Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

The Turkish Lira has plummeted 14.5% against the dollar and 11% against the Euro since the start of October. While the Lira has never been a great store of value, even by its own standards this fall is alarming in its speed.  Turkey has USD420bn of external debt of which about USD100bn is short term (2015 Nominal GDP was UD718bn). The country continues to run a a current account deficit despite politically unacceptably low growth and a low oil price (it is an oil importer). Unemployment has been…

The Turkish Lira has plummeted 14.5% against the dollar and 11% against the Euro since the start of October. While the Lira has never been a great store of value, even by its own standards this fall is alarming in its speed.  Turkey has USD420bn of external debt of which about USD100bn is short term (2015 Nominal GDP was UD718bn). The country continues to run a a current account deficit despite politically unacceptably low growth and a low oil price (it is an oil importer). Unemployment has been…

Money Matters: Is the Lira Signalling Default Is on the Way?

Having broken convincingly through 100, the DXY (trade weighted dollar index) has pulled back in the past few days to test its break. The Italian referendum, as expected, produced a bad outcome for believers in the single European currency but as it turns out it was so widely expected that it triggered short covering in the Euro. I would highlight a few data points in the next few days that may add to dollar strength, cement the break-out in the DXY and lead to an acceleration in the up-trend in…

Having broken convincingly through 100, the DXY (trade weighted dollar index) has pulled back in the past few days to test its break. The Italian referendum, as expected, produced a bad outcome for believers in the single European currency but as it turns out it was so widely expected that it triggered short covering in the Euro. I would highlight a few data points in the next few days that may add to dollar strength, cement the break-out in the DXY and lead to an acceleration in the up-trend in…

Money Matters: Short-Term Dollar Catalysts.

Over the past five years or so, since the RMB moved into over-valuation territory, there has been a consistent and inverse relationship between the RMB and US bond yields. RMB strength has been associated with rising US bond yields while RMB weakness has been associated with falling bond yields. The rationale should be apparent but as RMB weakness is associated with the potential for Chinese exporters to lower their USD prices (and incidentally reduce Asian corporate earnings outside of China)…

 Over the past five years or so, since the RMB moved into over-valuation territory, there has been a consistent and inverse relationship between the RMB and US bond yields. RMB strength has been associated with rising US bond yields while RMB weakness has been associated with falling bond yields. The rationale should be apparent but as RMB weakness is associated with the potential for Chinese exporters to lower their USD prices (and incidentally reduce Asian corporate earnings outside of China)…

Money Matters: US Bond Yields & USD/RMB - A Paradigm Shift?

Friday saw the release of the Monthly Chinese monetary aggregates. M2 rose 11.6% year-over-year. Although this is one the lowest percentage growth rates in the past 20 years, the money stock is now so huge that the incremental growth remains outsized relative to both GDP and (form an FX point of view ) the equivalent growth in the USA. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/016/341/original/China-M2-growth-YoY-Last-Price_chartbuilder.png?1479113085" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="16341"></figure>Over the past 12 months China's money stock has risen from RMB136tr to RMB152tr (USD22.3tr at current fx rates) a growth of RMB16tr (USD2.35tr) in an economy that…

Friday saw the release of the Monthly Chinese monetary aggregates. M2 rose 11.6% year-over-year. Although this is one the lowest percentage growth rates in the past 20 years, the money stock is now so huge that the incremental growth remains outsized relative to both GDP and (form an FX point of view ) the equivalent growth in the USA. Over the past 12 months China's money stock has risen from RMB136tr to RMB152tr (USD22.3tr at current fx rates) a growth of RMB16tr (USD2.35tr) in an economy that…

Money Matters: Chinese Monetary Aggregates Point to Accelerating RMB Weakness.

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Indian Government has taken a significant step in curbing the parallel economy by removing Rs500 and Rs1000 notes from circulation and plans to replace it with new notes. People having high-value notes will need to deposit it in a bank and exchange it for new notes until end December'16 ( and in the process, any large volume of cash deposits if undertaken will attract the tax authorities). High-value currency notes have always served as convenient storage points of undeclared and/or illegal…

The Indian Government has taken a significant step in curbing the parallel economy by removing Rs500 and Rs1000 notes from circulation and plans to replace it with new notes. People having high-value notes will need to deposit it in a bank and exchange it for new notes until end December'16 ( and in the process, any large volume of cash deposits if undertaken will attract the tax authorities). High-value currency notes have always served as convenient storage points of undeclared and/or illegal…

Demonetisation in India: High-Value Currency De-Notified; Con.Discretionary to Slow; Rate Cut Likely

Malaysia

Public Bank Berhad provides a range of banking and financial services which include leasing and factoring, stock and futures broking, financing for the purchase of licensed public vehicles, and other financial services. The Group's overseas operations include branches in Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

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Money Matters: Is the Lira Signalling Default Is on the Way?

The Turkish Lira has plummeted 14.5% against the dollar and 11% against the Euro since the start of October. While the Lira has never been a great...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: Short-Term Dollar Catalysts.

Having broken convincingly through 100, the DXY (trade weighted dollar index) has pulled back in the past few days to test its break. The Italian...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: US Bond Yields & USD/RMB - A Paradigm Shift?

Over the past five years or so, since the RMB moved into over-valuation territory, there has been a consistent and inverse relationship between...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: Chinese Monetary Aggregates Point to Accelerating RMB Weakness.

Friday saw the release of the Monthly Chinese monetary aggregates. M2 rose 11.6% year-over-year. Although this is one the lowest percentage growth...

Stewart Paterson

Demonetisation in India: High-Value Currency De-Notified; Con.Discretionary to Slow; Rate Cut Likely

The Indian Government has taken a significant step in curbing the parallel economy by removing Rs500 and Rs1000 notes from circulation and plans to...

Asia Advisors

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