Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Indexes continue to violate our key supports as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&amp;P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109.</li>
<li>This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair.</li>
<li>Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom, and it is possible that was yesterday (Jan. 24).</li>
</ul>


Indexes continue to violate our key supports as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&amp;P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109.
This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair.
Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom, and it is possible that was yesterday (Jan. 24).


U.S. Equity Strategy: Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading and Buying Utilities

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

EDP - Energias de Portugal SA / Event-Driven

The changes to the S&amp;P Global Clean Energy Index have been announced. There are 52 additions to the index to take the number of index constituents up to 82. The changes are effective after the close of trading on 16 April.The 52 additions and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of close to 55% and will require the ETFs tracking the index to trade US$12bn to rebalance their portfolios.The largest buying impact in terms of ADV to trade will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/edp-energias-de-portugal-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21362:1" rel="noopener">Edp - Energias De Portugal Sa (EDP PL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22163:1" rel="noopener">SSE PLC (SSE LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northland-power-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25480:1" rel="noopener">Northland Power (NPI CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enel-americas-sa-c3a67f8a-ad13-45ff-a676-cbc513b8c458" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25965:1" rel="noopener">Enel Americas SA (ENIA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/drax-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21911:1" rel="noopener">Drax Group PLC (DRX LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meyer-burger-technology-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25013:1" rel="noopener">Meyer Burger Technology Ag (MBTN SW)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centrais-eletricas-br-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28638:1" rel="noopener">Centrais Eletricas Br-Sp Adr (EBR US)</a>.The largest selling impact will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meridian-ener-partly-paid-sh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4327:1" rel="noopener">Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verbund-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22563:1" rel="noopener">Verbund AG (VER AV)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innergex-renewable-energy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25479:1" rel="noopener">Innergex Renewable Energy (INE CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cia-energetica-de-spon-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28644:1" rel="noopener">Cia Energetica De-Spon Adr (CIG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boralex-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25478:1" rel="noopener">Boralex Inc (BLX CN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scatec-solar-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25120:1" rel="noopener">Scatec Solar ASA (SSO NO)</a>.Among the current index constituents, there will be buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orsted-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24765:1" rel="noopener">Orsted A/S (ORSTED DC)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vestas-wind-systems-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22524:1" rel="noopener">Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS DC)</a>.We recommend buying the surprise inclusions and unwinding the positions by implementation date. A lot of the stocks that will have a reduction in index weight have been sold off over the last few months and the active positions will be covered leading up to implementation date - we recommend buying these stocks in the days leading up to implementation date since the stocks could rally once the overhang of passive selling has been removed.

The changes to the S&amp;P Global Clean Energy Index have been announced. There are 52 additions to the index to take the number of index constituents up to 82. The changes are effective after the close of trading on 16 April.The 52 additions and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of close to 55% and will require the ETFs tracking the index to trade US$12bn to rebalance their portfolios.The largest buying impact in terms of ADV to trade will be on Edp - Energias De Portugal Sa (EDP PL), SSE PLC (SSE LN), Northland Power (NPI CN), Enel Americas SA (ENIA US), Drax Group PLC (DRX LN), Meyer Burger Technology Ag (MBTN SW) and Centrais Eletricas Br-Sp Adr (EBR US).The largest selling impact will be on Meridian Energy (MEL NZ), Contact Energy (CEN NZ), Verbund AG (VER AV), Innergex Renewable Energy (INE CN), Cia Energetica De-Spon Adr (CIG US), Boralex Inc (BLX CN) and Scatec Solar ASA (SSO NO).Among the current index constituents, there will be buying on Orsted A/S (ORSTED DC) and Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS DC).We recommend buying the surprise inclusions and unwinding the positions by implementation date. A lot of the stocks that will have a reduction in index weight have been sold off over the last few months and the active positions will be covered leading up to implementation date - we recommend buying these stocks in the days leading up to implementation date since the stocks could rally once the overhang of passive selling has been removed.

