Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in favour of more specific targets, to be pursued by bilateral negotiations/ultimatums in addition to the usual multilateral channels. The Trump team is targeting four distinct areas to help reduce the bilateral trade imbalance, all of which touch on what the Chinese authorities perceive as vital national interests, so it is difficult to identify any…

The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in favour of more specific targets, to be pursued by bilateral negotiations/ultimatums in addition to the usual multilateral channels. The Trump team is targeting four distinct areas to help reduce the bilateral trade imbalance, all of which touch on what the Chinese authorities perceive as vital national interests, so it is difficult to identify any…

Trump and China; the Calm Before the Storm?

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

While earnings integers on a number of equity market indices have been falling for a while, equities have held up extremely well globally and indeed made strong gains over the last five years. As measured by MSCI world, equities have risen 48% in USD terms, compounding at 8%. MXAPJ has done less well , up only 10% in 5 years for a Cagr of 2%. Index earnings have actually fallen  over that period in Asia in dollar terms by about 15% but the lack of a meaningful risk free rate of return has kept…

While earnings integers on a number of equity market indices have been falling for a while, equities have held up extremely well globally and indeed made strong gains over the last five years. As measured by MSCI world, equities have risen 48% in USD terms, compounding at 8%. MXAPJ has done less well , up only 10% in 5 years for a Cagr of 2%. Index earnings have actually fallen  over that period in Asia in dollar terms by about 15% but the lack of a meaningful risk free rate of return has kept…

Money Matters: Is the Fed Behind the Curve?

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Wall Street has projected its wildest fantasies onto the largely blank canvas Trump provided, but this is politics reinvented as performance art.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">As the lack of policy coherence or even consistency becomes painfully clear, investors risk a degree of buyer’s remorse, reflected in the stalling USD, financials etc. rallies.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">
Globally, the macro and inflation data surprise indices have spiked further YTD - the turnaround in the Eurozone is the most impressive and least expected by the consensus or…</li>
</ul>


Wall Street has projected its wildest fantasies onto the largely blank canvas Trump provided, but this is politics reinvented as performance art.
As the lack of policy coherence or even consistency becomes painfully clear, investors risk a degree of buyer’s remorse, reflected in the stalling USD, financials etc. rallies.

Globally, the macro and inflation data surprise indices have spiked further YTD - the turnaround in the Eurozone is the most impressive and least expected by the consensus or…


'America First' Agenda Remains Contradictory, Vietnam Trip Notes…

Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/money-matters-turkey-on-the-brink" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:7953">Money Matters: Turkey on the Brink?</a>). Mexico has found itself at the sharp end of rhetoric from the US president-elect but the economy was already in trouble.  Is another Tequila crisis brewing (or distilling)?Mexico's current account deficit has been widening since 2010 and stands at around 3.5% of GDP. External debt has roughly doubled since 2009 and stands at about…

Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: Money Matters: Turkey on the Brink?). Mexico has found itself at the sharp end of rhetoric from the US president-elect but the economy was already in trouble.  Is another Tequila crisis brewing (or distilling)?Mexico's current account deficit has been widening since 2010 and stands at around 3.5% of GDP. External debt has roughly doubled since 2009 and stands at about…

Money Matters: Could Tequila Mixed with Moutai Be Explosive.

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets.  It is evident that a significant correction in the USD has occurred in the first week of the year.  This may reflect significantly stronger than expected economic indicators in a range of countries other than the USA, suggesting that a cyclical upswing in the global economy is underway since around Q4 last year, helping lift support for global asset prices and investment outside of the USA.  It may reflect a natural cooling in the outlook for the Trump-effect on the USA economy after a surge of optimism late last year.  It may reflect a spillover from a rebound in Chinese yuan engineered by a squeeze in offshore CNH liquidity.  CNH volatility around the turn of the year is starting to look like a regular occurrence, after similar developments a year earlier.

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets.  It is evident that a significant correction in the USD has occurred in the first week of the year.  This may reflect significantly stronger than expected economic indicators in a range of countries other than the USA, suggesting that a cyclical upswing in the global economy is underway since around Q4 last year, helping lift support for global asset prices and investment outside of the USA.  It may reflect a natural cooling in the outlook for the Trump-effect on the USA economy after a surge of optimism late last year.  It may reflect a spillover from a rebound in Chinese yuan engineered by a squeeze in offshore CNH liquidity.  CNH volatility around the turn of the year is starting to look like a regular occurrence, after similar developments a year earlier.

Broadening Evidence of Global Economic Recovery

United States

Prudential Financial, Inc. provides financial services throughout the United States and several locations worldwide. The Company offers a variety of products and services, including life insurance, mutual funds, annuities, pension, and retirement related services, as well as administration and asset management.

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Prudential Financial (PRU US)

Trump and China; the Calm Before the Storm?

The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in...

John-Paul Smith

Money Matters: Is the Fed Behind the Curve?

While earnings integers on a number of equity market indices have been falling for a while, equities have held up extremely well globally and...

Stewart Paterson

'America First' Agenda Remains Contradictory, Vietnam Trip Notes…

Wall Street has projected its wildest fantasies onto the largely blank canvas Trump provided, but this is politics reinvented as performance...

Sean Maher

Money Matters: Could Tequila Mixed with Moutai Be Explosive.

Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: Money Matters: Turkey...

Stewart Paterson

Broadening Evidence of Global Economic Recovery

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets. It is evident that a significant...

Greg Gibbs

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