Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI 2023 dividend futures have moved up over the last few months though there was a sharp move lower in the last couple of weeks.</li>
<li>With results and dividends scheduled to be announced in the next few weeks, we take a look at the fair value estimate for the 2023 dividend futures.</li>
<li>We also list out the things to watch for over the next few weeks and months that could impact the 2023 dividend futures and the 2023/24 dividend steepener.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI 2023 dividend futures have moved up over the last few months though there was a sharp move lower in the last couple of weeks.
With results and dividends scheduled to be announced in the next few weeks, we take a look at the fair value estimate for the 2023 dividend futures.
We also list out the things to watch for over the next few weeks and months that could impact the 2023 dividend futures and the 2023/24 dividend steepener.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Fair Value Estimates as Result Season Looms

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into China Mobile, GWM, Sensetime, and outflows from Tencent, HKEx, CCB, Meituan, BYD.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into China Mobile, GWM, Sensetime, and outflows from Tencent, HKEx, CCB, Meituan, BYD.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: First Monthly Outflows in 12 Months

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We estimate that the total inflows were USD 1.5bn last Month. Industrials, Information Technology, Consumer Staples led the inflows.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, Hundsun, Ping An Insurance, Inovance, Xinghuacun Fen Wine, Shaanxi Coal, Midea, Tongwei, BYD, Eve Energy, Industrial Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
We estimate that the total inflows were USD 1.5bn last Month. Industrials, Information Technology, Consumer Staples led the inflows.
We highlight flows for CATL, Hundsun, Ping An Insurance, Inovance, Xinghuacun Fen Wine, Shaanxi Coal, Midea, Tongwei, BYD, Eve Energy, Industrial Bank.


Northbound Flows Monthly (Feb): CATL, Hundsun, Ping An Insurance, Inovance, Xinghuacun Fen Wine

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC (883 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC (981 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest inflows will be on Li Auto (2015 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), XPeng (9868 HK), JD.com (9618 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), BYD (1211 HK) and Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK). 
The largest outflows will be on Tencent (700 HK), HSBC Holdings (5 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), NetEase (9999 HK), CNOOC (883 HK) and SMIC (981 HK).


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (March 2023)

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.9% as of Mar 3rd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.3ppt week on week, led by communication services, consumer discretionary, financials and offset by real estate, information technology, industrials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Xinjiang Goldwind, ZTE, China Southern, CRRC, GWM, China Telecom, CCCC, China Oilfield.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.9% as of Mar 3rd.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.3ppt week on week, led by communication services, consumer discretionary, financials and offset by real estate, information technology, industrials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Xinjiang Goldwind, ZTE, China Southern, CRRC, GWM, China Telecom, CCCC, China Oilfield.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 3rd): Xinjiang Goldwind, ZTE, China Southern, CRRC, GWM, China Telecom

China

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides a variety of insurance service in China.  The Company writes property, casualty, and life insurance.  Ping An Insurance also offers financial services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Fair Value Estimates as Result Season Looms

HSCEI constituents will declare 2022 results and dividends in the next few weeks. 2023 div futures are trading around fair, but there could be...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: First Monthly Outflows in 12 Months

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for February and highlight flows for China Mobile, GWM, Sensetime, Tencent, HKEx, CCB, Meituan, BYD.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows Monthly (Feb): CATL, Hundsun, Ping An Insurance, Inovance, Xinghuacun Fen Wine

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for February and highlight flows for CATL, Hundsun, Ping An Insurance, Inovance, Xinghuacun Fen Wine.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (March 2023)

The Hang Seng indices rebalance Friday. Capping uses today's closing prices. The one-way trade across all stocks across the indices is estimated at...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 3rd): Xinjiang Goldwind, ZTE, China Southern, CRRC, GWM, China Telecom

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Xinjiang Goldwind, ZTE, China Southern, CRRC, GWM, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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