Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 15th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Rio Tinto, Macquarie, Wisetech Global, Fortescue, Westpac, ANZ, Qantas Airways.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 15th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Rio Tinto, Macquarie, Wisetech Global, Fortescue, Westpac, ANZ, Qantas Airways.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 15th): BHP, Rio Tinto, Macquarie, Wisetech Global, Fortescue, Westpac

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday during the day, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> shareholders approved the Scheme and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27434:1" rel="noopener">Livent (LTHM US)</a> shareholders approved the merger. The deal is done. Allkem last trades 21 Dec.</li>
<li>NEWCO starts trading 4 January in the US but the Arcadium Lithium CDIs start trading 22 Dec in Australia. S&amp;P/ASX announced they will replace Allkem in the ASX200.</li>
<li>But I have been asked for a breakdown of flows and timing again, so I have put it into a handy table which I hope makes it less confusing.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday during the day, Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) shareholders approved the Scheme and Livent (LTHM US) shareholders approved the merger. The deal is done. Allkem last trades 21 Dec.
NEWCO starts trading 4 January in the US but the Arcadium Lithium CDIs start trading 22 Dec in Australia. S&amp;P/ASX announced they will replace Allkem in the ASX200.
But I have been asked for a breakdown of flows and timing again, so I have put it into a handy table which I hope makes it less confusing.


Allkem+Livent=Arcadium : Expected Index Flows

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Lithium Power International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30603:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Power International (LPI AU)</a> IE considers Codelco’s A$0.57 offer fair and reasonable as it is above the midpoint of its A$0.30-0.68 per share valuation range. </li>
<li>The scheme is conditional on FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming as LPI’s assets are outside Australia in Chile.</li>
<li>Irrevocables represent 32.05% of outstanding shares. At the last close and for the 16 February payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.6%/26.3%.</li>
</ul>


The Lithium Power International (LPI AU) IE considers Codelco’s A$0.57 offer fair and reasonable as it is above the midpoint of its A$0.30-0.68 per share valuation range. 
The scheme is conditional on FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming as LPI’s assets are outside Australia in Chile.
Irrevocables represent 32.05% of outstanding shares. At the last close and for the 16 February payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.6%/26.3%.


Lithium Power (LPI AU): Scheme Vote on 23 January

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> has entered a new transaction implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)</a> and Hancock at A$3.70, a 51.6% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The emergence of Hancock and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> as substantial shareholders necessitated the new offer. The off-market takeover offer is A$3.65 per share if the scheme fails. </li>
<li>The scheme's completion hinges on MinRes’ acceptance. MinRes could potentially block the scheme but has a history of selling into Hancock offers.</li>
</ul>



Azure Minerals (AZS AU) has entered a new transaction implementation deed with Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US) and Hancock at A$3.70, a 51.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
The emergence of Hancock and Mineral Resources (MIN AU) as substantial shareholders necessitated the new offer. The off-market takeover offer is A$3.65 per share if the scheme fails. 
The scheme's completion hinges on MinRes’ acceptance. MinRes could potentially block the scheme but has a history of selling into Hancock offers.


Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM/Hancock Team up for a New Offer

<ul>
<li>The vote is tomorrow. It is slightly contested. Shareholder proxies have recommended approving. Some others say Allkem is going too cheap. </li>
<li>It probably should get done because of scale benefits, and if it breaks, it might be good for Allkem, which is "good risk arb risk"</li>
<li>But the trade here is some combination of lithium rebound and index event, with index impact details <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/allkem-livent-ake-au-lthm-us-merger-update-much-more-than-meets-the-eye" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
</ul>


The vote is tomorrow. It is slightly contested. Shareholder proxies have recommended approving. Some others say Allkem is going too cheap. 
It probably should get done because of scale benefits, and if it breaks, it might be good for Allkem, which is "good risk arb risk"
But the trade here is some combination of lithium rebound and index event, with index impact details here.


Allkem/Livent Merger Vote Tomorrow: Will Vote Get Past?

Australia

Pilbara Minerals Ltd. is a mineral exploration company. The Company owns mineral tenements in the west Pilbara region of Western Australia where it explores for iron ore, gold and base metals, particularly copper and nickel.

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Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 15th): BHP, Rio Tinto, Macquarie, Wisetech Global, Fortescue, Westpac

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in BHP, Rio Tinto, Macquarie, Wisetech Global,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Allkem+Livent=Arcadium : Expected Index Flows

The Allkem/Livent deal has now been approved by shareholders of both companies. Index providers have started to make announcements. There are LOTS...

Travis Lundy

Lithium Power (LPI AU): Scheme Vote on 23 January

This is a done deal. Irrevocables represent 32.05% of outstanding shares. At the last close and for the 16 February payment, the gross/annualised...

Arun George

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM/Hancock Team up for a New Offer

The scheme's completion hinges on MinRes’ acceptance. MinRes could potentially block the scheme but has a history of selling into Hancock offers....

Arun George

Allkem/Livent Merger Vote Tomorrow: Will Vote Get Past?

Allkem/Livent shareholder meetings are tomorrow. Sentiment is mixed but this likely gets done. And if not, Allkem is likely the one to own. Once...

Travis Lundy

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