Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With new China data it’s easy to consider a fairly benign growth environment.  The reality is more striking. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) publishes claims on non-financial institutions for China’s banks, which is essentially corporate lending.  Growth has just reached a 10-year low of 6.1% YoY in February. Where these loans are 2.5x the level of consumer loans, they are important and their trend, a reasonable reflection of economic strength. In any case, the first two months of 2017 are far…

With new China data it’s easy to consider a fairly benign growth environment.  The reality is more striking. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) publishes claims on non-financial institutions for China’s banks, which is essentially corporate lending.  Growth has just reached a 10-year low of 6.1% YoY in February. Where these loans are 2.5x the level of consumer loans, they are important and their trend, a reasonable reflection of economic strength. In any case, the first two months of 2017 are far…

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

There was some consternation last night as the CNH surged against the USD bringing the CNY-CNH spread to an unprecedented 800 or so.  What is interesting is that there seemed to be no news or move in underlying currencies that would cause such a move.We can find no clear reason that would drive a late day and post standard trading hour surge in the CNH.  Let us review the major reasons given as explanations.Some have argued this may be due to tightening capital controls out of China.  Possible…

There was some consternation last night as the CNH surged against the USD bringing the CNY-CNH spread to an unprecedented 800 or so.  What is interesting is that there seemed to be no news or move in underlying currencies that would cause such a move.We can find no clear reason that would drive a late day and post standard trading hour surge in the CNH.  Let us review the major reasons given as explanations.Some have argued this may be due to tightening capital controls out of China.  Possible…

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Not so long ago China's renminbi was being touted as an up-and-coming currency. But recent figures from SWIFT suggest that the it is being used less and less for international trade payments and now ranks below the Canadian dollar.

Not so long ago China's renminbi was being touted as an up-and-coming currency. But recent figures from SWIFT suggest that the it is being used less and less for international trade payments and now ranks below the Canadian dollar.

Renminbi Fails to Make the International Grade

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

LR Research

The latest threat assessment from China watchers has, at least partially, focussed upon the Policy Banks.  China Development Bank, China Ex-Im Bank and China Agricultural Development Bank are the three policy banks.  Each has a different task in the Chinese system and each has been recapitalised and each is growing rapidly.  Our analysis finds that these are not the true new levers of domestic policy.  Investors should pay much more attention to specific Joint Stock Banks, County, and Urban commercial banks.  This is the area of real lending growth in China over the past few years.

The latest threat assessment from China watchers has, at least partially, focussed upon the Policy Banks.  China Development Bank, China Ex-Im Bank and China Agricultural Development Bank are the three policy banks.  Each has a different task in the Chinese system and each has been recapitalised and each is growing rapidly.  Our analysis finds that these are not the true new levers of domestic policy.  Investors should pay much more attention to specific Joint Stock Banks, County, and Urban commercial banks.  This is the area of real lending growth in China over the past few years.

Foreign exchange reserves of the People’s Bank of China fell for the fourth consecutive month in October. The drop of 45.7 billion USD from September to October represents the largest month to month change in foreign reserves this year. Reserves now sit at $3.12 trillion USD, the lowest level since March 2011. Capital outflows, a rising USD and non-USD reserves valuation help explain the ongoing decline in Chinese foreign exchange reserves.Capital outflows remained substantial in September…

Foreign exchange reserves of the People’s Bank of China fell for the fourth consecutive month in October. The drop of 45.7 billion USD from September to October represents the largest month to month change in foreign reserves this year. Reserves now sit at $3.12 trillion USD, the lowest level since March 2011. Capital outflows, a rising USD and non-USD reserves valuation help explain the ongoing decline in Chinese foreign exchange reserves.Capital outflows remained substantial in September…

China

The People's Bank of China is the central bank of the People's Republic of China. The Company formulates and implements monetary policy and supervises and regulates the financial industry. The People's Bank of China conducts business in China.

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People’s Bank Of China (PBCZ CH)

Weakening Credit in 1Q17 in China

With new China data it’s easy to consider a fairly benign growth environment. The reality is more striking. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC)...

Daniel Tabbush

What Caused the CNH Surge?

There was some consternation last night as the CNH surged against the USD bringing the CNY-CNH spread to an unprecedented 800 or so. What is...

Christopher Balding

Renminbi Fails to Make the International Grade

Not so long ago China's renminbi was being touted as an up-and-coming currency. But recent figures from SWIFT suggest that the it is being used...

Bixmoor

Chinese Policy Banks Not the Real Threat

The latest threat assessment from China watchers has, at least partially, focussed upon the Policy Banks. China Development Bank, China Ex-Im Bank...

Mark Artherton

Chinese FX Reserve Update for October

Foreign exchange reserves of the People’s Bank of China fell for the fourth consecutive month in October. The drop of 45.7 billion USD from...

Christopher Balding

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