Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The prolonged interest rate upcycle and USD appreciation pose downside risks to global oil demand and crude oil prices.</li><li>Moreover, the initiation of new refining capacity is pressuring energy stock prices, especially those in the refinery sector.</li><li>Refinery stock prices have already reflected weaker refining margins and operating performance trends anticipated for 2Q24E. </li></ul>

The prolonged interest rate upcycle and USD appreciation pose downside risks to global oil demand and crude oil prices.Moreover, the initiation of new refining capacity is pressuring energy stock prices, especially those in the refinery sector.Refinery stock prices have already reflected weaker refining margins and operating performance trends anticipated for 2Q24E. 

Energy (Upstream-Downstream) - Weak 2Q24E Earnings for Refineries

<ul><li>The tensions between Hamas and Israel in Gaza have intensified due to Iran's involvement, raising global concerns that the situation could escalate into a regional war.</li><li>Israel's insistence on retaliating against Iran has heightened these tensions, which could lead to disruptions in oil supply, potentially persisting until 2H24E.</li><li>This could pose upside risk to oil prices, albeit limited, given the fragility of global economic growth and oil demand. </li></ul>

The tensions between Hamas and Israel in Gaza have intensified due to Iran's involvement, raising global concerns that the situation could escalate into a regional war.Israel's insistence on retaliating against Iran has heightened these tensions, which could lead to disruptions in oil supply, potentially persisting until 2H24E.This could pose upside risk to oil prices, albeit limited, given the fragility of global economic growth and oil demand. 

Energy (Oil) - Tensions in the Middle East May Intensify - APRIL 17, 2024

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We remain optimistic about PTTEP’s new 5-year investment plan given the budget of US$29.1bn,which will focus on existing and developing projects and target a 3.3% CAGR for sales volume in2022-27</li>
<li>3.3% CAGR sales growth guidance for 2023-27 The 5-year production and investment plan target a 3.3% CAGR for sales volume in 2022-27, from existing and developing projects.</li>
<li>The production is guided to remain flat YoY in 2023 and increase by 8%/9% in 2024/2025 respectively on the back of G1/61 production ramp up to full capacity</li>
</ul>


We remain optimistic about PTTEP’s new 5-year investment plan given the budget of US$29.1bn,which will focus on existing and developing projects and target a 3.3% CAGR for sales volume in2022-27
3.3% CAGR sales growth guidance for 2023-27 The 5-year production and investment plan target a 3.3% CAGR for sales volume in 2022-27, from existing and developing projects.
The production is guided to remain flat YoY in 2023 and increase by 8%/9% in 2024/2025 respectively on the back of G1/61 production ramp up to full capacity


PTTEP : Softening ASP to Hammer Sales Growth

<ul>
<li>The 3Q22 net profit marked a new quarterly high of Bt24.2bn, falling out better than ours and consensus forecast by 15%.The analyst meeting also came out in a positive tone</li>
<li>Sales growth drove 3Q22 profit The company reported its 3Q22 net profit of Bt24.2bn (+153% YoY, +17% QoQ).The YoY growth was driven by 15% and 21% rises in sales volume</li>
<li>Sales volume grew by 15% YoY and 3%QoQ to 478 kBOED in 3Q22, aided by the production commencement of G1/61 (Erawan) project in 2Q22,higher nomination from Oman block 61 project</li>
</ul>


The 3Q22 net profit marked a new quarterly high of Bt24.2bn, falling out better than ours and consensus forecast by 15%.The analyst meeting also came out in a positive tone
Sales growth drove 3Q22 profit The company reported its 3Q22 net profit of Bt24.2bn (+153% YoY, +17% QoQ).The YoY growth was driven by 15% and 21% rises in sales volume
Sales volume grew by 15% YoY and 3%QoQ to 478 kBOED in 3Q22, aided by the production commencement of G1/61 (Erawan) project in 2Q22,higher nomination from Oman block 61 project


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<h2>RECENT DEVELOPMENTS</h2>
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<ul>
<li>The delivery of gas from the Zawtika field will be suspended for two weeks after a leakage was found at an onshore pipeline yesterday, which resulted in a drop in gas pressure.</li>
<li>PTTEP is investigating the cause of the leakage, with the preliminary findings showing no trace of an explosion or fire.</li>
<li>Limited impact: PTTEP holds 80% in this project, which has a daily gas output of approximately 322 MMSCFD. </li>
</ul>
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RECENT DEVELOPMENTS





The delivery of gas from the Zawtika field will be suspended for two weeks after a leakage was found at an onshore pipeline yesterday, which resulted in a drop in gas pressure.
PTTEP is investigating the cause of the leakage, with the preliminary findings showing no trace of an explosion or fire.
Limited impact: PTTEP holds 80% in this project, which has a daily gas output of approximately 322 MMSCFD. 






Big Cap Update - PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP)

Thailand

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited explores for crude oil and natural gas, develops fields for production, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company is a subsidiary of the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

PTT Exploration & Production P (PTTEP-R TB)

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PTT Exploration & Production P (PTTEP-R TB)

Energy (Upstream-Downstream) - Weak 2Q24E Earnings for Refineries

Refinery stock prices have already reflected weaker refining margins and operating performance trends anticipated for 2Q24E.

Krungthai XSpring

Energy (Oil) - Tensions in the Middle East May Intensify - APRIL 17, 2024

The tensions between Hamas and Israel in Gaza have intensified due to Iran's involvement, raising global concerns that the situation could escalate...

Krungthai XSpring

PTTEP : Softening ASP to Hammer Sales Growth

We remain optimistic about PTTEP’s new 5-year investment plan given the budget of US$29.1bn, which will focus on existing and developing projects...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTTEP : 3Q22 Profit Market New High

The 3Q22 net profit marked a new quarterly high of Bt24.2bn, falling out better than ours and consensus forecast by 15%. The analyst meeting also...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Big Cap Update - PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP)

PTTEP is the largest Thai E&P operator, with proved reserves at 1,350 million barrels of oil equivalent at the end of 2021.

Krungthai XSpring

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52-week Range

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