Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The December 2024 index review results for China's CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices were announced after market close on Friday 29th November 2024.</li>
<li>There will be 16 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500.</li>
<li>The CSI 300 and CSI 500 index rebal events could trigger US$4.5bn and US$3.8bn in one-way flows respectively.</li>
</ul>


The December 2024 index review results for China's CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices were announced after market close on Friday 29th November 2024.
There will be 16 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500.
The CSI 300 and CSI 500 index rebal events could trigger US$4.5bn and US$3.8bn in one-way flows respectively.


Quiddity CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24 Results: ~90% Hit Rate; Positive Start for the Trade

Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.</li>
<li>The reference period for the June 2024 review is now complete. There are some changes to the expected ADDs/DELs list since I published my last insight (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-csi-300-500-jun-24-shorts-down-11-vs-index-since-mid-feb-change-the-hedge" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>) ~3 weeks ago.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes in June 2024.</li>
</ul>


CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
The reference period for the June 2024 review is now complete. There are some changes to the expected ADDs/DELs list since I published my last insight (link) ~3 weeks ago.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes in June 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: Final Expectations; US$3.4bn One-Way; New Trade Idea

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There will be interest now more than before in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capital-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40953:1" rel="noopener">Capital Securities (601136 CH)</a> due to its recently announced inclusion in the FTSE All World Index</li>
<li>Fundamentally, there are some major concerns, even where AUM is up 1.5x over the past three years, returns are cratering, with ROA moving from 2.45% to 1.35%</li>
<li>With significant new shares outstanding and single digit ROE now, its book value per share has moved from RMB7.25 to RMB4.36, from recent peak to most recent interim</li>
</ul>


There will be interest now more than before in Capital Securities (601136 CH) due to its recently announced inclusion in the FTSE All World Index
Fundamentally, there are some major concerns, even where AUM is up 1.5x over the past three years, returns are cratering, with ROA moving from 2.45% to 1.35%
With significant new shares outstanding and single digit ROE now, its book value per share has moved from RMB7.25 to RMB4.36, from recent peak to most recent interim


Capital Securities - Just Added to FTSE All Word Index, but Fundamentals of Concern

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 15th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,170.6 million, led by industrials, information technology, and offset by health care, consumer discretionary, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Zhongji Innolight, CATL, Moutai, Wuliangye, Longi Green, Boe Technology, China Tourism, China Petroleum And Chemical.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 15th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,170.6 million, led by industrials, information technology, and offset by health care, consumer discretionary, utilities.
We highlight flows for Zhongji Innolight, CATL, Moutai, Wuliangye, Longi Green, Boe Technology, China Tourism, China Petroleum And Chemical.


Northbound Flows (Sep 15th): Six Weeks of Outflows

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its 'Sons and Daughters Program'. The silence since then from Chinese anti-corruption officials has been deafening.</p>

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its 'Sons and Daughters Program'. The silence since then from Chinese anti-corruption officials has been deafening.

Chinese Officials Turn a Blind Eye to Corruption

China

Pacific Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, custodian, underwriting, trading and investment consulting services.

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Pacific Securities Co/The A (601099 CH)

Quiddity CSI 300/500 Dec 24 Results: ~90% Hit Rate; Positive Start for the Trade

The LONGs have outperformed the Index by 2.2% since 5th November. The trade has to be now adjusted for the surprises in the latest index change...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Jun 24: Final Expectations; US$3.4bn One-Way; New Trade Idea

The official changes is expected at the end of this month. I expect the names with clear positive flow expectations to outperform those with clear...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Capital Securities - Just Added to FTSE All Word Index, but Fundamentals of Concern

Capital Securities Corp will now be included in the FTSE All World Index which can drive interest, but fundamentals remain a concern, with high...

Daniel Tabbush

Northbound Flows (Sep 15th): Six Weeks of Outflows

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Zhongji Innolight, CATL, Moutai, Wuliangye, Longi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Chinese Officials Turn a Blind Eye to Corruption

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its...

Bixmoor

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24 Results: ~90% Hit Rate; Positive Start for the Trade

The LONGs have outperformed the Index by 2.2% since 5th November. The trade has to be now adjusted for the surprises in the latest index change...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: Final Expectations; US$3.4bn One-Way; New Trade Idea

The official changes is expected at the end of this month. I expect the names with clear positive flow expectations to outperform those with clear...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Capital Securities - Just Added to FTSE All Word Index, but Fundamentals of Concern

Capital Securities Corp will now be included in the FTSE All World Index which can drive interest, but fundamentals remain a concern, with high...

Daniel Tabbush

Northbound Flows (Sep 15th): Six Weeks of Outflows

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Zhongji Innolight, CATL, Moutai, Wuliangye, Longi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Chinese Officials Turn a Blind Eye to Corruption

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its...

Bixmoor

Quiddity CSI 300/500 Dec 24 Results: ~90% Hit Rate; Positive Start for the Trade

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Jun 24: Final Expectations; US$3.4bn One-Way; New Trade Idea