Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Fed Wednesday, where market will be surprised by a more hawkish than expected statement. Risk is to the upside for greater US dollar strength </li></ul><ul><li>Euro crosses &amp; global macro traders will still be digesting the Draghi surprise &amp; the epitome of a poorly placed sentence (What were they thinking!?)</li></ul><ul><li>ECB surprise &amp; price action last week is not similar to the BoJ &amp; Yen movements, ‘same same but very different’. The market is ‘wrong’ to jump the gun on no further QE in the EZ</li></ul>

Fed Wednesday, where market will be surprised by a more hawkish than expected statement. Risk is to the upside for greater US dollar strength Euro crosses &amp; global macro traders will still be digesting the Draghi surprise &amp; the epitome of a poorly placed sentence (What were they thinking!?)ECB surprise &amp; price action last week is not similar to the BoJ &amp; Yen movements, ‘same same but very different’. The market is ‘wrong’ to jump the gun on no further QE in the EZ

Global Macro Take: WK 11 - ECB Digestion, Fed Wednesday & Potentially Risk-On Reversal

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

In addition to Whiskey investing, or buying paintings of Great Masters, there are truly great opportunities to invest, learn and derive enjoyment from the activity and art of investing.Jerry Seinfeld made headlines with his Porsche collection this week, though showing you can also lose on car investing…Cuban cigars, most especially special humidor editions, have proved good investments at times… when not all smoked. The holy grail here perhaps has been “Cuban Davidoffs” and Cohibas from the early 90s.   We can’t all be so lucky as to play with expensive cars or chase expensive wines. But there are a few things we can and should do.  Gold should be at the top of the list for so many reasons.  Not as a fad, but as a generational practice. There is a way to focus on long term premiums in gold.

In addition to Whiskey investing, or buying paintings of Great Masters, there are truly great opportunities to invest, learn and derive enjoyment from the activity and art of investing.Jerry Seinfeld made headlines with his Porsche collection this week, though showing you can also lose on car investing…Cuban cigars, most especially special humidor editions, have proved good investments at times… when not all smoked. The holy grail here perhaps has been “Cuban Davidoffs” and Cohibas from the early 90s.   We can’t all be so lucky as to play with expensive cars or chase expensive wines. But there are a few things we can and should do.  Gold should be at the top of the list for so many reasons.  Not as a fad, but as a generational practice. There is a way to focus on long term premiums in gold.

Collectibles and the Many Ways to Buy Gold: Focus on Premium Generation Strategy

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 8 March 2016<div>Cycle inflection points</div>To view click on this link: <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/2hBvPl15" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/2hBvPl15</a> 4:14 min.<div>Our focus is on inflection turn signals across classes given we are entering a cycle turn date today that may stretch a few days but this week ST tops are due.</div>WTI close to 38 resistance after a big run is due for a at least a pullback within our more bullish March cycle.<div>CAD at even more interesting chart support for a short CAD/long USD. March is expected to…</div>

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 8 March 2016Cycle inflection pointsTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/2hBvPl15 4:14 min.Our focus is on inflection turn signals across classes given we are entering a cycle turn date today that may stretch a few days but this week ST tops are due.WTI close to 38 resistance after a big run is due for a at least a pullback within our more bullish March cycle.CAD at even more interesting chart support for a short CAD/long USD. March is expected to…

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and neo-Keynesian piece of work, wants to do away with the $100 bill based on evidence most big bills are used for criminal purposes.Citing work by Harvard colleagues from <a href="http://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/awp/awp52" target="_blank"> Harvard Study</a>, Summers is fully armed, failing of course to realize that criminals were around before him and will continue to launder money for a long time to come, even if they have to do…

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and neo-Keynesian piece of work, wants to do away with the $100 bill based on evidence most big bills are used for criminal purposes.Citing work by Harvard colleagues from  Harvard Study, Summers is fully armed, failing of course to realize that criminals were around before him and will continue to launder money for a long time to come, even if they have to do…

Keynesian Brain Twister: What Happens When We Get Inflation & Negative Rates?

