APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Lotus Pharmaceutical / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lotus-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20568:1" rel="noopener">Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT)'s</a> majority shareholder, Alvogen Emerging Markets Holdings (AEMH), aims to raise up to US$247m through an affiliated secondary block offering.</li>
<li>The deal is a small one to digest at only 2.4 days of three month ADV, despite being about 8.7% of current mcap. </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT)'s majority shareholder, Alvogen Emerging Markets Holdings (AEMH), aims to raise up to US$247m through an affiliated secondary block offering.
The deal is a small one to digest at only 2.4 days of three month ADV, despite being about 8.7% of current mcap. 
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Lotus Pharmaceutical Placement - Sound Fundamentals but Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged

Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist, Vasuda Capital Management

Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA

Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist

Vasuda Capital Management

Equity Bottom-Up

Portola Pharmaceuticals / Equity Bottom-Up

We expect the complete response letter (CRL) for Andexanet Alfa to be resolved in 2017 and the drug to be launched successfully in the U.S. market. A regulatory application is also pending in the E.U. Using risk-adjusted NPV/DCF approach, we modeled US$377 million of peak revenue in this indication (at 50% peak penetration, 80% probability of reaching the market, 15% cost of capital). Portola has recently filed a New Drug Application (NDA) with the U.S. FDA in October, 2016 for the approval of Betrixaban for extended venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis in acute medically ill patients. More encouraging clinical data was presented at the annual scientific conference of the American Heart Association this week. On a retrospective analysis, treatment with Betrixaban for upto 6 weeks resulted in 48% reduction in the VTE risk (p=0.002). Using the risk-adjusted NPV/DCF approach, we modeled peak risk-adjusted revenue from this clinical indication= US$1.78 billion/year (at 20% peak market penetration in the U.S., probability=65% and cost of capital=15%). Using the risk-adjusted NPV/ DCF approach, our first price target for the common stock is US$31 (potential 63% upside potential). Sell-side consensus is $26.54 from 6 analysts.

We expect the complete response letter (CRL) for Andexanet Alfa to be resolved in 2017 and the drug to be launched successfully in the U.S. market. A regulatory application is also pending in the E.U. Using risk-adjusted NPV/DCF approach, we modeled US$377 million of peak revenue in this indication (at 50% peak penetration, 80% probability of reaching the market, 15% cost of capital). Portola has recently filed a New Drug Application (NDA) with the U.S. FDA in October, 2016 for the approval of Betrixaban for extended venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis in acute medically ill patients. More encouraging clinical data was presented at the annual scientific conference of the American Heart Association this week. On a retrospective analysis, treatment with Betrixaban for upto 6 weeks resulted in 48% reduction in the VTE risk (p=0.002). Using the risk-adjusted NPV/DCF approach, we modeled peak risk-adjusted revenue from this clinical indication= US$1.78 billion/year (at 20% peak market penetration in the U.S., probability=65% and cost of capital=15%). Using the risk-adjusted NPV/ DCF approach, our first price target for the common stock is US$31 (potential 63% upside potential). Sell-side consensus is $26.54 from 6 analysts. 

United States

Portola Pharmaceuticals, Inc. provides specialty pharmaceutical products. The Company offers novel therapeutics for thrombosis, hematologic disorders, and inflammation. Portola Pharmaceuticals serves customers in the United States.

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Portola Pharmaceuticals (PTLA US)

Lotus Pharmaceutical Placement - Sound Fundamentals but Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged

Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT)'s majority shareholder, Alvogen Emerging Markets Holdings (AEMH), aims to raise up to US$247m through an affiliated...

Ethan Aw

Long Position with Upcoming Catalysts

We expect the complete response letter (CRL) for Andexanet Alfa to be resolved in 2017 and the drug to be launched successfully in the U.S. market....

Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA

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