Services (CAMS IN)</a>: Flows mixed, but digitization tailwind could aid revenue growth. Currently, our channels indicate no material stress in terms of SIP flows. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a>: Our channels reiterate the strong growth prospects for edible oil. Tailwinds remain and players like MRCO are likely to benefit with volumes expected to remain buoyant. </p>
<h3>About India Channel Insight</h3>
<div>
<p>Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  </p>
</div>

In this Insight 
Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN): Although very early considering the current uncertainty, based on initiation channel feedback, we take a shot at estimating possible trends in wholesale and retail for FY22.
PVR Ltd (PVRL IN) &amp; Inox Leisure (INOL IN): We expect a ~10% reduction in the number of screens due to this pandemic, however, we do not see any material impact of the same on ATPs (expecting them to remain lower). 
Computer Age Management Services (CAMS IN): Flows mixed, but digitization tailwind could aid revenue growth. Currently, our channels indicate no material stress in terms of SIP flows. 
Marico Ltd (MRCO IN): Our channels reiterate the strong growth prospects for edible oil. Tailwinds remain and players like MRCO are likely to benefit with volumes expected to remain buoyant. 
About India Channel Insight

Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  


India Channel Insight | Maruti, PVR, Inox, CAMS, Marico

India

PVR INOX Limited operates cinemas. The Company owns and manages multiplex movie theaters.

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Pvr Inox (PVRINOX IN)

PVR (PVRL IN) | Q3 | The "Pricy" Show Has Begun

PVR's commentary on ATP and SHP is very encouraging. New trends in content consumption, strong content pipeline and truce with OTT players make a...

Pranav Bhavsar

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India Consumer - Asian Paints, PVR, Reliance Retail, Titan, Page, Indigo

The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of Asian Paints / PVR Ltd / Reliance Retail / Titan / Page Industries /Indigo

Pranav Bhavsar

PVR Ltd: Cinemas Reopened; Third Wave Fear Persist

PVR Ltd owns and operates multiplexes across 21 States and UT's with 846 screens (including 9 in Colombo). Major income segments for them are Box...

Geojit

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) QIP Early Look - Headwinds Lead to a Change of Heart

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo)’s board approved a fund raising of around US$400m on 10th May 2021. This is the second time over the past year that...

Sumeet Singh

India Channel Insight | Maruti, PVR, Inox, CAMS, Marico

Channel interactions are an integral part of our research process. For this insight, we interact with channels and share our views on the likely...

Pranav Bhavsar

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