Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Government owned or quasi-state entities control a huge swathe of Thai corporate interest. In this review, we highlight PTT Group, the country's state oil company and arguably one of the largest industrial groups since it is the only one that regularly makes the Fortune 500. With interests spanning oil, gas, pipelines, refineries, and petrochems, some people claim it virtually controls the country's energy sector, and they wouldn't be too far off the mark. From humble beginnings of the Three Soldiers, PTT has taken on global giants like Shell and ExxonMobil and surprised the world with its ingenuity through the Amazon Coffee concept. On a stock basis, we would not really recommend any stock here, though there is still a little upside left for PTT, Thai Oil, and BAFS in our view.</p>

Government owned or quasi-state entities control a huge swathe of Thai corporate interest. In this review, we highlight PTT Group, the country's state oil company and arguably one of the largest industrial groups since it is the only one that regularly makes the Fortune 500. With interests spanning oil, gas, pipelines, refineries, and petrochems, some people claim it virtually controls the country's energy sector, and they wouldn't be too far off the mark. From humble beginnings of the Three Soldiers, PTT has taken on global giants like Shell and ExxonMobil and surprised the world with its ingenuity through the Amazon Coffee concept. On a stock basis, we would not really recommend any stock here, though there is still a little upside left for PTT, Thai Oil, and BAFS in our view.

Big Brother (Season Premiere): Empire of Oil

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

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Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>OPEC's production cuts announced this week represent a positive near-term development for world oil markets, removing more than 1 million barrels per day from an oversupplied system. Even after factoring in the inevitable U.S. shale response to higher crude prices, OPEC's cuts point to a meaningful supply deficit next year. Consequently, we are raising our 2017 West Texas Intermediate price to $60 per barrel from $50.</p><p>Improved near-term fundamentals come at a cost, however. Even a modest recovery in oil prices will encourage U.S. shale producers to further ramp activity so that they eventually replace almost all "removed" OPEC barrels with their own. Increased near-term shale activity means that oil prices are unlikely to remain elevated for long. The industry is awash in low-cost oil, and temporary OPEC cuts cannot alter this reality. Our long-term oil price assumption of $55/bbl WTI is unchanged.</p><p><em>Analyst: Stephen Simko, CFA </em></p>

OPEC's production cuts announced this week represent a positive near-term development for world oil markets, removing more than 1 million barrels per day from an oversupplied system. Even after factoring in the inevitable U.S. shale response to higher crude prices, OPEC's cuts point to a meaningful supply deficit next year. Consequently, we are raising our 2017 West Texas Intermediate price to $60 per barrel from $50.Improved near-term fundamentals come at a cost, however. Even a modest recovery in oil prices will encourage U.S. shale producers to further ramp activity so that they eventually replace almost all "removed" OPEC barrels with their own. Increased near-term shale activity means that oil prices are unlikely to remain elevated for long. The industry is awash in low-cost oil, and temporary OPEC cuts cannot alter this reality. Our long-term oil price assumption of $55/bbl WTI is unchanged.Analyst: Stephen Simko, CFA 

OPEC Adds a Twist to the Plot, but the Ending Is Unchanged

<p>The decision by OPEC to cut production is certain to have a material impact on short-term oil and energy share prices.</p><p>This brief report aims to address what we believe are the key supply aspects underpinning 2017-18 fundamentals. Our aim is to assist long-term investors with making sense of the implications of whatever supply strategy OPEC ultimately decides to pursue. Whatever strategy is decided upon, the short-term nature of any production cuts and the long-term problem for oil prices that is U.S. shale means our bearish $55/barrel West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, long-term price outlook will not be changing.</p><p><em>Analyst: Stephen Simko, CFA </em></p>

The decision by OPEC to cut production is certain to have a material impact on short-term oil and energy share prices.This brief report aims to address what we believe are the key supply aspects underpinning 2017-18 fundamentals. Our aim is to assist long-term investors with making sense of the implications of whatever supply strategy OPEC ultimately decides to pursue. Whatever strategy is decided upon, the short-term nature of any production cuts and the long-term problem for oil prices that is U.S. shale means our bearish $55/barrel West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, long-term price outlook will not be changing.Analyst: Stephen Simko, CFA 

