Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education (9901 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime (20 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> at the close on 6 September.</li>
<li>The inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> is a big surprise and the stock could move higher over the next couple of weeks.</li>
<li>The non-inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> is another surprise since we had the stock highly ranked in the universe.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) and New Oriental Education (9901 HK) will replace JD Logistics (2618 HK) and SenseTime (20 HK) in the HSCEI at the close on 6 September.
The inclusion of J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) is a big surprise and the stock could move higher over the next couple of weeks.
The non-inclusion of PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) is another surprise since we had the stock highly ranked in the universe.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Three In-Line Changes, Two Big Surprises

<ul>
<li>The constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> and HSIII Index will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>We forecast 2 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, 1 change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> and 3 changes for the HSIII Index.</li>
<li>With same-way and opposing flow on stocks from different passive trackers, the one-way trade is currently estimated at HK$5.2bn (US$672m). That will change with final capping done on 3 September.</li>
</ul>


The constituent changes for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) and HSIII Index will be announced after market close on Friday.
We forecast 2 changes for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), 1 change for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) and 3 changes for the HSIII Index.
With same-way and opposing flow on stocks from different passive trackers, the one-way trade is currently estimated at HK$5.2bn (US$672m). That will change with final capping done on 3 September.


HSCEI/HSTECH/HSIII Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes, Flow & Positioning

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$15.2bn this week (now 27wks in a row of net buying), on smallish two-way volumes. Better than the previous month but still low.</li>
<li>Bank net buying, which had spiked the previous week, didn't follow through.</li>
<li>There were three ETFs in the top 15 SOUTHBOUND net buys this past week, reversing last week, which reversed the week before's flows.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$15.2bn this week (now 27wks in a row of net buying), on smallish two-way volumes. Better than the previous month but still low.
Bank net buying, which had spiked the previous week, didn't follow through.
There were three ETFs in the top 15 SOUTHBOUND net buys this past week, reversing last week, which reversed the week before's flows.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Aug 2024); Tencent the Big Buy Again

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Giant Japan insurer reports staggering June 2024 quarter YoY growth, not only from securities gains, but also strong delta in core premiums written</li>
<li>Weak life insurance premiums is more than offset with well controlled costs, non-life premium income, investment income</li>
<li>Acceleration of cross-shareholding disposals can keep income high, with AFS totaling JPY13.8 trillion with unrealized gains of JPY2.8 trillion</li>
</ul>


Giant Japan insurer reports staggering June 2024 quarter YoY growth, not only from securities gains, but also strong delta in core premiums written
Weak life insurance premiums is more than offset with well controlled costs, non-life premium income, investment income
Acceleration of cross-shareholding disposals can keep income high, with AFS totaling JPY13.8 trillion with unrealized gains of JPY2.8 trillion


Tokio Marine Holdings - Net Profit +54% YoY, Non Life Premiums & Investment Income Are Drivers

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 2nd.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Hang Seng Bank, Bud Apac, CCB, Baba, Tracker Fund.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 2nd.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Hang Seng Bank, Bud Apac, CCB, Baba, Tracker Fund.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Hang Seng Bank, Budweiser Apac, CCB, Baba

China

PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited provides insurance services. The Company provides property loss insurances, liability insurances, credit insurances, accidental injury insurances, short term health insurances, guarantee insurances, and other insurance products. PICC Property and Casualty also operates investment businesses.

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PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK)

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Three In-Line Changes, Two Big Surprises

There are 2 sets of changes for the index in Sep. 1 add is a big surprise, as is 1 non-inclusion. JT Global Express should pop on Monday but there...

Brian Freitas

HSCEI/HSTECH/HSIII Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes, Flow & Positioning

We expect 2 changes for the HSCEI, 1 for the HSTECH, 2 for the HSIII. Tne-way trade is estimated at HK$5.2bn (US$672m). There is same-way and...

Brian Freitas

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Aug 2024); Tencent the Big Buy Again

27th week in a row that SOUTHBOUND has been a net buyer of HK-listed shares. And for the second time in a row, Tencent was the top net buy. SB net...

Travis Lundy

Tokio Marine Holdings - Net Profit +54% YoY, Non Life Premiums & Investment Income Are Drivers

Strong 1Q25 net profit, despite natural catastrophes & weak life premiums, with strong non-life, investment income and cost controls, supporting...

Daniel Tabbush

HK Short Interest Weekly: Hang Seng Bank, Budweiser Apac, CCB, Baba

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 2nd and highlight short interest changes in Hang Seng Bank, Bud Apac,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)