Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Utkarsh Small Finance Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With the "Postcard" series, our objective is to bring to our readers on-ground insights based on interactions across key channels located in tier 2 and tier 3 locations.</li>
<li>For this Postcard, we travel to the east to the city of Ranchi, located in the heart of Jharkhand. </li>
<li>Stocks in focus include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/utkarsh-small-finance-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39909:1" rel="noopener">Utkarsh Small Finance Bank (1639303D IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aditya-vision-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40299:1" rel="noopener">Aditya Vision (AVL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedant-fashions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34260:1" rel="noopener">Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


With the "Postcard" series, our objective is to bring to our readers on-ground insights based on interactions across key channels located in tier 2 and tier 3 locations.
For this Postcard, we travel to the east to the city of Ranchi, located in the heart of Jharkhand. 
Stocks in focus include Utkarsh Small Finance Bank (1639303D IN), Aditya Vision (AVL IN), Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN), Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN). 


Postcard from Ranchi | The Wild Wild East

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/home-first-finance-company-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28865:1" rel="noopener">Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN)</a> is a technology-driven affordable housing finance company (HFC) focused on first-time homebuyers in low and middle-income groups. </li>
<li>We believe access to finance is more relevant rather than quick TAT and hence question the relevance of wanting to be the fastest provider.</li>
<li>Considering the fading competitive advantage, borrower profile and segment dynamics, HOMEFIRS may be the fastest but not necessarily the safest.</li>
</ul>



Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) is a technology-driven affordable housing finance company (HFC) focused on first-time homebuyers in low and middle-income groups. 
We believe access to finance is more relevant rather than quick TAT and hence question the relevance of wanting to be the fastest provider.
Considering the fading competitive advantage, borrower profile and segment dynamics, HOMEFIRS may be the fastest but not necessarily the safest.


Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) | Irrelevant Mission, Fading Moat

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Shriram Finance  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/piramal-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14158:1" rel="noopener">Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN)</a> plans to raise around US$600m via selling its entire 8.3% stake in Shriram Finance.</li>
<li>The deal is very well flagged with Piramal having sold half its stake in 2019 and having publicly stated its intention to completely exit as well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) plans to raise around US$600m via selling its entire 8.3% stake in Shriram Finance.
The deal is very well flagged with Piramal having sold half its stake in 2019 and having publicly stated its intention to completely exit as well.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.


Shriram Finance Placement - Well Flagged Cleanup but Watch Out for the Recent Spike

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Near the end of the review period, we see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 from LargeCap to MidCap, 8 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa.</li>
<li>One spin-off should be added to the MidCap segment, while a bunch of recent listings will be added to the SmallCap segment.</li>
<li>Stock migrating upwards have outperformed stocks migrating downwards and we expect there could be some mean reversion from the middle of January.</li>
</ul>


Near the end of the review period, we see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 from LargeCap to MidCap, 8 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa.
One spin-off should be added to the MidCap segment, while a bunch of recent listings will be added to the SmallCap segment.
Stock migrating upwards have outperformed stocks migrating downwards and we expect there could be some mean reversion from the middle of January.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2022): A Bunch of Migrations

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india-lic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (LICI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-power-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15618:1" rel="noopener">Tata Power (TPWR IN)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nmdc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2016:1" rel="noopener">Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/piramal-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14158:1" rel="noopener">Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN)</a> at the close on 5 August.</li>
<li>In September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-wilmar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34763:1" rel="noopener">Adani Wilmar (AWLTD IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-railway-catering-and-tourism-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33951:1" rel="noopener">Indian Railway Catering and Tourism (IRCTC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics (BHE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-aeronautics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26747:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HNAL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphasis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7672:1" rel="noopener">Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN)</a> are potential inclusions.</li>
<li>At over 4 days of deliverable volume to trade, the impact is especially large on  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics (BHE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-lifesciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12914:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lupin-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17910:1" rel="noopener">Lupin Ltd (LPC IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (LICI IN) and Tata Power (TPWR IN) will replace Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN) and Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) at the close on 5 August.
In September, Adani Wilmar (AWLTD IN), Indian Railway Catering and Tourism (IRCTC IN), Bharat Electronics (BHE IN), Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HNAL IN) and Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) are potential inclusions.
At over 4 days of deliverable volume to trade, the impact is especially large on  Bharat Electronics (BHE IN), Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) and Lupin Ltd (LPC IN). 


NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in August, Then 5 More in September

India

Piramal Enterprises Limited provides diversified commercial services. The Company offers pharmaceutical production and distribution, real estate, healthcare insights and analysis, and financial services. Piramal Enterprises serves customers globally.

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Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN)

Postcard from Ranchi | The Wild Wild East

This Insight provides on-ground insights from Ranchi, Jharkhand, focusing on stocks like Utkarsh Small Finance Bank, Aditya Vision, Mahindra &...

Pranav Bhavsar

Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) | Irrelevant Mission, Fading Moat

HOMEFIRS IN is a tech-driven HFC targeting first-time homebuyers in low/middle-income groups. We question the relevance of being the fastest...

Pranav Bhavsar

Shriram Finance Placement - Well Flagged Cleanup but Watch Out for the Recent Spike

Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) plans to raise around US$600m via selling its entire 8.3% stake in Shriram Finance. The deal is very well flagged,...

Sumeet Singh

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2022): A Bunch of Migrations

Near the end of the review period, we see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 from LargeCap to MidCap, 8 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in August, Then 5 More in September

There are two index changes at the close on 5 August, then there should be 5 more at the close on 29 September. Passive funds will have over 4-5...

Brian Freitas

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Postcard from Ranchi | The Wild Wild East

​This Insight provides on-ground insights from Ranchi, Jharkhand, focusing on stocks like Utkarsh Small Finance Bank, Aditya Vision, Mahindra &...

Pranav Bhavsar

Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) | Irrelevant Mission, Fading Moat

HOMEFIRS IN is a tech-driven HFC targeting first-time homebuyers in low/middle-income groups. We question the relevance of being the fastest...

Pranav Bhavsar

Shriram Finance Placement - Well Flagged Cleanup but Watch Out for the Recent Spike

Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) plans to raise around US$600m via selling its entire 8.3% stake in Shriram Finance. The deal is very well flagged,...

Sumeet Singh

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2022): A Bunch of Migrations

Near the end of the review period, we see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 from LargeCap to MidCap, 8 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in August, Then 5 More in September

There are two index changes at the close on 5 August, then there should be 5 more at the close on 29 September. Passive funds will have over 4-5...

Brian Freitas

This Insight provides on-ground insights from Ranchi, Jharkhand, focusing on stocks like Utkarsh Small Finance Bank, Aditya Vision, Mahindra &...