Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This is an updated insight of the original report called the <em>SPARS Pandemic Scenario vs COVID-19</em> which I first published in April 2021.</li>
<li>Despite the 7.66 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines already administered, the number of COVID-19 cases today globally as compared to a year ago remain relatively similar. </li>
<li>The millions of people that leave their workplace because of the mandatory vaccination requirement could be another big wall of worry that "Mr. Market" will need to contend with.</li>
</ul>


This is an updated insight of the original report called the SPARS Pandemic Scenario vs COVID-19 which I first published in April 2021.
Despite the 7.66 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines already administered, the number of COVID-19 cases today globally as compared to a year ago remain relatively similar. 
The millions of people that leave their workplace because of the mandatory vaccination requirement could be another big wall of worry that "Mr. Market" will need to contend with.


An Updated SPARS Pandemic Scenario Vs. COVID-19

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Ilyang Pharmaceutical Co., / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ilyang-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2789:1" rel="noopener">Ilyang Pharmaceutical Co., (007570 KS)</a> shares touched new high of KRW 84,300 in December 2020 after its self-developed innovative drug Supect received approval for clinical trial for potential label expansion. However, Supect failed to prove efficacy in another clinical trial for COVID-19 in March 2021 and since then shares are declining. Ilyang shares are now trading near 52-week low.</li>
<li>Ilyang’s flagship drug Noltec is the leading anti-ulcer drug in Korea due to its superior efficacy and convenience of administration. Noltec is further expected to gain market share driven by its label expansion. </li>
<li>While Noltec has been enjoying steady revenue growth since its launch in 2009, Ilyang’s aspiration to become a leading global pharmaceutical company is dependent on the long-term commercialization success of its leukemia drug Supect and its label expansion potential.</li>
<li>Last week’s FDA approval of a new class of leukemia drug from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novartis-ag-8261b5d2-53ba-409e-8628-86d59cd6f853" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27907:1" rel="noopener">Novartis AG (NOVN SW)</a> has further increased competition in the already crowded leukemia space. This insight has mainly analyzed concerns over the commercialization of Supect amidst this competitive backdrop to find whether Ilyang can be a good bargain hunting idea for investors.  </li>
</ul>



Ilyang Pharmaceutical Co., (007570 KS) shares touched new high of KRW 84,300 in December 2020 after its self-developed innovative drug Supect received approval for clinical trial for potential label expansion. However, Supect failed to prove efficacy in another clinical trial for COVID-19 in March 2021 and since then shares are declining. Ilyang shares are now trading near 52-week low.
Ilyang’s flagship drug Noltec is the leading anti-ulcer drug in Korea due to its superior efficacy and convenience of administration. Noltec is further expected to gain market share driven by its label expansion. 
While Noltec has been enjoying steady revenue growth since its launch in 2009, Ilyang’s aspiration to become a leading global pharmaceutical company is dependent on the long-term commercialization success of its leukemia drug Supect and its label expansion potential.
Last week’s FDA approval of a new class of leukemia drug from Novartis AG (NOVN SW) has further increased competition in the already crowded leukemia space. This insight has mainly analyzed concerns over the commercialization of Supect amidst this competitive backdrop to find whether Ilyang can be a good bargain hunting idea for investors.  


Ilyang Pharmaceutical (007570 KS): Leukemia Drug Commercialization Concerns Still Persist

<p>During July–September <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bnc-korea-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34785:1" rel="noopener">BNC Korea (256840 KS) </a>shares jumped more than 8x to a touch a peak of approximately KRW 70,000 on a published media report that states its partner in Taiwan received emergency approval for a COVID-19 oral drug. With competitor Merck (MRK) reporting positive clinical trial results and seeking emergency use approval for its oral antiviral medicine for COVID-19, BNC Korea shares have been declining and corrected nearly 60% from its peak.</p>

During July–September BNC Korea (256840 KS) shares jumped more than 8x to a touch a peak of approximately KRW 70,000 on a published media report that states its partner in Taiwan received emergency approval for a COVID-19 oral drug. With competitor Merck (MRK) reporting positive clinical trial results and seeking emergency use approval for its oral antiviral medicine for COVID-19, BNC Korea shares have been declining and corrected nearly 60% from its peak.

BNC Korea (256840 KS): Oral COVID-19 Treatment No More Remains a Catalyst

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Clover Biopharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clover-biopharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33029:1" rel="noopener">Clover Biopharmaceuticals (2197 HK)</a> is a global clinical-stage biotechnology company dedicated to developing novel vaccines and biologic therapeutic candidates for infectious diseases as well as cancer and autoimmune diseases. The two core products are SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) and SCB-808. SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate which may be commercially launched as early as year-end 2021. SCB-808 is a potentially differentiated Enbrel (etanercept) biosimilar. </p></div><div><p>Clover has launched an HKEx IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,837.2 million ($236 million) at the mid-point of the IPO price range of HK$12.80-13.50 per share. </p></div><div><p>Nine cornerstone investors have agreed to invest about $138.5 million in the IPO (54.6% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). Four out of the nine cornerstones are existing investors. They are Hillhouse, Orbimed, Temasek and Oceanpine Capital. The five cornerstones which are not existing shareholders are Rock Springs Capital, Athos Capital, Springhill Fund, Superstring Capital and Toroa.</p></div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/clover-biopharmaceuticals-ipo-needling" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:59421" rel="noopener">Clover Biopharmaceuticals IPO: Needling</a>, we stated that while there are numerous COVID-19 vaccine candidates, SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is one of the select COVID-19 vaccine candidates to have received grant funding of up to $360.5 million from Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). Clover has also secured an advanced purchase agreement to supply up to 414 million SCB-2019 vaccine doses (of which 65 million are committed doses) to the COVAX Facility for global allocation. We concluded that Clover is worth a closer look. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.  </p></div></div>

