Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

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Equity Bottom-Up

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We have decided to reiterate our positive bias call on Nine Dragons Paper (NDP), following several key industry and company updates. From a company perspective, the annual results released in September and subsequent commentary have confirmed that the company is on track to achieve its profitability. The recent stock price weakness is more around China macro concerns as opposed to the company itself.</li>
<li>
2018 Revenue and bottom line exceeded our expectations by 4% and 10% respectively highlighting the momentum the NDP has at present, with 34.8% top-line and 79% NPAT YoY growth. Whilst the profitability in fiscal 2018 was not quite to the level we had in our forecasts, namely missing our expectations at the gross profit line but meeting our EBIT line, the attributable factor appears to be the volatile nature of the recycled paper market in China. NDP increased its recycled paper sourcing domestically from 57% to  66% in fiscal 2018. With China’s Environmental regulations taking greater hold over fiscal 2019, we would expect raw material pricing volatility to abate allowing for greater visibility on budget for the group.</li>
<li>
Post incorporation of results we have upgraded our outlook by 6% and 33% respectively for fiscal 2019 and 2020. We believe the group is well positioned to benefit from China’s Environmental Clean Initiatives whilst also taking advantage of the consumer parcel packaging surge due to the e-commerce revolution.</li>
<li>
We believe the investment case for NDP remains intact. Whilst the short-term volatility of the global market may have some impact, the longer term trends brought about by E-commerce demands remains intact. In our view, investors looking for China paper and packaging exposure should consider NDP, as it not only presents favourably as a value stock candidate which should provide adequate reward through sustainable dividends and a renewed share price performance.</li>
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We have decided to reiterate our positive bias call on Nine Dragons Paper (NDP), following several key industry and company updates. From a company perspective, the annual results released in September and subsequent commentary have confirmed that the company is on track to achieve its profitability. The recent stock price weakness is more around China macro concerns as opposed to the company itself.

2018 Revenue and bottom line exceeded our expectations by 4% and 10% respectively highlighting the momentum the NDP has at present, with 34.8% top-line and 79% NPAT YoY growth. Whilst the profitability in fiscal 2018 was not quite to the level we had in our forecasts, namely missing our expectations at the gross profit line but meeting our EBIT line, the attributable factor appears to be the volatile nature of the recycled paper market in China. NDP increased its recycled paper sourcing domestically from 57% to  66% in fiscal 2018. With China’s Environmental regulations taking greater hold over fiscal 2019, we would expect raw material pricing volatility to abate allowing for greater visibility on budget for the group.

Post incorporation of results we have upgraded our outlook by 6% and 33% respectively for fiscal 2019 and 2020. We believe the group is well positioned to benefit from China’s Environmental Clean Initiatives whilst also taking advantage of the consumer parcel packaging surge due to the e-commerce revolution.

We believe the investment case for NDP remains intact. Whilst the short-term volatility of the global market may have some impact, the longer term trends brought about by E-commerce demands remains intact. In our view, investors looking for China paper and packaging exposure should consider NDP, as it not only presents favourably as a value stock candidate which should provide adequate reward through sustainable dividends and a renewed share price performance.


Notes from the Silk Road: Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689.HK) - Packaged for Growth and Value

United States

Pitney Bowes Inc. sells and finances, rents, and services integrated mail and document management systems.  The Company offers a full suite of equipment, supplies, software and services for end-to-end mailstream solutions.

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Pitney Bowes (PBI US)

Notes from the Silk Road: Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689.HK) - Packaged for Growth and Value

We have decided to reiterate our positive bias call on Nine Dragons Paper (NDP), following several key industry and company updates. From a...

David Lepper

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