Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We see the S&amp;P 500 as trading within a downtrend channel; as long as it remains within this channel, our intermediate to long-term outlook is bearish at the index level.</li>
<li>With that said, the S&amp;P 500 is currently testing support within the downtrend channel, and we are on watch for a potential bear market rally.</li>
<li>We will need to see a bullish reversal of the 1-month downtrend (currently at 4030-4050) to have confidence that a tradeable bounce is underway, with the potential for more.</li>
</ul>


We see the S&amp;P 500 as trading within a downtrend channel; as long as it remains within this channel, our intermediate to long-term outlook is bearish at the index level.
With that said, the S&amp;P 500 is currently testing support within the downtrend channel, and we are on watch for a potential bear market rally.
We will need to see a bullish reversal of the 1-month downtrend (currently at 4030-4050) to have confidence that a tradeable bounce is underway, with the potential for more.


S&P 500 Downtrend Channel Intact & Testing Support; Buy Ideas Within Energy & Biotech

iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have warned over the past month that a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000.</li>
<li>We recently hit marginal new lows; while the indexes and our outlook remains neutral to bearish, we believe there is potential for an oversold bounce</li>
<li>Still, we will need to see the NYSE have back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day to have confidence that a major bottom is in place.</li>
</ul>


We have warned over the past month that a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000.
We recently hit marginal new lows; while the indexes and our outlook remains neutral to bearish, we believe there is potential for an oversold bounce
Still, we will need to see the NYSE have back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day to have confidence that a major bottom is in place.


Fed Set to Hike 50 Bps As Indexes Test Support; Energy Stocks to Buy on Pullbacks

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

We issue in-process short research ideas periodically.  Our formal recommendations will likely come from this list, although not all will make the final cut.  Here we introduce a series of names that look interesting.Atkore Inc (ATKR), Producer Manufacturing, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) Food Retail, PBF Energy, Inc. Class A (PBF), Oil Refining/Marketing, Ping Identity Holding Corp. (PING) Packaged Software, Renewable Energy Group, (REGI) Chemicals: Specialty, Blink Charging Co (BLNK) Other Consumer Services.

We issue in-process short research ideas periodically.  Our formal recommendations will likely come from this list, although not all will make the final cut.  Here we introduce a series of names that look interesting.Atkore Inc (ATKR), Producer Manufacturing, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) Food Retail, PBF Energy, Inc. Class A (PBF), Oil Refining/Marketing, Ping Identity Holding Corp. (PING) Packaged Software, Renewable Energy Group, (REGI) Chemicals: Specialty, Blink Charging Co (BLNK) Other Consumer Services.  

Short Ideas "On the Workbench" - Promising Shorts Under Our Research Microscope.

Solvency Risk Model:  This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short-term maturities for additional input. Solvency shorts can be great short candidates.  The key characteristic is that the company may not be viable, economically, given their cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, time horizons that depend on their particular situations, and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.  They can also go bankrupt, pushing the stock price close to zero. See below (and attached) for discussion on featured stocks and the top stocks at risk.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/234/511/original/image_19810368031633964798828.png?1633964799" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="234511"></figure>

Solvency Risk Model:  This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short-term maturities for additional input. Solvency shorts can be great short candidates.  The key characteristic is that the company may not be viable, economically, given their cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, time horizons that depend on their particular situations, and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.  They can also go bankrupt, pushing the stock price close to zero. See below (and attached) for discussion on featured stocks and the top stocks at risk.

Two River's Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Sabre Corp, PBF Enrgy, BellRing Brnds, PowerSchool Hldgs

Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a broad-based advance. We highlight these improvements in this report, along with what we would like to see in order to have confidence in labeling this a bull market.  In today’s report we also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Financials, Manufacturing, and Technology: Refining, Banks, Super-Regional, Industrial, Diversified, Large-Cap, and Data Storage Solutions &amp; Devices, Large-Cap.

Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a broad-based advance. We highlight these improvements in this report, along with what we would like to see in order to have confidence in labeling this a bull market.  In today’s report we also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Financials, Manufacturing, and Technology: Refining, Banks, Super-Regional, Industrial, Diversified, Large-Cap, and Data Storage Solutions &amp; Devices, Large-Cap.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Dramatic Improvement

United States

PBF Energy Inc. is an independent petroleum refiner and supplier. The Company offers unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants and other petroleum products in the United States. PBF's finished products are sold through long-term offtake and supply agreements.

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Pbf Energy Inc Class A (PBF US)

S&P 500 Downtrend Channel Intact & Testing Support; Buy Ideas Within Energy & Biotech

The $SPX is trading within a downtrend channel; as long as it remains within this channel, our intermediate to long-term outlook is bearish at the...

Vermilion Research

Fed Set to Hike 50 Bps As Indexes Test Support; Energy Stocks to Buy on Pullbacks

We recently hit marginal new lows, something we have warned about over the past month; while the indexes and our outlook remains neutral to...

Vermilion Research

Short Ideas "On the Workbench" - Promising Shorts Under Our Research Microscope.

Promising Shorts Under Our Research Microscope: Atkore (ATKR), Grocery Outlet Holding (GO), PBF Energy. (PBF), Ping Identity Holding (PING),...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Two River's Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Sabre Corp, PBF Enrgy, BellRing Brnds, PowerSchool Hldgs

Our Solvency Risk model surfaces US short candidates. Four of the most interesting are discussed below the longer list.

Eric Fernandez, CFA

U.S. Equity Strategy: Dramatic Improvement

Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a...

Vermilion Research

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