ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

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<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </p>
</div><h3>The Wheels of business are starting to turn</h3><p>We highlight below the increases in business activity we are starting to see in Indonesia, whether it be distressed asset sales, a pick-up in investment activity, or new capex plans. There has also been more activity in the bond market, which is often a precursor to inflows into equities. There have been some positive political developments in Indonesia, with a returning Muslim leader not enjoying the impunity he once used to and an interesting arrest by the KPK (corruption eradication commission). This all points towards a more optimistic outlook for the Indonesian market. Please read below the fold for more detail.</p><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rcep-is-a-boon-for-japan-korea-china-not-so-much-for-asean-anz" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45628" rel="noopener">RCEP Is a Boon for Japan, Korea, China; Not so Much for ASEAN, ANZ,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/prasenjit-k-basu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:612" rel="noopener">Prasenjit K. Basu</a> comments on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and its implications for Asia. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-external-fundamentals-improve" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45781" rel="noopener">Asia External Fundamentals Improve,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sharmila-whelan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1728" rel="noopener">Sharmila Whelan</a> takes a look at Asia's external economics and finds a relatively healthy picture.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2021-outlook-will-the-dollar-s-long-term-devaluation-continue" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45801" rel="noopener">2021 Outlook: Will The Dollar’s Long-Term Devaluation Continue?</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-j-howell" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2312" rel="noopener">Michael J. Howell</a> provides us with his views on the USD in the coming year. </p><h3>Equity Bottom Up</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-beverage-thbev-sp-a-beer-fuelled-future" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) - A Beer Fuelled Future</a>, CrossASEAN Insight Provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> returns to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> after its recent FY09/2020 numbers and find a more positive outlook ahead. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matahari-department-store-lppf-ij-slow-transition-to-newness" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45784" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Slow Transition to Newness,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> reports back following following an update from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> management.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener"></a>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lippo-karawaci-lpkr-ij-reasons-to-be-cheerful" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ) - Reasons to Be Cheerful</a>, CrossASEAN Inight Provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> provides an update on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lippo-karawaci-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ),</a> with a new high caliber management team driving its core property, and other businesses forward.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lippo-karawaci-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3121:1" rel="noopener"></a>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bumrungrad-hospital-pub-co-bh-tb-shedding-bdms-in-a-side-issue-to-recovery" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) - Shedding BDMS in a Side Issue to Recovery</a>, CrossASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> revists the stock after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-dusit-medical-services-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB)</a> announced that it will sell all of its stake in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumrungrad-hospital-pub-co" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)</a>.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bfi-finance-indonesia-bfin-ij-changing-up-a-gear" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Changing up a Gear</a>, Cross ASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> which is now getting back to business after a period focused on loan restructuring. </p><p>In Thailand<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-radar-rojukiss-aspires-to-become-l-oreal-of-thailand" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> IPO Radar: Rojukiss Aspires to Become L'Oréal of Thailand</a>, our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> met up with Rojukiss' entire C-Suite prior to the IPO before arriving with more useful information around the company and its upcoming listing. </p><p> In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-tabungan-negara-mortgage-powerhouse" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45823" rel="noopener">Bank Tabungan Negara – Mortgage Powerhouse,</a> Banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> zeros in on Indonesia's largest low-cost subsidised mortgage provider. </p><div><div id="ember46605"><section></section></div></div><div><div id="ember46682"><div id="ember46683">
<div>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dbs-india-merger-approved" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45730" rel="noopener">DBS – India Merger Approved,</a> Banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> reports back on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dbs-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1" rel="noopener">DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP)</a> recently approved acquisition in India. </div>
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</div></div></div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/esr-reit-sabana-furphys-and-fear-mongering" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45763" rel="noopener">ESR-REIT/Sabana: Furphys And Fear-Mongering,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> revisits this ongoing merger situation.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bangkok-bank-bbl-tb-nvdr-limit-lowered-to-25-should-trigger-ftse-deletion" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bangkok Bank (BBL TB): NVDR Limit Lowered to 25%; Should Trigger FTSE Deletion</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Brian Freitas</a> discusses the fact that the Thai NVDR Company would not be extending the approval to hold up to 35% of the paid-up capital of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a> and the limit would be lowered to 25% from 24th December onwards. </p><div><div id="ember48744"><div id="ember48745">
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bgrim-advantage-from-declining-gas-cost" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> BGRIM: Advantage from Declining Gas Cost</a>, our friends at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> report back after the company's analyst meeting which left them with a positive tone. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/egco-seeking-new-expansion-opportunities" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> EGCO: Seeking New Expansion Opportunities</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> returns to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electricity-generating-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Electricity Generating (EGCO TB)</a> after its 3Q2020 results and its analyst meeting last week, which came out with a neutral bias.</p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sappe-expect-4q20-earnings-to-grow-slightly-yoy" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SAPPE: Expect 4Q20 Earnings to Grow Slightly YoY</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> report back  after the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sappe-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3915:1" rel="noopener">Sappe Pcl (SAPPE TB)</a> analyst briefing, which left a positive slant. