Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul class="ul1"><li class="li1">In this month’s analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we review the current dynamics behind the global economy and highlight a number of key positive developments that have greatly eased our concerns over the near term trajectory of the global economy. </li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li1">The near term trajectory of the GCSI (and therefore global economy) is dependent on two factors: </li></ul><ol class="ol1"><li class="li1">Whether or not the turmoil surrounding the Brexit is able to derail the ongoing ‘global process of runaway exuberance’ </li><li class="li1">A further stabilization in China’s economy</li></ol><ul class="ul1"><li class="li1">Preliminary European Union Consumer Confidence data for July (reflecting the impact of the Brexit) provides an indication that the Brexit has not derailed the ‘global process of runaway exuberance’.</li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li1">As indicated by our China Drag/Pull Indicator China’s economy is stabilizing, acting as less and less of a drag on the global economy. (In June the indicator increased to a level of -.44). As China’s economy continues to stabilize, the global process of runaway exuberance can be expected to continue.</li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li1">As the global process of runaway exuberance continues the GCSI can be expected to reach very elevated levels near 1 by late 2016/early 2017 (indicating the global economy is in the process of overheating). </li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li1">Despite the growing risks associated with an overheating global economy, global equity markets are expected to continue higher as we approach the late stages of runaway exuberance. </li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li1">As this dynamic continues to play out we recommend investors maintain overweight positions in Emerging Markets most exposed to a set of ‘key risk factors’ including Russia, Brazil, Chile, Malaysia, Peru and Turkey. </li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li1">As it has become increasingly apparent that the turmoil surrounding the Brexit has not derailed the global process of runaway exuberance we recommend restoring exposure to risk. </li></ul>

In this month’s analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we review the current dynamics behind the global economy and highlight a number of key positive developments that have greatly eased our concerns over the near term trajectory of the global economy. The near term trajectory of the GCSI (and therefore global economy) is dependent on two factors: Whether or not the turmoil surrounding the Brexit is able to derail the ongoing ‘global process of runaway exuberance’ A further stabilization in China’s economyPreliminary European Union Consumer Confidence data for July (reflecting the impact of the Brexit) provides an indication that the Brexit has not derailed the ‘global process of runaway exuberance’.As indicated by our China Drag/Pull Indicator China’s economy is stabilizing, acting as less and less of a drag on the global economy. (In June the indicator increased to a level of -.44). As China’s economy continues to stabilize, the global process of runaway exuberance can be expected to continue.As the global process of runaway exuberance continues the GCSI can be expected to reach very elevated levels near 1 by late 2016/early 2017 (indicating the global economy is in the process of overheating). Despite the growing risks associated with an overheating global economy, global equity markets are expected to continue higher as we approach the late stages of runaway exuberance. As this dynamic continues to play out we recommend investors maintain overweight positions in Emerging Markets most exposed to a set of ‘key risk factors’ including Russia, Brazil, Chile, Malaysia, Peru and Turkey. As it has become increasingly apparent that the turmoil surrounding the Brexit has not derailed the global process of runaway exuberance we recommend restoring exposure to risk. 

Outlook For Global Economy and Markets Through Late 2016

Taiwan

Taiwan Tea Corporation imports and sells motorcycles, building materials, frozen meats, and copper wires.  The Company also produces tea and operates in the commercial building leasing business.

Maywufa Company Ltd. manufactures and markets drugs as well as hair care and cosmetics products.  The Company's products include health and beauty aids such as vitamins, shampoos, hair fixatives, conditioners, and skincare products.

MedFirst Healthcare Services Inc. is a medical supplier, which also operates medical, healthcare and specialty supplies stores and provides home and health consultancy services.

Shin Shin Co., Ltd. operates in the department stores, supermarkets, movie theaters, and parking lot businesses.

Uni-President Enterprises Corp. manufactures, processes, and markets instant noodles, dairy products, frozen foods, soft drinks, soy sauces, canned pickles, meat products, animal feeds, aquatic feeds, edible oils, bread, cakes, and desserts.  The Company also operates vending machines and food distribution centers in Taiwan.

Lien Hwa Industrial Corporation manufactures and markets food products, such as flour, wheat, barley cereal, pizza, and pasta.  Also, the Company manufactures agricultural and mining tools as well as boats.

Great Wall Enterprise Co., Ltd. produces and markets livestock feeds, cooking oils, and meat products.

Lian Hwa Foods Corporation manufactures and markets foods, snacks, and beverages. The Company processes seaweed, nuts, potato chips, and jam. Also, Lian Hwa produces fresh food such as sandwich, sushi and cold noodle.

Charoen Pokphand Enterprise (Taiwan) Co., Ltd. produces and distributes animal feeds. Additionally, the Company operates in the poultry slaughtering and meat processing business.

Formosa Oilseed Processing Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells a variety of cooking oils, livestock and fish feeds, feed ingredients, and corn products.  The Company has an agreement with Hunt-Wesson Inc. to manufacture and market Hunt-Wesson's products.

Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited is an integrated healthcare information and content service provider. The Company uses product identification, authentication, and tracking system data for its healthcare information.

LAWSON, INC. operates a chain of convenience stores in Japan. The Company sells a variety of products including fast food, beverages, snacks, magazines, newspapers, and sundry goods.

Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc., operates retail drugstores that offer a wide variety of prescription and non-prescription drugs as well as general goods. Walgreens' also offers health services, including primary and acute care, wellness, pharmacy and disease management services and health and fitness.

CP Axtra Public Company Limited operates a retail discount store chain. The Company sells food and consumer products to its registered customers including wholesalers, retailers, small businesses, caterers, and private individuals who hold its member cards. CP Axtra serves customers in Thailand.

PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk operates a chain of retail supermarkets.

Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. operates a chain of retail grocery stores. The Company offers meats, cheese, dairy products, bakery, beer and wine, bulk foods, vitamins, and supplements. Sprouts Farmers Market serves customers throughout the United States.

Carrefour SA operates chains of supermarkets, hypermarkets, discount, cash and carry, and frozen food stores in Europe, the Americas, and Asia.

J Sainsbury plc retails food.  The Company operates Sainsbury supermarkets in the United Kingdom, convenience stores, an Internet-based home delivery service, and Sainsbury Bank.  The Bank offers saving accounts, credit cards, mortgages, insurance products, and consumer loans.

BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S. operates food and basic consumer goods discount stores in Turkey.  The Company provides an assortment of private label products.

Shoprite Holdings Limited operates as a investment holding company with subsidiaries operating in the supermarket, produce distribution, furniture retailing, and property holding industries.

President Chain Store Corp. operates seven-eleven convenience stores throughout Taiwan.  These chain stores also provide bill-payment service, ATM service, and photo development service.  The Company's other business areas include retail, logistics, and retail information system.

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President Chain Store (2912 TT)

Outlook For Global Economy and Markets Through Late 2016

In this month’s analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we review the current dynamics behind the global economy and highlight a...

David Riedel

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