Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Banks can earn losses. Multiple banks can report losses. India is a glowing example of this, where more than half of the banks with new data, have reported a loss. There are 43 banks in our sample, including unlisted banks, where more than half have released their year-end data for March 2016.<div class="content-highlight">The average decline in profit for the worst offenders is over 300%.</div>It is illustrative to consider what is transpiring in India for those looking at other markets too, notably China. It shows all too well…

Banks can earn losses. Multiple banks can report losses. India is a glowing example of this, where more than half of the banks with new data, have reported a loss. There are 43 banks in our sample, including unlisted banks, where more than half have released their year-end data for March 2016.The average decline in profit for the worst offenders is over 300%.It is illustrative to consider what is transpiring in India for those looking at other markets too, notably China. It shows all too well…

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

Exports and imports declined by 6.7% y-o-y and 23.1% y-o-y in April 2016 compared to a fall of 5.5% y-o-y and 21.6% y-o-y in March 2016 respectively. This marks the 17th straight month of decline for both the sectors.The sharp drop in imports in April resulted in a further narrowing of trade deficit to USD 4.8 billion from USD 5 billion in March 2016. On a 3 month moving average (3mma) basis ending April 2016, exports declined 6% while imports fell by a sharper 17.3% compared to a decline of…

Exports and imports declined by 6.7% y-o-y and 23.1% y-o-y in April 2016 compared to a fall of 5.5% y-o-y and 21.6% y-o-y in March 2016 respectively. This marks the 17th straight month of decline for both the sectors.The sharp drop in imports in April resulted in a further narrowing of trade deficit to USD 4.8 billion from USD 5 billion in March 2016. On a 3 month moving average (3mma) basis ending April 2016, exports declined 6% while imports fell by a sharper 17.3% compared to a decline of…

India: Trade Data Indicate Further Weakenss in Economy

<ul><li>Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside.</li><li>Vulnerability to fiscal shortfalls and external financing is rising.</li><li>Policy rates are likely to remain under downward pressure as also the overvalued rupee</li></ul>

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside.Vulnerability to fiscal shortfalls and external financing is rising.Policy rates are likely to remain under downward pressure as also the overvalued rupee

<ul><li>In China bad loan coverage ratios are falling fast, and there is talk that regulators will even lower minimum requirements. No good can come of this.</li><li>OCBC’s recent disclosure is interesting in two respects, where we believe there has been little focus.</li><li>While headline profit growth at HDFC Bank may be wonderful, we are doubtful that the market is aware underlying bad loan growth.</li></ul>

In China bad loan coverage ratios are falling fast, and there is talk that regulators will even lower minimum requirements. No good can come of this.OCBC’s recent disclosure is interesting in two respects, where we believe there has been little focus.While headline profit growth at HDFC Bank may be wonderful, we are doubtful that the market is aware underlying bad loan growth. 

Award-winning Financial Journalist

Ashish Saxena

India's economics will never be like before if a recent stunning disclosure by the country's tax department is to be believed.<div style="text-align: justify;" class="content-highlight">In response to a Right to Information (RTI) appeal filed by an Indian Revenue Service veteran <a href="http://www.thequint.com/india/2016/03/19/even-as-farmers-die-trillions-laundered-as-agricultural-income" target="_blank">Vijay Sharma</a> in May last year, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has revealed that a relatively small group of Indians declared 'Agriculture Income' of almost USD 44.5 trillion between 2010 and 2012.</div>That's right, USD 44.5 trillion! That's more than the combined nominal GDP…

India's economics will never be like before if a recent stunning disclosure by the country's tax department is to be believed.In response to a Right to Information (RTI) appeal filed by an Indian Revenue Service veteran Vijay Sharma in May last year, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has revealed that a relatively small group of Indians declared 'Agriculture Income' of almost USD 44.5 trillion between 2010 and 2012.That's right, USD 44.5 trillion! That's more than the combined nominal GDP…

India's USD 44.5 Trillion 'Agriculture Income' Puzzle: What It Means For The Economy

India

Power Finance Corporation funds power projects in India.  The Company serves state power utilities, central power sector utilities, power departments, private power sector utilities, joint sector power utilities, power equipment manufacturers, and municipal power utilities.

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India - A Lesson on Banking in Distress

Banks can earn losses. Multiple banks can report losses. India is a glowing example of this, where more than half of the banks with new data, have...

Daniel Tabbush

India: Trade Data Indicate Further Weakenss in Economy

Exports and imports declined by 6.7% y-o-y and 23.1% y-o-y in April 2016 compared to a fall of 5.5% y-o-y and 21.6% y-o-y in March 2016...

Rajan Govil

Marketnomix Country Insights - INDIA

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside. Vulnerability to fiscal shortfalls and external financing is rising. Policy rates are likely to...

Rajan Govil

Asian Banks – Ruminations

In China bad loan coverage ratios are falling fast, and there is talk that regulators will even lower minimum requirements. No good can come of...

Daniel Tabbush

India's USD 44.5 Trillion 'Agriculture Income' Puzzle: What It Means For The Economy

India's economics will never be like before if a recent stunning disclosure by the country's tax department is to be believed.In response to a...

Ashish Saxena

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