Research from Atrium Research, Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research

Research from Atrium Research

Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on public equities in North America. Our investment philosophy takes a 3-5 year view on equities currently being overlooked by the market. Our research process emphasizes understanding the key performance metrics for each specific company, trustworthy management teams, unit economics, and an in-depth valuation analysis. 

Our research product includes in-depth initiation reports, research notes, thematic research pieces, and company fact sheets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We anticipate oil prices to remain within the US$80-$90 range, which will sustain the current uptick in E&amp;P capital expenditure and foster a strong environment for oilfield services firms.</li>
<li>Our peer group continues to trade at deep-value multiples; currently at 4.5x/4.0x 2024E/2025E EBITDA.</li>
<li>We highlight a few of our favourite small-cap names that we believe have significant upside as we move into H2/24.</li>
</ul>


We anticipate oil prices to remain within the US$80-$90 range, which will sustain the current uptick in E&amp;P capital expenditure and foster a strong environment for oilfield services firms.
Our peer group continues to trade at deep-value multiples; currently at 4.5x/4.0x 2024E/2025E EBITDA.
We highlight a few of our favourite small-cap names that we believe have significant upside as we move into H2/24.


<ul><li>We expect oilfield service stocks to continue to outperform in 2023 and beyond based on supportive oil price fundamentals, rising capex levels amongst E&amp;Ps, and pricing power leading to margin expansion </li><li>Despite the sector’s strong fundamental tailwinds and the probability for a multi-year commodity supercycle, oilfield service companies are still trading at trough-level multiples In order to end the oil supply deficit, additional rigs are required to be deployed; providing organic growth and pricing power for oilfield service names.</li><li>This will create another year of margin expansion for oilfield service stocks as they take advantage of operating leverage.</li></ul>

We expect oilfield service stocks to continue to outperform in 2023 and beyond based on supportive oil price fundamentals, rising capex levels amongst E&amp;Ps, and pricing power leading to margin expansion Despite the sector’s strong fundamental tailwinds and the probability for a multi-year commodity supercycle, oilfield service companies are still trading at trough-level multiples In order to end the oil supply deficit, additional rigs are required to be deployed; providing organic growth and pricing power for oilfield service names.This will create another year of margin expansion for oilfield service stocks as they take advantage of operating leverage.

Oilfield Services: Another Great Year Ahead

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.</li>
<li>Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.</li>
</ul>


Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.
The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.
Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.


Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

<ul>
<li>Last week we noted the S&amp;P 500 was testing support at 3800-3860 within its downtrend channel and that we were on watch for a potential bear market rally/oversold bounce.</li>
<li>This has officially begun following the break above 4030 on the S&amp;P 500, which was confirmed by bullish reversals on the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, DAX, Hang Seng, MCHI, KWEB.</li>
<li>As long as 3858 holds, it is possible the S&amp;P 500 breaks above the longer-term downtrend near the 200-day MA, which would mean the start of a new bull market.</li>
</ul>


Last week we noted the S&amp;P 500 was testing support at 3800-3860 within its downtrend channel and that we were on watch for a potential bear market rally/oversold bounce.
This has officially begun following the break above 4030 on the S&amp;P 500, which was confirmed by bullish reversals on the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, DAX, Hang Seng, MCHI, KWEB.
As long as 3858 holds, it is possible the S&amp;P 500 breaks above the longer-term downtrend near the 200-day MA, which would mean the start of a new bull market.


Bear Market Rally With Potential for More; Buy Ideas in Shipping, Land Drilling, Refining, Chemicals

<p>The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights.<strong> </strong></p>

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights. 

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

Canada

Precision Drilling Corporation is an integrated oilfield drilling and energy service company providing services to the oil and gas industry.  The Company provides oilfield rentals, well services, catering services, and drilling services through its several business units.

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Precision Drilling (PD CN)

Oilfield Services: Still Way Too Cheap

We anticipate oil prices to remain within the US$80-$90 range, which will sustain the current uptick in E&P capital expenditure and foster a strong...

Atrium Research

Oilfield Services: Another Great Year Ahead

We expect oilfield service stocks to continue to outperform in 2023 and beyond based on supportive oil price fundamentals, rising capex levels...

Atrium Research

Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

Our $IWM target (its 200-day MA) has been hit and our $SPX target is less than 1% away. Still, the rally is poised to continue following breaks in...

Vermilion Research

Bear Market Rally With Potential for More; Buy Ideas in Shipping, Land Drilling, Refining, Chemicals

With the $SPX reversing topside the 1-month downtrend (at 4030), the bear market rally is underway with the potential for more. Resistance levels:...

Vermilion Research

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

The MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a...

Vermilion Research

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