Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Microchip used to be the bellwether for semiconductor demand After many semis guided weaknesses in automotive, industrial, and digital consumer much earlier, Microchip's 19% miss in 1Q24 gives no surprise.</li>
<li>
<strong>Why the worst among all?</strong> We attributed Microchip to over 85% of its products on automotive, industrial, and digital consumer. Other semis have higher exposure on PC and comm.</li>
<li>
<strong>Priced in?</strong> We estimate over 20% y/y decline in 2024 sales vs. Bloomberg's -8% y/y. 2024E EPS of US$2.94 is likely below US$1. Price is only 10% below historical peak.</li>
</ul>


Microchip used to be the bellwether for semiconductor demand After many semis guided weaknesses in automotive, industrial, and digital consumer much earlier, Microchip's 19% miss in 1Q24 gives no surprise.

Why the worst among all? We attributed Microchip to over 85% of its products on automotive, industrial, and digital consumer. Other semis have higher exposure on PC and comm.

Priced in? We estimate over 20% y/y decline in 2024 sales vs. Bloomberg's -8% y/y. 2024E EPS of US$2.94 is likely below US$1. Price is only 10% below historical peak.


From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.</li>
<li>Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.</li>
<li>We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.</li>
</ul>


Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.
Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.
We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.


First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Leader Energy Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leader-energy-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39938:1" rel="noopener">Leader Energy Holdings (1814173D MK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$215m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. </li>
<li>Leader Energy Holdings (LE) is an independent power producer (IPP) primarily engaged in the development, ownership, O&amp;M of power assets and projects.</li>
<li>LE’s revenue has grown on the back of higher power generation as well as coal price increases over the track record period, which drove profitability up. </li>
</ul>



Leader Energy Holdings (1814173D MK) is looking to raise up to US$215m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. 
Leader Energy Holdings (LE) is an independent power producer (IPP) primarily engaged in the development, ownership, O&amp;M of power assets and projects.
LE’s revenue has grown on the back of higher power generation as well as coal price increases over the track record period, which drove profitability up. 


Leader Energy Holdings Pre-IPO - Still Too Early for an ESG Angle

Barito Renewables Energy / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barito-renewables" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables (2306028D IJ)</a> is looking to raise around US$228m in its Indonesian IPO. </li>
<li>Barito Renewables (BR) is Indonesia’s largest geothermal power producer, and the third-largest globally by installed capacity, as per the firm. </li>
<li>Its revenue has been primarily driven by electricity and steam sales to PLN as PGE’s exclusive contractor and its profitability has been on the rise over the track record period.</li>
</ul>



Barito Renewables (2306028D IJ) is looking to raise around US$228m in its Indonesian IPO. 
Barito Renewables (BR) is Indonesia’s largest geothermal power producer, and the third-largest globally by installed capacity, as per the firm. 
Its revenue has been primarily driven by electricity and steam sales to PLN as PGE’s exclusive contractor and its profitability has been on the rise over the track record period.


Barito Renewables IPO - Power Producer with Stable Cash Flows

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Infineon Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li><p>Infineon’s big news is that they, too, will be building one of the largest Silicon Carbide fabs in the world. This makes Wolfspeed’s Siler City look puny in comparison.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"></figure></section></li><li>Infineon is now looking to be number three in the Silicon Carbide device game, targeting ~500 million in 2023.</li><li>So given the impressive growth, Infineon is a bit late but plans to spend 5 billion dollars over five years for the factory in Kulim.</li></ul>

Infineon’s big news is that they, too, will be building one of the largest Silicon Carbide fabs in the world. This makes Wolfspeed’s Siler City look puny in comparison.Infineon is now looking to be number three in the Silicon Carbide device game, targeting ~500 million in 2023.So given the impressive growth, Infineon is a bit late but plans to spend 5 billion dollars over five years for the factory in Kulim.

Earnings: MCHP and IFX, SIMO Rumors, SMCI, POWI, GFS, COHR, WOLF, AMAT, CSCO

United States

Power Integrations, Inc. designs, develops, and markets analog integrated circuits for use in alternating current (AC) to direct current (DC) power conversion.  The Company sells its products to original equipment manufacturers in the cellular telephone, consumer electronics, personal computer, and industrial electronics industries.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Power Integrations (POWI US)

From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All?

From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All? For next six months, we like both Intel and Qualcomm more...

Andrew Lu

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

Leader Energy Holdings Pre-IPO - Still Too Early for an ESG Angle

Leader Energy Holdings (1814173D MK) is looking to raise up to US$215m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. LE’s revenue has grown on the back of higher...

Ethan Aw

Barito Renewables IPO - Power Producer with Stable Cash Flows

Barito Renewables (2306028D IJ) is looking to raise around US$228m in its Indonesian IPO. It is Indonesia’s largest geothermal power producer, and...

Ethan Aw

Earnings: MCHP and IFX, SIMO Rumors, SMCI, POWI, GFS, COHR, WOLF, AMAT, CSCO

Analog inventory, Coherent's ghost guide, and whipsaw China read through. Infineon’s big news is that they, too, will be building one of the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)