Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Half of Singapore’s industrial, materials and energy companies in our S&amp;P CIQ sample set with over US$100 million in debt, have seen a worsening of interest cover in the most recent quarter. We believe this is at odds with market perception and is considered inconsistent with rising oil prices. It is though the reality. This has important implications for Singapore’s banks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1">DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/114" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/113" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:113:1">United Overseas Bank (UOB SP)</a>. Where many may…

Half of Singapore’s industrial, materials and energy companies in our S&amp;P CIQ sample set with over US$100 million in debt, have seen a worsening of interest cover in the most recent quarter. We believe this is at odds with market perception and is considered inconsistent with rising oil prices. It is though the reality. This has important implications for Singapore’s banks, DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP),Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC SP) and United Overseas Bank (UOB SP). Where many may…

Singapore Banks – Corporate Financial Metrics Point to Ongoing Credit Risk

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Actionable Charts from Smart Karma’s Most-Searched Tickers.We ran through a list of the most frequently searched tickers on the SmartKarma platform using the Discovery Tool.  See the attached report for a complete list of our recommendations from this list.

Actionable Charts from Smart Karma’s Most-Searched Tickers.We ran through a list of the most frequently searched tickers on the SmartKarma platform using the Discovery Tool.  See the attached report for a complete list of our recommendations from this list.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/114" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. Limited (OCBC SP)</a> recorded S$12 million in 1Q18 impairment costs. The figure has been closer to S$150 million per quarter for the past two years.  The figure is well below the more typical range of S$75-100 million each quarter during years 2011 through 2014. We would caution against an optimistic read-through for coming quarters. Figures are an anomaly in most every respect.  At the same time, 2Q17 net profit was exceptionally strong compared with 1Q17, so that…

Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. Limited (OCBC SP) recorded S$12 million in 1Q18 impairment costs. The figure has been closer to S$150 million per quarter for the past two years.  The figure is well below the more typical range of S$75-100 million each quarter during years 2011 through 2014. We would caution against an optimistic read-through for coming quarters. Figures are an anomaly in most every respect.  At the same time, 2Q17 net profit was exceptionally strong compared with 1Q17, so that…

We are the first to admit, that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/113" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:113:1">United Overseas Bank Ltd (UOB SP)</a> core income drivers in 1Q18 were good. Funding cost growth was relatively subdued compared with interest income growth. If this lasts, it would be a positive, although there can be a lag with rates and term deposit costs. Basic loan-related fees and wealth management income drove non-interest income, and unlike for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1">DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBS SP)</a>, net trading income was down significantly for UOB. This line item, therefor does not…

We are the first to admit, that United Overseas Bank Ltd (UOB SP) core income drivers in 1Q18 were good. Funding cost growth was relatively subdued compared with interest income growth. If this lasts, it would be a positive, although there can be a lag with rates and term deposit costs. Basic loan-related fees and wealth management income drove non-interest income, and unlike for DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBS SP), net trading income was down significantly for UOB. This line item, therefor does not…

Singapore Banks – Operational Positives at UOB Should Not Conceal Credit Quality Realities

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

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DBS, OCBC and UOB averaged 8% gains in April-to-date, bringing average YTD total returns to 14%, and 12 month average total returns to 50%. April has seen the three banks trade at all-time highs, with DBS recently trading at a high of S$30.00.
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The three banks currently average a 1.5x P/B, above the 10 year average P/B, and in-line with the 20 year average. In the YTD institutional investors were net buyers of the three banks, with inflows totalling S$1.12 billion, following net inflows of S$3.39…</li>
</ul>



DBS, OCBC and UOB averaged 8% gains in April-to-date, bringing average YTD total returns to 14%, and 12 month average total returns to 50%. April has seen the three banks trade at all-time highs, with DBS recently trading at a high of S$30.00.


The three banks currently average a 1.5x P/B, above the 10 year average P/B, and in-line with the 20 year average. In the YTD institutional investors were net buyers of the three banks, with inflows totalling S$1.12 billion, following net inflows of S$3.39…


DBS, OCBC & UOB Average 50% Returns Over Past 12M

Singapore

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

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OCBC (OCBC SP)

Singapore Banks – Corporate Financial Metrics Point to Ongoing Credit Risk

Half of Singapore’s industrial, materials and energy companies in our S&P CIQ sample set with over US$100 million in debt, have seen a...

Daniel Tabbush

Popular Stocks, Attractive Charts

Actionable Charts from Smart Karma’s Most-Searched Tickers.We ran through a list of the most frequently searched tickers on the SmartKarma platform...

Vermilion Research

OCBC – S$12 Million Credit Costs

Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. Limited (OCBC SP) recorded S$12 million in 1Q18 impairment costs. The figure has been closer to S$150 million per...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Banks – Operational Positives at UOB Should Not Conceal Credit Quality Realities

We are the first to admit, that United Overseas Bank Ltd (UOB SP) core income drivers in 1Q18 were good. Funding cost growth was relatively subdued...

Daniel Tabbush

DBS, OCBC & UOB Average 50% Returns Over Past 12M

DBS, OCBC and UOB averaged 8% gains in April-to-date, bringing average YTD total returns to 14%, and 12 month average total returns to 50%. April...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)