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toa-gradual-growth-through-total-solution-services" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> TOA: Gradual Growth Through Total Solution Services</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> report back having attended the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toa-paint-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24235:1" rel="noopener">TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB)</a> analyst briefing.</p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ea-ev-ess-business-success-to-drive-future-earnings" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> EA: EV-ESS Business Success to Drive Future Earnings</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> feeds back after the analyst meeting of<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energy-absolute-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Energy Absolute (EA TB)</a> with left a neutral tone, with the expectation of a flat 4Q2020. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cbg-woody-c-lock-and-vietnam-market-are-a-key-catalyst" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> CBG: WOODY C+ LOCK and Vietnam Market Are a Key Catalyst</a>, our friends<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> report back from te <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carabao-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12027:1" rel="noopener">Carabao Group (CBG TB)</a> analyst meeting with a positive view.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/prm-maintain-positive-view-toward-earnings-growth-momentum-in-2021e" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PRM: Maintain Positive View Toward Earnings Growth Momentum in 2021E</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> report back on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prima-marine-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27955:1" rel="noopener">Prima Marine PCL (PRM TB)</a> after coming out of the company's analyst briefing with a neutral stance. </p>
</div></div></div><h3>Sector and Thematic</h3><p>In Thailand<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-stocks-to-own-in-thailand-vol-31" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 31</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/a-stotz-investment-research" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> A. Stotz Investment Research</a> highlights 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to them based upon their FVMR Methodology. </p><p>In a <strong>Smartkarma Originals</strong> Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-healthcare-coming-of-age" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45676" rel="noopener"><strong>Asian Healthcare - Coming of Age</strong>,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/kemp-dolliver-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:13" rel="noopener">Kemp Dolliver, CFA</a> explores leading unlisted healthcare companies in China, India, and ASEAN that have raised capital and paper to be potential listing candidates. </p><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In Indonesia<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/morning-views-asia-glenmark-pharmaceuticals-times-china-tower-bersama-infrastructure" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Morning Views Asia: Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Times China, Tower Bersama Infrastructure</a>, Senior Credit Analyst<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> provides a view on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tower-bersama-infrastructure" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG IJ).</a></p><p>In Indonesia<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-high-yield-is-hot-china-is-not-can-indonesia-stay-in-the-sweet-spot" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Asia High Yield Is Hot, China Is Not. Can Indonesia Stay in the Sweet Spot?</a>, credit specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/derek-silva" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Derek Silva</a> discusses why Indonesia remains in a sweet spot for foreign inflows and can potentially reverse the poor year-to-date performance relative to the rest of the region. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/morning-views-asia-agung-podomoro-land-f6b44feb-fa6b-490e-a2c8-4a996248e3ae" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> reports back after Fitch upgraded its ratings on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agung-podomoro-land-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Agung Podomoro Land (APLN IJ)</a> to CCC- from C. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alam-sutera-tear-sheet-lucror-analytics-52578f0a-456f-47b8-9018-6663d0ef30d7" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Alam Sutera - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics</a>, credit specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> provides a bird's eye view on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alam-sutera-realty-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI IJ)</a>. </p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  
The Wheels of business are starting to turnWe highlight below the increases in business activity we are starting to see in Indonesia, whether it be distressed asset sales, a pick-up in investment activity, or new capex plans. There has also been more activity in the bond market, which is often a precursor to inflows into equities. There have been some positive political developments in Indonesia, with a returning Muslim leader not enjoying the impunity he once used to and an interesting arrest by the KPK (corruption eradication commission). This all points towards a more optimistic outlook for the Indonesian market. Please read below the fold for more detail.Macro InsightsIn RCEP Is a Boon for Japan, Korea, China; Not so Much for ASEAN, ANZ, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Prasenjit K. Basu comments on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and its implications for Asia. In Asia External Fundamentals Improve,Sharmila Whelan takes a look at Asia's external economics and finds a relatively healthy picture.In 2021 Outlook: Will The Dollar’s Long-Term Devaluation Continue?Michael J. Howell provides us with his views on the USD in the coming year. Equity Bottom UpIn Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) - A Beer Fuelled Future, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh returns to look at Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) after its recent FY09/2020 numbers and find a more positive outlook ahead. In Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Slow Transition to Newness, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh reports back following following an update from Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) management.In Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ) - Reasons to Be Cheerful, CrossASEAN Inight Provider Angus Mackintosh provides an update on Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ), with a new high caliber management team driving its core property, and other businesses forward.In Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) - Shedding BDMS in a Side Issue to Recovery, CrossASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh revists the stock after Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB) announced that it will sell all of its stake in Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB).In BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Changing up a Gear, Cross ASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh revisits BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) which is now getting back to business after a period focused on loan restructuring. In Thailand IPO Radar: Rojukiss Aspires to Become L'Oréal of Thailand, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA met up with Rojukiss' entire C-Suite prior to the IPO before arriving with more useful information around the company and its upcoming listing.  In Bank Tabungan Negara – Mortgage Powerhouse, Banking specialist Thomas J. Monaco zeros in on Indonesia's largest low-cost subsidised mortgage provider. 
In DBS – India Merger Approved, Banking specialist Daniel Tabbush reports back on DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP) recently approved acquisition in India. 

