Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

LR Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In Today's IssueA Corruption convention, chicken nuggets, rampant growth of corporate market power, Turkish airport passenger growth, reducing packet switching bottlenecks, high tax countries encourage tax havens, 'Emma' helps sign mortgages in Singapore, PBoC governor continues his grumpy man routine, Foreign credit cards are not welcome in China and Brazil's Finance Minister hides his money for charity.<div class="content-highlight">1.  The Conference of the States Parties to the United Nations Convention against Corruption…</div>

In Today's IssueA Corruption convention, chicken nuggets, rampant growth of corporate market power, Turkish airport passenger growth, reducing packet switching bottlenecks, high tax countries encourage tax havens, 'Emma' helps sign mortgages in Singapore, PBoC governor continues his grumpy man routine, Foreign credit cards are not welcome in China and Brazil's Finance Minister hides his money for charity.1.  The Conference of the States Parties to the United Nations Convention against Corruption…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

It is a stark reminder that all is not well in the oil and gas service sector in Singapore with the 2Q17 loss at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8665" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8665:1">Ezion Holdings Ltd (EZI SP)</a> and its subsequent suspension on the stock exchange.  It is in fact one of the largest holders of debt in the Singapore oil and gas service sector. In our own sampling three months ago, it ranked number three of 25 companies in total. Expect continued deterioration in credit metrics for Singapore’s banks and higher impairment costs as a result.   It was…

It is a stark reminder that all is not well in the oil and gas service sector in Singapore with the 2Q17 loss at Ezion Holdings Ltd (EZI SP) and its subsequent suspension on the stock exchange.  It is in fact one of the largest holders of debt in the Singapore oil and gas service sector. In our own sampling three months ago, it ranked number three of 25 companies in total. Expect continued deterioration in credit metrics for Singapore’s banks and higher impairment costs as a result.   It was…

Ezion Holdings: A Reminder of Risks Facing Singapore's Banks

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

We looked at which regions in Asia are most correlated to the S&amp;P500. Over the last 8 years, 42% of Japanese companies have greater than 30% correlation to the S&amp;P500. The overall average correlation to the S&amp;P500 in Japan is 28%. The next closest is Taiwan with an average correlation of 28%, then Singapore with a correlation of 27% and Hong Kong with a correlation of 25%.  <h2>% of Companies with greater than 30% correlation to the US </h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/032/861/original/5.png?1504629108" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="32861"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div>China actually has 1 company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10177" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10177:1">Tongling</a>…

We looked at which regions in Asia are most correlated to the S&amp;P500. Over the last 8 years, 42% of Japanese companies have greater than 30% correlation to the S&amp;P500. The overall average correlation to the S&amp;P500 in Japan is 28%. The next closest is Taiwan with an average correlation of 28%, then Singapore with a correlation of 27% and Hong Kong with a correlation of 25%.  % of Companies with greater than 30% correlation to the US Source: Custom ProductsChina actually has 1 company, Tongling…

Japan and the Financial Sector in Asia Highly Correlated to the US....

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index / Technical Analysis

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is breaking out from a two-year base. Relative strength (vs. MSCI ACWI ex-US) depicts a similar pattern; after lagging since mid-2015, its RS trend has slowly rounded higher, resulting in the recent breakout. Combined, this warrants an overweight.Today’s report is a country by country review of leadership and actionable themes within the region, including stock recommendations.

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is breaking out from a two-year base. Relative strength (vs. MSCI ACWI ex-US) depicts a similar pattern; after lagging since mid-2015, its RS trend has slowly rounded higher, resulting in the recent breakout. Combined, this warrants an overweight.Today’s report is a country by country review of leadership and actionable themes within the region, including stock recommendations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/114" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. Limited (OCBC SP)</a> describes its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13993" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1">Great Eastern Holdings Ltd (GE SP; "GEH")</a> non-operating profit as mainly comprising “changes in the fair value of assets and liabilities, realized gains or losses on sale of investments, changes in liability discount rates and other non-recurring items.”  Without this so-called income stream, OCBC’s headline profit would not be so strong. Indeed, it reports bank only profit growth at 5% YoY in 2Q17, which to us makes more sense than…

Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. Limited (OCBC SP) describes its Great Eastern Holdings Ltd (GE SP; "GEH") non-operating profit as mainly comprising “changes in the fair value of assets and liabilities, realized gains or losses on sale of investments, changes in liability discount rates and other non-recurring items.”  Without this so-called income stream, OCBC’s headline profit would not be so strong. Indeed, it reports bank only profit growth at 5% YoY in 2Q17, which to us makes more sense than…

OCBC Group Profit Inflated from GEH, Much of Which Is Non-Operational

Singapore

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

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OCBC (OCBC SP)

21 Things Worth Knowing (#10)

In Today's IssueA Corruption convention, chicken nuggets, rampant growth of corporate market power, Turkish airport passenger growth, reducing...

Mark Artherton

Ezion Holdings: A Reminder of Risks Facing Singapore's Banks

It is a stark reminder that all is not well in the oil and gas service sector in Singapore with the 2Q17 loss at Ezion Holdings Ltd (EZI SP) and...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan and the Financial Sector in Asia Highly Correlated to the US....

We looked at which regions in Asia are most correlated to the S&P500. Over the last 8 years, 42% of Japanese companies have greater than 30%...

Custom Products Group

Asia: Developing Leadership

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is...

Vermilion Research

OCBC Group Profit Inflated from GEH, Much of Which Is Non-Operational

Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. Limited (OCBC SP) describes its Great Eastern Holdings Ltd (GE SP; "GEH") non-operating profit as mainly comprising...

Daniel Tabbush

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