Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

PTT Exploration & Production P / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>PTTEP has acquired a 10% stake in the Ghasha Concession in UAE from Wintershall Dea Middle East GmbH.</li><li>The transaction was completed on June 11, 2024, but the transaction value has not been disclosed.</li><li>The five-year Capex plan for 2024-28E is estimated at USD2,300mn (at the PTTEP level).</li></ul>

PTTEP has acquired a 10% stake in the Ghasha Concession in UAE from Wintershall Dea Middle East GmbH.The transaction was completed on June 11, 2024, but the transaction value has not been disclosed.The five-year Capex plan for 2024-28E is estimated at USD2,300mn (at the PTTEP level).

Flash News - Ptt Exploration and Production

<ul><li>PTTEP is a cyclical play whose share price has a strong correlation with crude oil prices at 80%.</li><li>The tensions in the Middle East could pose significant risks to oil supply and the share price should the situation escalate into a regional war.</li><li>Our valuation metrics suggest that the stock is attractive in terms of the current valuation, amid flat EPS growth in 2024- 26E, with limited upside in regard to the tactical risk.</li></ul>

PTTEP is a cyclical play whose share price has a strong correlation with crude oil prices at 80%.The tensions in the Middle East could pose significant risks to oil supply and the share price should the situation escalate into a regional war.Our valuation metrics suggest that the stock is attractive in terms of the current valuation, amid flat EPS growth in 2024- 26E, with limited upside in regard to the tactical risk.

Ptt Exploration and Production -In-Line NP in 1Q24 and Stronger Momentum in 2Q24E

<ul><li>PTTEP is a cyclical play whose share price has a strong correlation with crude oil prices at 80%.</li><li>Hence, the YTD increase in crude oil prices, attributed to concerns regarding tight supply amid escalating tensions in the Middle East — particularly in the event of a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran — could act as a short-term catalyst for the share price.</li><li>Our valuation metrics suggest that the stock is attractive in terms of the current valuation, amid flat EPS growth in 2024-26E, with limited upside in regard to the tactical risk. </li></ul>

PTTEP is a cyclical play whose share price has a strong correlation with crude oil prices at 80%.Hence, the YTD increase in crude oil prices, attributed to concerns regarding tight supply amid escalating tensions in the Middle East — particularly in the event of a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran — could act as a short-term catalyst for the share price.Our valuation metrics suggest that the stock is attractive in terms of the current valuation, amid flat EPS growth in 2024-26E, with limited upside in regard to the tactical risk. 

Ptt Exploration and Production -Expect Flat 1Q24E NP QoQ and Stronger Momentum in 2Q24E

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating on the energy sector due to external factors, including Trump 2.0 policies, the US-China trade war, and risks from domestic government policies related to energy pricing that may pose downside risk to the 2025-26E earnings forecasts.</li><li>However, downside risks for SET ENERGY appear more limited as the implied EPS has declined near its average level, indicating that market expectations for EPS have adjusted closer to the consensus.</li><li>We reiterate our preference for downstream over upstream players and favor refiners over oil retailers. </li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating on the energy sector due to external factors, including Trump 2.0 policies, the US-China trade war, and risks from domestic government policies related to energy pricing that may pose downside risk to the 2025-26E earnings forecasts.However, downside risks for SET ENERGY appear more limited as the implied EPS has declined near its average level, indicating that market expectations for EPS have adjusted closer to the consensus.We reiterate our preference for downstream over upstream players and favor refiners over oil retailers. 

Energy (Upstream-Downstream) - DECEMBER 17, 2024

<ul>
<li>We expect the energy sector to deliver a mixed performance in 3Q24E.</li>
<li>We maintain a Neutral investment rating on the sector, reflecting weak industry indicators in 2H24E (e.g., oil prices, refining margins, marketing margins).</li>
<li>In addition, we downgrade our recommendation for refinery stocks (BCP and TOP) to Outperform (from Buy) due to tactical factors, as their share prices have risen in line with improving refining margins. </li>
</ul>


We expect the energy sector to deliver a mixed performance in 3Q24E.
We maintain a Neutral investment rating on the sector, reflecting weak industry indicators in 2H24E (e.g., oil prices, refining margins, marketing margins).
In addition, we downgrade our recommendation for refinery stocks (BCP and TOP) to Outperform (from Buy) due to tactical factors, as their share prices have risen in line with improving refining margins. 


Industry Update - Energy (Upstream-Downstream)

Thailand

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited explores for crude oil and natural gas, develops fields for production, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company is a subsidiary of the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

PTT Exploration & Production P (PTTEP-R TB)

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PTT Exploration & Production P (PTTEP-R TB)

Flash News - Ptt Exploration and Production

PTTEP has acquired a 10% stake in the Ghasha Concession in UAE from Wintershall Dea Middle East GmbH. The transaction was completed on June 11, 2024

Krungthai XSpring

Ptt Exploration and Production -In-Line NP in 1Q24 and Stronger Momentum in 2Q24E

The tensions in the Middle East could pose significant risks to oil supply and the share price should the situation escalate into a regional war.

Krungthai XSpring

Ptt Exploration and Production -Expect Flat 1Q24E NP QoQ and Stronger Momentum in 2Q24E

Our valuation metrics suggest that the stock is attractive in terms of the current valuation, amid flat EPS growth in 2024-26E, with limited upside...

Krungthai XSpring

Energy (Upstream-Downstream) - DECEMBER 17, 2024

We reiterate our preference for downstream over upstream players and favor refiners over oil retailers. Our top pick remains BCP (Outperform; FV at...

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update - Energy (Upstream-Downstream)

We maintain a Neutral investment rating on the sector, reflecting weak industry indicators in 2H24E (e.g., oil prices, refining margins, marketing...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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