Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Huatai Securities Co Ltd (A) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>The 12-month reference period used for the June 2024 review is now complete. The SSE 180 expected ADDs/DELs list has changed slightly since I published my last insight (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-sse50-180-jun-24-past-trades-successful-but-time-to-unwind-some" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes during the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
</ul>


SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
The 12-month reference period used for the June 2024 review is now complete. The SSE 180 expected ADDs/DELs list has changed slightly since I published my last insight (link).
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes during the June 2024 index rebal event.


Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: US$2bn One-Way; LONGs up +9.8% Vs SHORTs in ~2 Months

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearing completion, 6 stocks are in inclusion zone and 9 are in deletion zone. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a review.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 7.1% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9.9bn (US$1.37bn). Index arb balances should increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The potential inclusions (of which four are Financials) have continued to outperform the mixed bag of potential deletions. With pretty big impact on the deletes, expect further divergence.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearing completion, 6 stocks are in inclusion zone and 9 are in deletion zone. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a review.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 7.1% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9.9bn (US$1.37bn). Index arb balances should increase the impact on the stocks.
The potential inclusions (of which four are Financials) have continued to outperform the mixed bag of potential deletions. With pretty big impact on the deletes, expect further divergence.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Financials Continue to Outperform

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 19th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$876.3 million, led by information technology, industrials, materials, and offset by financials, health care, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet, China Citic Bank, Zhongji Innolight.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 19th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$876.3 million, led by information technology, industrials, materials, and offset by financials, health care, real estate.
We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet, China Citic Bank, Zhongji Innolight.


Northbound Flows (Apr 19th): Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearing completion, 6 stocks are in inclusion zone and 8 are in deletion zone. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a review.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 7% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9.7bn (US$1.34bn). Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The inflows into mainland China ETFs have further increased the flow and impact on the potential changes. The potential adds have continued to outperform the potential deletes.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearing completion, 6 stocks are in inclusion zone and 8 are in deletion zone. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a review.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 7% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9.7bn (US$1.34bn). Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
The inflows into mainland China ETFs have further increased the flow and impact on the potential changes. The potential adds have continued to outperform the potential deletes.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes and US$2.7bn Round-Trip Trade

<ul>
<li>SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>According to my estimates, the SSE 50 expected ADDs and DELs could see US$1.7bn index buying and US$828mn index selling respectively (leaving nearly $900mm of funding sales to do).</li>
</ul>


SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the June 2024 index rebal event.
According to my estimates, the SSE 50 expected ADDs and DELs could see US$1.7bn index buying and US$828mn index selling respectively (leaving nearly $900mm of funding sales to do).


Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: Past Trades Successful but Time to Unwind Some

China

Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund settlement, and other services. Postal Savings Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Postal Savings Bank of China C (601658 CH)

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Postal Savings Bank of China C (601658 CH)

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: US$2bn One-Way; LONGs up +9.8% Vs SHORTs in ~2 Months

I estimate one-way turnover to be roughly US$2bn. Since 12th March 2024, the LONGs have outperformed the SHORTs by 9.77%.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Financials Continue to Outperform

There could be 5 changes for the SSE50 in June. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.1% leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9.9bn (US$1.37bn). The...

Brian Freitas

Northbound Flows (Apr 19th): Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes and US$2.7bn Round-Trip Trade

There could be 5 index changes in June. We estimate a one-way turnover of 7% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9.7bn...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: Past Trades Successful but Time to Unwind Some

Since 12th March 2024, the LONGs are up 5.42% and the SHORTs are down 0.15% on average. It is time to unwind a couple of these pair trades while...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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