Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies</li>
<li>LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase</li>
<li>Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand</li>
<li>Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022</li>
<li>Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050</li>
<li> Primary Uranium sector LT SELL</li>
</ul>
We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.


Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies
LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase
Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand
Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022
Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050
 Primary Uranium sector LT SELL

We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<ul><li>The drive to green power is the well-understood destructive impact of fossil fuel consumption: Investment in renewable energy is driven by the reality that the current consumption of fossil fuels, and related air pollution, water pollution, and public health costs, are unsustainable. As hundreds of millions of people push for higher living standards&mdash;and thus increased consumption of polluting resources&mdash; governments around the world are acting. With governments meeting in early December for the COP21, stronger commitments are possible. We do not expect legally binding agreements on all parties to emerge from the talks.</li><li>With policy support, high investment is set to continue: Though some governments have throttled back support following inefficient overbuild, the trend points upward in the largest markets, primarily the United States and China, and key new markets in emerging economies like India, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, and others. With more players chasing development, and lower absolute subsidies in many cases, we think renewable energy investment returns may fall.</li><li>Ormat is our favorite way to play renewable energy generation capacity: Even though we think the stock is currently modestly overvalued, Ormat Technologies&mdash;a narrow-moat pure-play geothermal developer&mdash;is the only independent power producer with an economic moat. It has a long and impressive growth runway well beyond our five-year explicit forecast, and its baseload geothermal generation has a major operational advantage over intermittent solar and wind.</li><li>Renewable energy growth was one factor in our recent midcycle power price cuts: We recently cut our midcycle outlook for Texas power markets by 20%, primarily because of the state's huge pipeline of renewable energy projects that we expect to go into service during the next three to five years. There are more than 24.5 GW of active generation requests under review for new-build wind generation through 2020, including 11 GW in the next two years, with the state's primary grid operator, ERCOT, or the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.</li></ul>Analysts: Mark Barnett, Travis Miller, Andy Bischoff CFA &amp; Charles Fishman, CFA

The drive to green power is the well-understood destructive impact of fossil fuel consumption: Investment in renewable energy is driven by the reality that the current consumption of fossil fuels, and related air pollution, water pollution, and public health costs, are unsustainable. As hundreds of millions of people push for higher living standards&mdash;and thus increased consumption of polluting resources&mdash; governments around the world are acting. With governments meeting in early December for the COP21, stronger commitments are possible. We do not expect legally binding agreements on all parties to emerge from the talks.With policy support, high investment is set to continue: Though some governments have throttled back support following inefficient overbuild, the trend points upward in the largest markets, primarily the United States and China, and key new markets in emerging economies like India, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, and others. With more players chasing development, and lower absolute subsidies in many cases, we think renewable energy investment returns may fall.Ormat is our favorite way to play renewable energy generation capacity: Even though we think the stock is currently modestly overvalued, Ormat Technologies&mdash;a narrow-moat pure-play geothermal developer&mdash;is the only independent power producer with an economic moat. It has a long and impressive growth runway well beyond our five-year explicit forecast, and its baseload geothermal generation has a major operational advantage over intermittent solar and wind.Renewable energy growth was one factor in our recent midcycle power price cuts: We recently cut our midcycle outlook for Texas power markets by 20%, primarily because of the state's huge pipeline of renewable energy projects that we expect to go into service during the next three to five years. There are more than 24.5 GW of active generation requests under review for new-build wind generation through 2020, including 11 GW in the next two years, with the state's primary grid operator, ERCOT, or the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.Analysts: Mark Barnett, Travis Miller, Andy Bischoff CFA &amp; Charles Fishman, CFA

United States

Pinnacle West Capital Corporation is a utility holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiary, provides either retail or wholesale electric service to most of the State of Arizona. The Company, through a subsidiary, also is involved in real estate development activities in the western United States.

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Pinnacle West Capital (PNW US)

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

Why the Renewable Energy Boom Has Legs

The drive to green power is the well-understood destructive impact of fossil fuel consumption:Investment in renewable energy is driven by the...

Morningstar, Inc.

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