Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Over the last one month, the U.S. healthcare sector remained mostly resilient to the inflation risk and gained 7.1% outperforming S&amp;P 500 index’s gain of 5%.  </li>
<li>Sound financials, high revenue visibility, low or no debt, and cash rich position are some of the reasons for the outperformance.</li>
<li>In this insight, we have handpicked top-quality healthcare sector bets from the S&amp;P 500 index and discussed about their growth stories.</li>
</ul>


Over the last one month, the U.S. healthcare sector remained mostly resilient to the inflation risk and gained 7.1% outperforming S&amp;P 500 index’s gain of 5%.  
Sound financials, high revenue visibility, low or no debt, and cash rich position are some of the reasons for the outperformance.
In this insight, we have handpicked top-quality healthcare sector bets from the S&amp;P 500 index and discussed about their growth stories.


U.S. Healthcare Sector: Ride Out Market Turmoil with High-Quality Large-Cap Ideas

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have discussed our expectations for rising rates for quite some time, but the 10-year yield is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance which comes in at 2.80-2.82%.</li>
<li>If there was ever a time for interest rates to move lower, this is where it needs to happen -- and it would be fitting, considering extremely bearish bond sentiment.</li>
<li>On the other hand, if the 10-year Treasury is above 2.82% we see a secular reversal where rising rates would be the new normal</li>
</ul>


We have discussed our expectations for rising rates for quite some time, but the 10-year yield is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance which comes in at 2.80-2.82%.
If there was ever a time for interest rates to move lower, this is where it needs to happen -- and it would be fitting, considering extremely bearish bond sentiment.
On the other hand, if the 10-year Treasury is above 2.82% we see a secular reversal where rising rates would be the new normal


10-Year Treasury Yield Testing 40-Year Resistance; Upgrading Health Care to Overweight

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bnc-korea-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34785:1" rel="noopener">BNC Korea (256840 KS),</a> with its partnered COVID-19 pill will be a late entrant in the space, as two more COVID-19 pills are already approved in South Korea.</li>
<li>The company reported operating loss of KRW11 billion in 2021 and 99% of its export comes from Russia and CIS countries.</li>
<li>Since my bearish note published on the company in October 2021, shares have declined 50%. I am still not upbeat on the growth prospect of the company.</li>
</ul>



BNC Korea (256840 KS), with its partnered COVID-19 pill will be a late entrant in the space, as two more COVID-19 pills are already approved in South Korea.
The company reported operating loss of KRW11 billion in 2021 and 99% of its export comes from Russia and CIS countries.
Since my bearish note published on the company in October 2021, shares have declined 50%. I am still not upbeat on the growth prospect of the company.


BNC Korea (256840 KS): Late Mover in COVID Pill; 2021 Operating Loss and Russia Exposure Add to Woe

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27760:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)'s</a> oncology drug candidate toripalimab marketing application is currently under priority review by the FDA, with a target action date of April 30, 2022.</li>
<li>However, FDA may reject toripalimab application, as it is predominantly based on China clinical trial data. Toripalimab may also face delay in FDA decision due to delayed regulatory inspection.</li>
<li>PD-1 drug market in the U.S. is intensely competitive, making the commercialization prospect of a new drug quite difficult. Toripalimab reported muted performance in China due to pricing headwind.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)'s oncology drug candidate toripalimab marketing application is currently under priority review by the FDA, with a target action date of April 30, 2022.
However, FDA may reject toripalimab application, as it is predominantly based on China clinical trial data. Toripalimab may also face delay in FDA decision due to delayed regulatory inspection.
PD-1 drug market in the U.S. is intensely competitive, making the commercialization prospect of a new drug quite difficult. Toripalimab reported muted performance in China due to pricing headwind.


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Uncertainties Prevailing Ahead of First U.S. Drug Approval

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abbvie-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1135:1" rel="noopener">Abbvie Inc (ABBV US)</a> shares remained rangebound in 2021, mainly due to Humira patent expiration overhang. Humira is the flagship drug of the company, accounting for 37% of total revenue.</li>
<li>Increasing label expansion of its two other drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq are now increasingly opening up new growth avenues for AbbVie. Together these drugs contributed 8% to total revenue.</li>
<li>Attractive valuation and healthy dividend yield make AbbVie a top value investment idea amid this turbulent time.</li>
</ul>



Abbvie Inc (ABBV US) shares remained rangebound in 2021, mainly due to Humira patent expiration overhang. Humira is the flagship drug of the company, accounting for 37% of total revenue.
Increasing label expansion of its two other drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq are now increasingly opening up new growth avenues for AbbVie. Together these drugs contributed 8% to total revenue.
Attractive valuation and healthy dividend yield make AbbVie a top value investment idea amid this turbulent time.


AbbVie Inc (ABBV US): Great Value Stock to Buy in Choppy Market

United States

Pfizer Inc. operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company offers medicines, vaccines, medical devices, and consumer healthcare products for oncology, inflammation, cardiovascular, and other therapeutic areas. Pfizer serves customers worldwide.

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Pfizer (PFE UN)

U.S. Healthcare Sector: Ride Out Market Turmoil with High-Quality Large-Cap Ideas

Healthcare sector is expected to remain resilient to the inflation worry and outperform broader market in near-term. This insight highlights top...

Tina Banerjee

10-Year Treasury Yield Testing 40-Year Resistance; Upgrading Health Care to Overweight

10-year Treas yield $TNX is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance at 2.8-2.82%. If interest rates are to move lower, now would be the time,...

Vermilion Research

BNC Korea (256840 KS): Late Mover in COVID Pill; 2021 Operating Loss and Russia Exposure Add to Woe

I am still bearish on the company as its partnered COVID-19 pill will be a late entrant in the market. Moreover, its huge dependence on Russia for...

Tina Banerjee

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Uncertainties Prevailing Ahead of First U.S. Drug Approval

Going by the FDA’s recent action, Junshi Bioscience’s toripalimab has a chance to get rejected by the FDA. It may miss the approval timeline....

Tina Banerjee

AbbVie Inc (ABBV US): Great Value Stock to Buy in Choppy Market

Abbvie’s reducing dependence on Humira, visibility on non-Humira portfolio, coupled with high dividend yield and attractive valuation make it a top...

Tina Banerjee

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