Global Clean Energy Index: 52 Adds, 55% Index Turnover, US$12bn to Trade

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

Imagine a sell-side analyst calls. You ignore it, of course, and the voicemail goes like this:
<blockquote>
This is Hunter from Barr, King, Seals. We're downgrading Atomic &amp; Fossil Power to a Potential Future Buy, our lowest rating. Key points are that fish-kill rates from plant effluents are way up, charitable giving is down year-over-year, and the Board is still just a bunch of old white men.
</blockquote>
Sounds absurd, doesn't it?
There's a very good reason for that.
The truth is, ESG information doesn't drive stock prices.
I'm not saying ESG performance isn’t accretive to long-term value; often it is. Rather, I am saying that ESG informational events don't have nearly the same sway as their financial equivalents.
Financial information – about profits, losses, mergers, write-downs, upgrades, downgrades, and CFOs pursuing other interests – has a direct and immediate impact on securities prices.
ESG information, on the other hand, creeps into valuations circuitously.
By definition as non-financial data, ESG is always one or more degrees of separation from what really matters. ESG must impact financial metrics before manifesting, indirectly in prices.
Put another way, ESG isn't value in and of itself; it's a catalyst for value.
It's not all rain on the parade though. Some ESG events do move prices. Additionally, as the quality and timeliness of ESG data continues to improve, markets will absorb it with increasing efficiency.
This topic, how ESG information is assimilated into stock prices, is so pertinent to ESG Alpha – the core leitmotif of my research – that I will address it as a quasi-series, starting with this report.
Rather than kick this off with a buzz kill (hint: ESG scores/ratings are lousy predictors of price), I'm starting with a kind of ESG information event that affects stocks materially in the here-and-now.
Fat-tail hitting-the-fan Enron-esque ESG-related news.
Herein, I analyze a few recent ESG events that make the cut as statistically-significant in terms of inferred causality – and a few that surprisingly don't. Though not a complete list, here are a few:
<ul>
<li>Single-stock events (PG&amp;E, Toshiba, Chipotle, Steinhoff, Equifax, Bausch Health, Kobe Steel)</li>
<li>The Volkswagen "Dieselgate" or "Emissionsgate" scandal (VW, Porsche, MAN SE, and others)</li>
<li>Danske Bank A/S and Swedbank AB getting caught up in the "Baltic Money Laundering Scandal"</li>
<li>U.S. pharmaceutical companies being sued for damages associated with the U.S. opioid crisis</li>
</ul>

Imagine a sell-side analyst calls. You ignore it, of course, and the voicemail goes like this:

This is Hunter from Barr, King, Seals. We're downgrading Atomic &amp; Fossil Power to a Potential Future Buy, our lowest rating. Key points are that fish-kill rates from plant effluents are way up, charitable giving is down year-over-year, and the Board is still just a bunch of old white men.

Sounds absurd, doesn't it?
There's a very good reason for that.
The truth is, ESG information doesn't drive stock prices.
I'm not saying ESG performance isn’t accretive to long-term value; often it is. Rather, I am saying that ESG informational events don't have nearly the same sway as their financial equivalents.
Financial information – about profits, losses, mergers, write-downs, upgrades, downgrades, and CFOs pursuing other interests – has a direct and immediate impact on securities prices.
ESG information, on the other hand, creeps into valuations circuitously.
By definition as non-financial data, ESG is always one or more degrees of separation from what really matters. ESG must impact financial metrics before manifesting, indirectly in prices.
Put another way, ESG isn't value in and of itself; it's a catalyst for value.
It's not all rain on the parade though. Some ESG events do move prices. Additionally, as the quality and timeliness of ESG data continues to improve, markets will absorb it with increasing efficiency.
This topic, how ESG information is assimilated into stock prices, is so pertinent to ESG Alpha – the core leitmotif of my research – that I will address it as a quasi-series, starting with this report.
Rather than kick this off with a buzz kill (hint: ESG scores/ratings are lousy predictors of price), I'm starting with a kind of ESG information event that affects stocks materially in the here-and-now.
Fat-tail hitting-the-fan Enron-esque ESG-related news.
Herein, I analyze a few recent ESG events that make the cut as statistically-significant in terms of inferred causality – and a few that surprisingly don't. Though not a complete list, here are a few:

Single-stock events (PG&amp;E, Toshiba, Chipotle, Steinhoff, Equifax, Bausch Health, Kobe Steel)
The Volkswagen "Dieselgate" or "Emissionsgate" scandal (VW, Porsche, MAN SE, and others)
Danske Bank A/S and Swedbank AB getting caught up in the "Baltic Money Laundering Scandal"
U.S. pharmaceutical companies being sued for damages associated with the U.S. opioid crisis



IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Below is a recap of the key IPO/placement research produced by the Global Equity Research team. This week, we update on the bevvy of placements offered by various companies. After placements by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27250" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8509" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> , we saw more offerings from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26983" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26983:1">HUYA Inc (HUYA US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26793" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27418" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27418:1">Qutoutiao Inc (QTT US)</a>. We update on these three offerings and perhaps big picture, this could reflect a signalling inflection point in these shares. More details below In addition, we have provided an updated calendar of upcoming catalysts for EVENT driven names below. Best of luck for the new week - Arun, Venkat and Rickin

Below is a recap of the key IPO/placement research produced by the Global Equity Research team. This week, we update on the bevvy of placements offered by various companies. After placements by Pinduoduo (PDD US) and Sea Ltd (SE US) , we saw more offerings from HUYA Inc (HUYA US) , Bilibili Inc (BILI US) and Qutoutiao Inc (QTT US). We update on these three offerings and perhaps big picture, this could reflect a signalling inflection point in these shares. More details below In addition, we have provided an updated calendar of upcoming catalysts for EVENT driven names below. Best of luck for the new week - Arun, Venkat and Rickin

Last Week in GER Research: Huya, Bilibili and Qutoutiao

Below is a recap of the key analysis produced by the Global Equity Research team. This week, we update on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24423" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24423:1">Lyft Inc (LYFT US)</a> now that it is below its IPO price and remind of the potentially muted impact for strategic holder <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/31" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a>. On the M&amp;A front, Arun digs into the conditional deal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20374" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1104" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1104:1">Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU)</a>. With regards to IPO research, we initiate on e-commerce player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27997" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27997:1">Yunji Inc. (YJ US)</a> and solar company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27808" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27808:1">Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd (1671746D HK)</a> while we update on the IPO valuation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27992" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27992:1">Ruhnn Holding Ltd (RUHN US)</a>. In addition, we have provided an updated calendar of upcoming catalysts for EVENT driven names below. Best of luck for the new week - Arun, Venkat and Rickin

Below is a recap of the key analysis produced by the Global Equity Research team. This week, we update on Lyft Inc (LYFT US) now that it is below its IPO price and remind of the potentially muted impact for strategic holder Rakuten Inc (4755 JP). On the M&amp;A front, Arun digs into the conditional deal for Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) from Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU). With regards to IPO research, we initiate on e-commerce player Yunji Inc. (YJ US) and solar company Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd (1671746D HK) while we update on the IPO valuation of Ruhnn Holding Ltd (RUHN US). In addition, we have provided an updated calendar of upcoming catalysts for EVENT driven names below. Best of luck for the new week - Arun, Venkat and Rickin

Last Week in GER Research: Lyft, Rakuten, Lynas, Yunji IPO, Xinyi IPO and Ruhnn IPO

United States

PG&E Corporation is a holding company that holds interests in energy based businesses.  The Company's holdings include a public utility operating in northern and central California that provides electricity and natural gas distribution; electricity generation, procurement, and transmission; and natural gas procurement, transportation, and storage.

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P G & E Corp (PCG US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading and Buying Utilities

Indexes continue to violate our key supports on the Russell 2000 (IWM), the S&P 500, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW). Most opportunities...

Vermilion Research

Global Clean Energy Index: 52 Adds, 55% Index Turnover, US$12bn to Trade

There are 52 additions to the S&P Global Clean Energy Index. One-way turnover is nearly 55% and the ETF benchmarked to the index will need to trade...

Brian Freitas

ESG and Stock Prices: Fat-Tail Events

Imagine a sell-side analyst calls. You ignore it, of course, and the voicemail goes like this: This is Hunter from Barr, King, Seals. We're...

Kyle Rudden

Last Week in GER Research: Huya, Bilibili and Qutoutiao

Below is a recap of the key IPO/placement research produced by the Global Equity Research team. This week, we update on the bevvy of placements...

Rickin Thakrar

Last Week in GER Research: Lyft, Rakuten, Lynas, Yunji IPO, Xinyi IPO and Ruhnn IPO

Below is a recap of the key analysis produced by the Global Equity Research team. This week, we update on Lyft Inc (LYFT US) now that it is below...

Rickin Thakrar

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