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

United States

American International Group, Inc. is an international insurance organization serving commercial, institutional and individual customers. AIG provides property-casualty insurance, life insurance and retirement services.

MetLife, Inc. provides individual insurance, employee benefits and financial services with operations throughout the United States and the regions of Latin America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The Company's products include life insurance, annuities, automobile and homeowners insurance, retail banking and other financial services to individuals as well as group insurance.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. and its subsidiaries provide insurance brokerage, risk management, employee benefit, and other related services to clients in the United States and abroad. The Company's principal activity is the negotiation and placement of insurance for its clients. Gallagher also specializes in furnishing risk management services.

Aon PLC is a professional services provider. The Company is comprised of risk and insurance brokerage consulting. Aon's services include helping manage risk for clients, negotiating and placing insurance risk with other carriers, and advising clients related to health and benefits, retirement, compensation, strategic human capital, and human resource outsourcing.

Chubb Limited operates as a property and casualty insurance company. The Company provides commercial and personal property, casualty, and personal accident and supplemental health insurance, reinsurance, and life insurance to a diverse group of clients.

Aflac, Inc. is a general business holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental insurance to individuals in the United States and Japan.  Aflac's products include accident/disability plans, cancer expense plans, short-term disability plans, sickness and hospital indemnity plans, hospital intensive care plans, and fixed-benefit dental plans.

Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. is a professional services firm providing advice and solutions in the areas of risk, strategy, and human capital. Marsh & McLennan offers analysis, advice, and transactional capabilities to clients worldwide.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based insurance and financial services company that provides reinsurance and insurance products on a worldwide basis.

The Travelers Companies, Inc. provides commercial and personal property and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals.

Prudential Financial, Inc. provides financial services throughout the United States and several locations worldwide. The Company offers a variety of products and services, including life insurance, mutual funds, annuities, pension, and retirement related services, as well as administration and asset management.

China Life Insurance Company Ltd. offers a wide range of life, accident, and health insurance products and services.

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc., through subsidiaries, offers property, casualty and life insurance, and asset management services.

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides a variety of insurance service in China.  The Company writes property, casualty, and life insurance.  Ping An Insurance also offers financial services.

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

AXA SA is an insurance company which also provides related financial services. The Company offers life and non-life insurance, savings and pension products, and asset management services.  AXA operates in both domestic and international markets.

Allianz SE, through subsidiaries, offers insurance and financial services. The Company offers property and casualty, life and health, credit, motor vehicle, and travel insurance, as well as and fund management services.

Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG (MunichRe) provides financial services. The Company offers reinsurance, insurance, and asset management services. MunichRe has subsidiaries in most major financial centers throughout the world.

Zurich Insurance Group AG provides insurance-based financial services. The Company offers general and life insurance products and services for individuals, small businesses, commercial enterprises, mid-sized and large corporations, and multinational companies.

Muenchener Rueckversicherungs- (MURGY US)

AXA SA is an insurance company which also provides related financial services. The Company offers life and non-life insurance, savings and pension products, and asset management services. AXA operates in both domestic and international markets.

The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provide personal and commercial automobile insurance and other specialty property-casualty insurance and related services throughout the United States.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Progressive Corp (PGR US)

Global Macro Take: WK 11 - ECB Digestion, Fed Wednesday & Potentially Risk-On Reversal

Fed Wednesday, where market will be surprised by a more hawkish than expected statement. Risk is to the upside for greater US dollar strength Euro...

Kay Van-Petersen

Collectibles and the Many Ways to Buy Gold: Focus on Premium Generation Strategy

In addition to Whiskey investing, or buying paintings of Great Masters, there are truly great opportunities to invest, learn and derive enjoyment...

Charles De Trenck

Cycle Inflection Turns

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 8 March 2016Cycle inflection pointsTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/2hBvPl15 4:14 min.Our focus...

Thomas Schroeder

Keynesian Brain Twister: What Happens When We Get Inflation & Negative Rates?

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and...

Charles De Trenck

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence. Bottom...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)