Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We remain optimistic about PTTEP’s new 5-year investment plan given the budget of US$29.1bn,which will focus on existing and developing projects and target a 3.3% CAGR for sales volume in2022-27</li>
<li>3.3% CAGR sales growth guidance for 2023-27 The 5-year production and investment plan target a 3.3% CAGR for sales volume in 2022-27, from existing and developing projects.</li>
<li>The production is guided to remain flat YoY in 2023 and increase by 8%/9% in 2024/2025 respectively on the back of G1/61 production ramp up to full capacity</li>
</ul>


We remain optimistic about PTTEP’s new 5-year investment plan given the budget of US$29.1bn,which will focus on existing and developing projects and target a 3.3% CAGR for sales volume in2022-27
3.3% CAGR sales growth guidance for 2023-27 The 5-year production and investment plan target a 3.3% CAGR for sales volume in 2022-27, from existing and developing projects.
The production is guided to remain flat YoY in 2023 and increase by 8%/9% in 2024/2025 respectively on the back of G1/61 production ramp up to full capacity


PTTEP : Softening ASP to Hammer Sales Growth

<ul>
<li>The 3Q22 net profit marked a new quarterly high of Bt24.2bn, falling out better than ours and consensus forecast by 15%.The analyst meeting also came out in a positive tone</li>
<li>Sales growth drove 3Q22 profit The company reported its 3Q22 net profit of Bt24.2bn (+153% YoY, +17% QoQ).The YoY growth was driven by 15% and 21% rises in sales volume</li>
<li>Sales volume grew by 15% YoY and 3%QoQ to 478 kBOED in 3Q22, aided by the production commencement of G1/61 (Erawan) project in 2Q22,higher nomination from Oman block 61 project</li>
</ul>


The 3Q22 net profit marked a new quarterly high of Bt24.2bn, falling out better than ours and consensus forecast by 15%.The analyst meeting also came out in a positive tone
Sales growth drove 3Q22 profit The company reported its 3Q22 net profit of Bt24.2bn (+153% YoY, +17% QoQ).The YoY growth was driven by 15% and 21% rises in sales volume
Sales volume grew by 15% YoY and 3%QoQ to 478 kBOED in 3Q22, aided by the production commencement of G1/61 (Erawan) project in 2Q22,higher nomination from Oman block 61 project


Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

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<h2>RECENT DEVELOPMENTS</h2>
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<li>The delivery of gas from the Zawtika field will be suspended for two weeks after a leakage was found at an onshore pipeline yesterday, which resulted in a drop in gas pressure.</li>
<li>PTTEP is investigating the cause of the leakage, with the preliminary findings showing no trace of an explosion or fire.</li>
<li>Limited impact: PTTEP holds 80% in this project, which has a daily gas output of approximately 322 MMSCFD. </li>
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RECENT DEVELOPMENTS





The delivery of gas from the Zawtika field will be suspended for two weeks after a leakage was found at an onshore pipeline yesterday, which resulted in a drop in gas pressure.
PTTEP is investigating the cause of the leakage, with the preliminary findings showing no trace of an explosion or fire.
Limited impact: PTTEP holds 80% in this project, which has a daily gas output of approximately 322 MMSCFD. 






Big Cap Update - PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP)

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY call with a target price of Bt179. The 2Q22 net profit rose to a record high of Bt20.6bn (+189% YoY, +96% QoQ), 7% higher than our forecast. </li>
<li>2Q22 net profit marked new high 2Q22 net profit rose to a new high of Bt20.6bn (+189% YoY,+96% QoQ),7% higher than our forecast. Excluding extraordinary items, mainly the hedging loss</li>
<li>The volume sales improved to 465kBOED (+5% YoY, +9% QoQ), primarily from production commencement of G1/61 (Erawan) project in 2Q22,together with higher nomination from Arthit and Oman block 61 project.</li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY call with a target price of Bt179. The 2Q22 net profit rose to a record high of Bt20.6bn (+189% YoY, +96% QoQ), 7% higher than our forecast. 
2Q22 net profit marked new high 2Q22 net profit rose to a new high of Bt20.6bn (+189% YoY,+96% QoQ),7% higher than our forecast. Excluding extraordinary items, mainly the hedging loss
The volume sales improved to 465kBOED (+5% YoY, +9% QoQ), primarily from production commencement of G1/61 (Erawan) project in 2Q22,together with higher nomination from Arthit and Oman block 61 project.


<ul>
<li>We estimate PTTEP’s 2Q22 net profit to surge 170%YoY and 83%QoQ on the back of higher sales volume and average selling price.The solid performance is expected to continue in 2H22 </li>
<li>Bright 2Q22 earnings outlook We expect PTTEP to post 2Q22 net profit of Bt19.3bn (+170% YoY, +83% QoQ), driven by solid average selling price and sales volume.</li>
<li>The average selling price (ASP) is forecasted to increase to US$56/BOE (+32% YoY, +8% QoQ) as the reference Dubai crude oil price rose to US$108/bbl (+61% YoY,+13% QoQ) and gas</li>
</ul>


We estimate PTTEP’s 2Q22 net profit to surge 170%YoY and 83%QoQ on the back of higher sales volume and average selling price.The solid performance is expected to continue in 2H22 
Bright 2Q22 earnings outlook We expect PTTEP to post 2Q22 net profit of Bt19.3bn (+170% YoY, +83% QoQ), driven by solid average selling price and sales volume.
The average selling price (ASP) is forecasted to increase to US$56/BOE (+32% YoY, +8% QoQ) as the reference Dubai crude oil price rose to US$108/bbl (+61% YoY,+13% QoQ) and gas


Thailand

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited explores for crude oil and natural gas, develops fields for production, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company is a subsidiary of the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

PTT Exploration & Production P (PTTEP-R TB)

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PTT Exploration & Production P (PTTEP-R TB)

PTTEP : Softening ASP to Hammer Sales Growth

We remain optimistic about PTTEP’s new 5-year investment plan given the budget of US$29.1bn, which will focus on existing and developing projects...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTTEP : 3Q22 Profit Market New High

The 3Q22 net profit marked a new quarterly high of Bt24.2bn, falling out better than ours and consensus forecast by 15%. The analyst meeting also...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Big Cap Update - PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP)

PTTEP is the largest Thai E&P operator, with proved reserves at 1,350 million barrels of oil equivalent at the end of 2021.

Krungthai XSpring

PTTEP : Record High Earnings in 2Q22

Maintain BUY call with a target price of Bt179. The 2Q22 net profit rose to a record high of Bt20.6bn (+189% YoY, +96% QoQ), 7% higher than our...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTTEP : Strong 2Q22 Performance Outlook

We estimate PTTEP’s 2Q22 net profit to surge 170% YoY and 83% QoQ on the back of higher sales volume and average selling price.The solid...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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