Clover Biopharmaceuticals (2197 HK) is a global clinical-stage biotechnology company dedicated to developing novel vaccines and biologic therapeutic candidates for infectious diseases as well as cancer and autoimmune diseases. The two core products are SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) and SCB-808. SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate which may be commercially launched as early as year-end 2021. SCB-808 is a potentially differentiated Enbrel (etanercept) biosimilar. Clover has launched an HKEx IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,837.2 million ($236 million) at the mid-point of the IPO price range of HK$12.80-13.50 per share. Nine cornerstone investors have agreed to invest about $138.5 million in the IPO (54.6% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). Four out of the nine cornerstones are existing investors. They are Hillhouse, Orbimed, Temasek and Oceanpine Capital. The five cornerstones which are not existing shareholders are Rock Springs Capital, Athos Capital, Springhill Fund, Superstring Capital and Toroa.In Clover Biopharmaceuticals IPO: Needling, we stated that while there are numerous COVID-19 vaccine candidates, SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is one of the select COVID-19 vaccine candidates to have received grant funding of up to $360.5 million from Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). Clover has also secured an advanced purchase agreement to supply up to 414 million SCB-2019 vaccine doses (of which 65 million are committed doses) to the COVAX Facility for global allocation. We concluded that Clover is worth a closer look. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.  

Clover Biopharmaceuticals IPO: Valuation Insights

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clover-biopharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33029:1" rel="noopener">Clover Biopharmaceuticals (CBL HK)</a> is a global clinical-stage biotechnology company dedicated to developing novel vaccines and biologic therapeutic candidates for infectious diseases as well as cancer and autoimmune diseases. The two core products are SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) and SCB-808. SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate which may be commercially launched as early as year-end 2021. SCB-808 is a potentially differentiated Enbrel (etanercept) biosimilar. </p><p>Clover is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise proceeds of $300 million, according to press reports. Clover has a credible management team with a commendable track record in drug discovery and commercialization. Clover also has several blue-chip backers such as Hillhouse, Temasek, Lapam Capital, Delos Capital, Qianhai FoF, Oceanpine Capital, Betta Capital and OrbiMed. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>While there are numerous COVID-19 vaccine candidates, SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is one of the select COVID-19 vaccine candidates to have received grant funding of up to $360.5 million from Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). Clover has also secured an advanced purchase agreement to supply up to 414 million SCB-2019 vaccine doses (of which 65 million are committed doses) to the COVAX Facility for global allocation. Overall, we believe that Clover is worth a closer look. </p></div>

Clover Biopharmaceuticals (CBL HK) is a global clinical-stage biotechnology company dedicated to developing novel vaccines and biologic therapeutic candidates for infectious diseases as well as cancer and autoimmune diseases. The two core products are SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) and SCB-808. SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate which may be commercially launched as early as year-end 2021. SCB-808 is a potentially differentiated Enbrel (etanercept) biosimilar. Clover is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise proceeds of $300 million, according to press reports. Clover has a credible management team with a commendable track record in drug discovery and commercialization. Clover also has several blue-chip backers such as Hillhouse, Temasek, Lapam Capital, Delos Capital, Qianhai FoF, Oceanpine Capital, Betta Capital and OrbiMed. While there are numerous COVID-19 vaccine candidates, SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is one of the select COVID-19 vaccine candidates to have received grant funding of up to $360.5 million from Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). Clover has also secured an advanced purchase agreement to supply up to 414 million SCB-2019 vaccine doses (of which 65 million are committed doses) to the COVAX Facility for global allocation. Overall, we believe that Clover is worth a closer look. 

United States

Pfizer Inc. is a research-based, global pharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets medicines for humans and animals.  The Company's products include prescription pharmaceuticals, non-prescription self-medications, and animal health products such as anti-infective medicines and vaccines.

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Pfizer Inc (PFE US)

An Updated SPARS Pandemic Scenario Vs. COVID-19

This is an updated insight of the original report called the SPARS Pandemic Scenario vs COVID-19 which I first published in April 2021.

Douglas Kim

Ilyang Pharmaceutical (007570 KS): Leukemia Drug Commercialization Concerns Still Persist

This insight has analyzed commercialization concern over Ilyang's leukemia drug due to strong competition. Investors should avoid Ilyang shares.

Tina Banerjee

BNC Korea (256840 KS): Oral COVID-19 Treatment No More Remains a Catalyst

In-licensed oral COVID-19 treatment no longer remains a catalyst after competitor's encouraging clinical trial results. Other oral treatments are...

Tina Banerjee

Clover Biopharmaceuticals IPO: Valuation Insights

Clover has launched an IPO to raise net proceeds of $236m at the mid-point of the price range of HK$12.80-13.50 per share. Our valuation analysis...

Arun George

Clover Biopharmaceuticals IPO: Needling

Clover is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise proceeds of $300 m. SCB-2019 (CpG 1018/Alum) is a COVID-19 vaccine candidate which was secured CEPI...

Arun George

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