Cold Water: An OPEC Cut Can't Fix Oil's Structural Issues

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

<p>The stock of foreign direct investment into the "One Belt One Road" bloc is a small share of global investment; nonetheless, the bloc's share of global greenfield investment remain disproportionately large.</p><p>Examination of large OBOR-resident firms and the composition of their assets and revenues show that many firms in the region remain much more dependent on Chinese sales than do Chinese firms on foreign-earned sales.  Nonetheless, the diversion of Chinese investment from domestic to overseas (as China rebalances its domestic growth away from domestic investment) could potentially shift this dynamic.  Large Chinese firms leading the charge abroad tend to belong to the Transport and Storage and Computer Equipment sectors.</p><p>Meanwhile, large firms resident in OBOR tend already to be much more dependent on foreign-earned revenue; some of those more dependent on Chinese domestic demand  rather than regional demand may experience fallout from China's rebalancing.  Others exposed to growth elsewhere in the region may benefit, or themselves become targets for Chinese cross-border acquisitions within the region.</p>

The stock of foreign direct investment into the "One Belt One Road" bloc is a small share of global investment; nonetheless, the bloc's share of global greenfield investment remain disproportionately large.Examination of large OBOR-resident firms and the composition of their assets and revenues show that many firms in the region remain much more dependent on Chinese sales than do Chinese firms on foreign-earned sales.  Nonetheless, the diversion of Chinese investment from domestic to overseas (as China rebalances its domestic growth away from domestic investment) could potentially shift this dynamic.  Large Chinese firms leading the charge abroad tend to belong to the Transport and Storage and Computer Equipment sectors.Meanwhile, large firms resident in OBOR tend already to be much more dependent on foreign-earned revenue; some of those more dependent on Chinese domestic demand  rather than regional demand may experience fallout from China's rebalancing.  Others exposed to growth elsewhere in the region may benefit, or themselves become targets for Chinese cross-border acquisitions within the region.

Silk Roads Part 3: China and OBOR Investment

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<div>Oil prices have had a jittery week after the shock of the US elections leading to a dollar resurgence and abject confusion over the impact on the potential impending OPEC deal. </div><div>Short positions have steadily been building under the assumption a deal likely won't be done, or if it is done then it won't be enforceable and not take enough barrels off the market. </div><div>This had sparked a predictable series of leaks and a flurry of diplomatic activity from oil ministers and the OPEC Secretary General to try…</div>

Oil prices have had a jittery week after the shock of the US elections leading to a dollar resurgence and abject confusion over the impact on the potential impending OPEC deal. Short positions have steadily been building under the assumption a deal likely won't be done, or if it is done then it won't be enforceable and not take enough barrels off the market. This had sparked a predictable series of leaks and a flurry of diplomatic activity from oil ministers and the OPEC Secretary General to try…

Thailand

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited explores for crude oil and natural gas, develops fields for production, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company is a subsidiary of the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

PTT Exploration & Production P (PTTEP-R TB)

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PTT Exploration & Production P (PTTEP-R TB)

Big Brother (Season Premiere): Empire of Oil

Government owned or quasi-state entities control a huge swathe of Thai corporate interest. In this review, we highlight PTT Group, the country's...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

OPEC Adds a Twist to the Plot, but the Ending Is Unchanged

OPEC's production cuts announced this week represent a positive near-term development for world oil markets, removing more than 1 million barrels...

Morningstar, Inc.

Cold Water: An OPEC Cut Can't Fix Oil's Structural Issues

The decision by OPEC to cut production is certain to have a material impact on short-term oil and energy share prices.This brief report aims to...

Morningstar, Inc.

Silk Roads Part 3: China and OBOR Investment

The stock of foreign direct investment into the "One Belt One Road" bloc is a small share of global investment; nonetheless, the bloc's share of...

Naomi Fink

Playing the OPEC Deal

Oil prices have had a jittery week after the shock of the US elections leading to a dollar resurgence and abject confusion over the impact on the...

Emad Mostaque

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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