Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In Jun 2023, CPPIB raised around US$750m via selling a 1.6% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a>. Prior to that it had sold a similar amount in Mar 2022.</li>
<li>CPPIB will be released from its placement linked lockup early next month.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and past deals performance.</li>
</ul>


In Jun 2023, CPPIB raised around US$750m via selling a 1.6% stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN). Prior to that it had sold a similar amount in Mar 2022.
CPPIB will be released from its placement linked lockup early next month.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and past deals performance.


Kotak Mahindra Bank - US$1.2 Billion Lockup Release

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>DBS is now guiding for no profit growth during FY24. This may end up missing with negative growth more statistically likely, in a worsening world. </li>
<li>Credit metrics are not particularly positive in today's release with SGD215m of credit costs compared with SGD72m in the preceding quarter. </li>
<li>If rate rises are done or nearly done, than the main positive delta of DBS earnings are also done or nearly done. Management guidance suggests as much too. </li>
</ul>


DBS is now guiding for no profit growth during FY24. This may end up missing with negative growth more statistically likely, in a worsening world. 
Credit metrics are not particularly positive in today's release with SGD215m of credit costs compared with SGD72m in the preceding quarter. 
If rate rises are done or nearly done, than the main positive delta of DBS earnings are also done or nearly done. Management guidance suggests as much too. 


DBS - 0% Growth Guidance for FY24 | Quarterly Credit Costs Surging | As Good as It Gets

<ul>
<li>Our focus is not on the decimation of earnings at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> but rather the granular detail of stage 2 and stage 3 loans</li>
<li>There is tremendous growth in stage 2 loans in the quarter, which means the bank enters the quarter with a far higher pool that can migrate to stage 3</li>
<li>Stage 3 remains markedly higher provisions, and the bank's rise in credit costs is still fairly low, it can rise another 50% before hitting average rates </li>
</ul>


Our focus is not on the decimation of earnings at Standard Chartered (STAN LN) but rather the granular detail of stage 2 and stage 3 loans
There is tremendous growth in stage 2 loans in the quarter, which means the bank enters the quarter with a far higher pool that can migrate to stage 3
Stage 3 remains markedly higher provisions, and the bank's rise in credit costs is still fairly low, it can rise another 50% before hitting average rates 


STAN - Stage 2 Loans Surge | Expect Migration to Stage 3 Loans | Credit Costs Can Move 50% Higher

<ul>
<li>There is no refuting the strong net interest income figures at DBS, although it seems toppy</li>
<li>DBS took credit costs/assets at 4bps in 2Q23 vs 13bps average during FY18, FY19 quarterly</li>
<li>There are not many banks that we can turn too with over 50% QoQ decline in credit costs</li>
</ul>


There is no refuting the strong net interest income figures at DBS, although it seems toppy
DBS took credit costs/assets at 4bps in 2Q23 vs 13bps average during FY18, FY19 quarterly
There are not many banks that we can turn too with over 50% QoQ decline in credit costs


DBS - Is This the Time To Take Provision Expenses at 70% Lower than Average?

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nusantara-sejahtera-raya" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39908:1" rel="noopener">Cinema XXI (CINEMA IJ)</a> aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO.</li>
<li>Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&amp;B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Cinema XXI (CINEMA IJ) aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO.
Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&amp;B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO - The Negatives - Private Placement, Not a Primary Raising

Singapore

United Overseas Bank Limited provides a wide range of financial services including personal financial services, wealth management, private banking, commercial and corporate banking, transaction banking, investment banking, corporate finance, capital market activities, treasury services, futures broking, asset management, venture capital management and insurance.

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

Singapore Exchange Limited owns and operates Singapore's Securities and derivatives exchange and their related clearing houses.  The Company also provides ancillary securities processing and information technology services to participants in the financial sector.

Great Eastern Holdings Limited operates in the life insurance business. The Company provides fund management services including retirement plans and endowments as well as life and health insurance, personal accident insurance, and general insurance

UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Limited is an investment holding company whose subsidiaries provide management services.  The Company provides stock broking, futures broking, investment trading, nominee services, margin financing, and research activities.

Hong Leong Finance Limited provides depository and financing services to its clients.  The Company's services include hire purchase, leasing, factoring, mortgages, and other secured loans in the commercial, industrial, and consumer sectors.

Yangzijiang Financial Holding Ltd operates as an investment holding company. The Company serves customers in Singapore.

Pacific Century Regional Developments Limited operates in the holding of investments and development of infrastructure and properties.

Pacific Century Regional Developments (PAC SP)

Valuemax Group Ltd. operates pawnshops. The Company provides the valuation of products for pawning, selling and buying through its outlet stores..

G. K. Goh Holdings Limited is a diversified investment holding company with significant exposure to the aged care industry, corporate and business services, property development and fibre networks.

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited is a full service commercial bank. The Bank offers a wide range of products and services such as personal, commercial, and corporate banking services, including deposit accounts, loans, and investments. Kotak Mahindra Bank serves customers in India.

Fifth Third Bancorp is a diversified financial services company that operates banking centers in the Midwestern and Southeastern regions of the United States. The Company's principal businesses include retail banking, commercial banking, investment advisory, and data processing.

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. is a diversified financial services organization.  The Company provides regional banking, wholesale banking, and asset management services nationally and in the Company's primary regional markets.

BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited provides a comprehensive range of financial products and services to retail and corporate customers.  Its products include retail banking, corporate banking, and treasury services.  The Company operates its branches in Hong Kong and China.

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk is formed by the merger of four state-owned banks, namely Pt Bank Bumi Daya, PT Bank Dagang Negara, PT Bank Ekspor Import Indonesia (Bank Exim), PT Bank Pembangunan Indonesia (Bank Bapindo). The Bank operates in the commercial banking services.

Westpac Banking Corporation offers general and savings banking services.  The Company provides investment portfolio management and advice, insurance services,  consumer finance, and money market services among other services.  Westpac Banking Corp. serves individuals, businesses, and corporations worldwide.

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides commercial banking activities and its related services. The Bank also provides banking activities based on shariah principles.

Bank of Nova Scotia provides retail, commercial, international, corporate, investment and private banking services and products.

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co., Ltd. provides banking services. The Company provides loans, deposits, accounts settlement, foreign exchange, and other services. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank provides its services to individuals, companies, and other groups.

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. (600000 CH)

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

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OCBC (OCBC SP)

Kotak Mahindra Bank - US$1.2 Billion Lockup Release

In Jun 2023, CPPIB raised around US$750m via selling a 1.6% stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN). Prior to that it had sold a similar amount in...

Sumeet Singh

DBS - 0% Growth Guidance for FY24 | Quarterly Credit Costs Surging | As Good as It Gets

DBS is now guiding for 0% profit growth during FY24. The figures out today appear very much 'as good as they get.' Credit metrics are worsening,...

Daniel Tabbush

STAN - Stage 2 Loans Surge | Expect Migration to Stage 3 Loans | Credit Costs Can Move 50% Higher

STAN's traditional credit costs are surging and remain well below long term averages. Rising stage 2 loans are the real concern, with migration...

Daniel Tabbush

DBS - Is This the Time To Take Provision Expenses at 70% Lower than Average?

With July domestic credit growth turning negative at -3% YoY this is a new development, and the delta in Singapore credit growth downward has been...

Daniel Tabbush

Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO - The Negatives - Private Placement, Not a Primary Raising

Cinema XXI (CINEMA IJ) aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

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