Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Both POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) and Posco International Corporation (047050 KS) provided solid, new Corporate Value Up reports. </li>
<li>However, POSCO International's plan is much better. POSCO International plans to provide total shareholder returns of 50% which is more than double of its previous total shareholder return plan.</li>
<li>This sharp increase in shareholder returns is likely to lead to share outperformance of POSCO International relative to the market in the next several months. </li>
</ul>


Both POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) and Posco International Corporation (047050 KS) provided solid, new Corporate Value Up reports. 
However, POSCO International's plan is much better. POSCO International plans to provide total shareholder returns of 50% which is more than double of its previous total shareholder return plan.
This sharp increase in shareholder returns is likely to lead to share outperformance of POSCO International relative to the market in the next several months. 


New Corporate Value Up Plans of POSCO Holdings and POSCO International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Daishin Securities

Daishin Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

Posco International Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>2Q consolidated OP forecast at W278.5bn (- 22.0% yoy). Consensus beat likely.</li><li>Increased sales volume from the Myanmar gas field project and seasonallyhigh cost recovery rate drive solid performance in the energy segment.</li><li>A reliable upstream developer proven by its successful gas field project in Myanmar and another potential gas explorations in Malaysia and Indonesia.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

2Q consolidated OP forecast at W278.5bn (- 22.0% yoy). Consensus beat likely.Increased sales volume from the Myanmar gas field project and seasonallyhigh cost recovery rate drive solid performance in the energy segment.A reliable upstream developer proven by its successful gas field project in Myanmar and another potential gas explorations in Malaysia and Indonesia.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

POSCO International (047050 KS) - The Last of the Real Ones

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.</li>
<li>A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.</li>
<li>Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.</li>
</ul>


Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.
A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.
Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> index constituents in May 2021.</li>
<li>News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.</li>
<li>There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.</li>
</ul>


Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

<ul>
<li>On 29 August, the three major POSCO Group companies including POSCO Holdings announced that they plan to provide detailed explanations of their Corporate Value Up plans in 4Q 2024. </li>
<li>In general, the companies that have provided more detailed plans for their Corporate Value Up plans have done better recently. </li>
<li>However, now there are cases such as the three main POSCO Group companies whose share prices are rising just by announcing that they will provide Corporate Value Up plans later.</li>
</ul>


On 29 August, the three major POSCO Group companies including POSCO Holdings announced that they plan to provide detailed explanations of their Corporate Value Up plans in 4Q 2024. 
In general, the companies that have provided more detailed plans for their Corporate Value Up plans have done better recently. 
However, now there are cases such as the three main POSCO Group companies whose share prices are rising just by announcing that they will provide Corporate Value Up plans later.


POSCO Group Corporate Value Pre-Announcements: Trading Angle

South Korea

Posco International Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company exports and imports steel, cement, crude oil, heavy machinery, automobile parts, and textiles.  Daewoo also manufactures synthetic fabrics for footwear, garments, and car seats, and operates a department store in Masan.

Posco International Corporation (047050 KS)

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Posco International Corporation (047050 KS)

New Corporate Value Up Plans of POSCO Holdings and POSCO International

Both POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) and Posco International Corporation (047050 KS) provided solid, new Corporate Value Up reports. However, POSCO...

Douglas Kim

POSCO International (047050 KS) - The Last of the Real Ones

Increased sales volume from the Myanmar gas field project and seasonallyhigh cost recovery rate drive solid performance in the energy segment.

Daishin Securities

Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Not a lot of shorts were covered on Monday. There could be more covering in the near term as the market drifts lower. KOSPI200 underperformed...

Brian Freitas

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Media reports indicate that there could be a temporary short sell ban in Korea. This could lead to futures backwardation, market manipulation and a...

Brian Freitas

POSCO Group Corporate Value Pre-Announcements: Trading Angle

There could be some interesting trading angles for POSCO Holdings, POSCO Future M, and POSCO International in the next several months, ahead of the...

Douglas Kim

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