In ESR-REIT/Sabana: Furphys And Fear-Mongering,David Blennerhassett revisits this ongoing merger situation.In Bangkok Bank (BBL TB): NVDR Limit Lowered to 25%; Should Trigger FTSE Deletion, Brian Freitas discusses the fact that the Thai NVDR Company would not be extending the approval to hold up to 35% of the paid-up capital of Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB) and the limit would be lowered to 25% from 24th December onwards. 
In BGRIM: Advantage from Declining Gas Cost, our friends at Country Group report back after the company's analyst meeting which left them with a positive tone. 
In EGCO: Seeking New Expansion Opportunities, Country Group returns to look at Electricity Generating (EGCO TB) after its 3Q2020 results and its analyst meeting last week, which came out with a neutral bias.
In SAPPE: Expect 4Q20 Earnings to Grow Slightly YoY, our friends at Country Group report back  after the Sappe Pcl (SAPPE TB) analyst briefing, which left a positive slant. 
In TOA: Gradual Growth Through Total Solution Services, Country Group report back having attended the TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB) analyst briefing.
In EA: EV-ESS Business Success to Drive Future Earnings, Country Group feeds back after the analyst meeting of Energy Absolute (EA TB) with left a neutral tone, with the expectation of a flat 4Q2020. 
In CBG: WOODY C+ LOCK and Vietnam Market Are a Key Catalyst, our friends Country Group report back from te Carabao Group (CBG TB) analyst meeting with a positive view.
In PRM: Maintain Positive View Toward Earnings Growth Momentum in 2021E, our friends at Country Group report back on Prima Marine PCL (PRM TB) after coming out of the company's analyst briefing with a neutral stance. 
Sector and ThematicIn Thailand The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 31, A. Stotz Investment Research highlights 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to them based upon their FVMR Methodology. In a Smartkarma Originals Insight, Asian Healthcare - Coming of Age,Kemp Dolliver, CFA explores leading unlisted healthcare companies in China, India, and ASEAN that have raised capital and paper to be potential listing candidates. Credit InsightsIn Indonesia Morning Views Asia: Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Times China, Tower Bersama Infrastructure, Senior Credit Analyst Trung Nguyen provides a view on Tower Bersama Infrastructure (TBIG IJ).In Indonesia Asia High Yield Is Hot, China Is Not. Can Indonesia Stay in the Sweet Spot?, credit specialist Derek Silva discusses why Indonesia remains in a sweet spot for foreign inflows and can potentially reverse the poor year-to-date performance relative to the rest of the region. In Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land, Trung Nguyen reports back after Fitch upgraded its ratings on Agung Podomoro Land (APLN IJ) to CCC- from C. In Alam Sutera - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics, credit specialist Trung Nguyen provides a bird's eye view on Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI IJ). 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - The Wheels of Business, Thai Bev, and Hospitals

Thailand

Principal Capital PCL is a property development company. The Company's primary objective is to develop property projects with a focus on the Central Business District (CBD) and prime area.

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Principal Capital (PRINC TB)

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - The Wheels of Business, Thai Bev, and Hospitals

The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South...

Angus Mackintosh

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