European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>GSK has rejected Unilever's approaches (last at £50 billion) but leaked it would be ready to accept an offer around £60 billion (a whopping c. 65% of Unilever's market capitalisation).</li>
<li>The deal would be transformational and Unilever's management see it as the way forward to revive the company's performance and the share price.</li>
<li>
Ballsy, but doable, with a positive impact on results from FY2024, but negative impact on leverage at 4.9x. I believe that Unilever may make a further approach.</li>
</ul>


GSK has rejected Unilever's approaches (last at £50 billion) but leaked it would be ready to accept an offer around £60 billion (a whopping c. 65% of Unilever's market capitalisation).
The deal would be transformational and Unilever's management see it as the way forward to revive the company's performance and the share price.

Ballsy, but doable, with a positive impact on results from FY2024, but negative impact on leverage at 4.9x. I believe that Unilever may make a further approach.


Unilever/GSK Heathcare: Ballsy, but Doable

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/green-cross-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2969:1" rel="noopener">Green Cross (006280 KS)</a> is currently waiting for marketing approval from the FDA for its immune globulin intravenous injection, which will mark its entry into the U.S. market.</li>
<li>The company will start commercializing its hemophilia A treatment, GreenGene F in China market this year. As a third-generation product, GreenGene is expected to gain substantial market share.</li>
<li>Green Cross shares remained subdued last year, as the company could not finalize a contract manufacturing deal for COVID-19 vaccine.</li>
</ul>



Green Cross (006280 KS) is currently waiting for marketing approval from the FDA for its immune globulin intravenous injection, which will mark its entry into the U.S. market.
The company will start commercializing its hemophilia A treatment, GreenGene F in China market this year. As a third-generation product, GreenGene is expected to gain substantial market share.
Green Cross shares remained subdued last year, as the company could not finalize a contract manufacturing deal for COVID-19 vaccine.


Green Cross (006280 KS): Look Ahead for Key Milestones Amid Covid Vaccine Related Setback

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paradigm-biopharmaceuticals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26140:1" rel="noopener">Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR AU)</a> is re-pioneering patent expired, existing drug molecule pentosan polysulfate sodium as a potential treatment of osteoarthritis, under the brand name Zilosul.</li>
<li>With a current addressable patient population of 72 million people, Zilosul has an annual revenue potential of more than $10 billion, if approved.</li>
<li>Inherent safety concern on the existing FDA-approved indication and Paradigm’s financial capability are the near-term overhangs on the commercialization prospect of the drug.</li>
</ul>



Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR AU) is re-pioneering patent expired, existing drug molecule pentosan polysulfate sodium as a potential treatment of osteoarthritis, under the brand name Zilosul.
With a current addressable patient population of 72 million people, Zilosul has an annual revenue potential of more than $10 billion, if approved.
Inherent safety concern on the existing FDA-approved indication and Paradigm’s financial capability are the near-term overhangs on the commercialization prospect of the drug.


Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR AU): Concerns on First Potentially Commercialized Product

<ul>
<li>Chugai’s in-house drug, Actemra is recommended by the WHO for the treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. In-licensed drug Ronapreve is approved for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 patients.</li>
<li>Actemra and Ronapreve together are expected to contribute 29% of total revenue in 2021. Approval of oral COVID-19 anti-viral pill will pressurize both the drugs in 2022 and beyond.</li>
<li>Chugai’s recently in-licensed gene therapy drug candidate for Duchenne muscular dystrophy will have to compete with existing drug and other pipeline candidates in Japan.  </li>
</ul>


Chugai’s in-house drug, Actemra is recommended by the WHO for the treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. In-licensed drug Ronapreve is approved for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 patients.
Actemra and Ronapreve together are expected to contribute 29% of total revenue in 2021. Approval of oral COVID-19 anti-viral pill will pressurize both the drugs in 2022 and beyond.
Chugai’s recently in-licensed gene therapy drug candidate for Duchenne muscular dystrophy will have to compete with existing drug and other pipeline candidates in Japan.  


Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Actemra Loses Its Sheen on Arrival of Oral COVID-19 Pill

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The most important policy for the domestic healthcare industry in the next three years is the DRGs/DIP. We analyzed some important points and the industry outlook brought by this policy.</li>
<li>The aggregate “constraints” imposed by DRGs/DIP will greatly reduce the growth of industry, but A-share market hasn’t fully priced in the impact. Investors are advised to be aware of it.</li>
<li>Recently, Shaanxi province announced the results of centralized procurement of pacemakers.</li>
</ul>


The most important policy for the domestic healthcare industry in the next three years is the DRGs/DIP. We analyzed some important points and the industry outlook brought by this policy.
The aggregate “constraints” imposed by DRGs/DIP will greatly reduce the growth of industry, but A-share market hasn’t fully priced in the impact. Investors are advised to be aware of it.
Recently, Shaanxi province announced the results of centralized procurement of pacemakers.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.17)-The Most Important Policy in Next Three Years,Pacemaker VBP Results

United States

Pfizer Inc. operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company offers medicines, vaccines, medical devices, and consumer healthcare products for oncology, inflammation, cardiovascular, and other therapeutic areas. Pfizer serves customers worldwide.

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Pfizer (PFE UN)

Unilever/GSK Heathcare: Ballsy, but Doable

I believe that a new £60 billion attempt by Unilever is not to be ruled out completely. It is a high price tag, but Unilever could finance the deal.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR AU): Concerns on First Potentially Commercialized Product

The company's dependence on a single molecule makes it a risky bet. Moreover, the inherent safety concern of the lead candidate may limit its...

Tina Banerjee

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Actemra Loses Its Sheen on Arrival of Oral COVID-19 Pill

Chugai's COVID-19 drugs do not seem to be stack up well against the newly approved oral COVID-19 drugs in 2022 and beyond. The company has already...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.17)-The Most Important Policy in Next Three Years,Pacemaker VBP Results

This article analyzed the most important policy for China healthcare in the next three years - DRGs/DIP, its potential impact, the outlook of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Unilever/GSK Heathcare: Ballsy, but Doable

I believe that a new £60 billion attempt by Unilever is not to be ruled out completely. It is a high price tag, but Unilever could finance the deal.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Green Cross (006280 KS): Look Ahead for Key Milestones Amid Covid Vaccine Related Setback

The company is expected to receive marketing approval in the U.S. for its first immune globulin product next month and start commercialize...

Tina Banerjee

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR AU): Concerns on First Potentially Commercialized Product

The company's dependence on a single molecule makes it a risky bet. Moreover, the inherent safety concern of the lead candidate may limit its...

Tina Banerjee

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Actemra Loses Its Sheen on Arrival of Oral COVID-19 Pill

Chugai's COVID-19 drugs do not seem to be stack up well against the newly approved oral COVID-19 drugs in 2022 and beyond. The company has already...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.17)-The Most Important Policy in Next Three Years,Pacemaker VBP Results

This article analyzed the most important policy for China healthcare in the next three years - DRGs/DIP, its potential impact, the outlook of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang