Freelance Research Analyst

Tay Hock Meng

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The government introduced the new Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) Master Plan 2014 which spelt out various initiatives to enhance and transform the way we live and work in urban cities like Singapore. One of the main objectives under the Master Plan is to enhance mobility, and bringing jobs closer to home through a network of park connectors, and integrated transport infrastructure.</p><p>Under the Master Plan, there are five new regional centres being identified by the government to spur development of regional urban centres, and moving towards decentralisation. These five regional centres being identified are Woodlands Regional Centre, the Jurong Lake District, the City Centre, Paya Lebar Central, and the Punggol Creative Cluster and Learning Corridor. These regional centres have relatively high population densities and are specifically targeted for many new infrastructure developments that will be introduced over the next few years.</p><p>A look at some of the potential investment opportunities of each regional centre based on one-year percentage $ psf changes of each real estate segment:</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

The government introduced the new Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) Master Plan 2014 which spelt out various initiatives to enhance and transform the way we live and work in urban cities like Singapore. One of the main objectives under the Master Plan is to enhance mobility, and bringing jobs closer to home through a network of park connectors, and integrated transport infrastructure.Under the Master Plan, there are five new regional centres being identified by the government to spur development of regional urban centres, and moving towards decentralisation. These five regional centres being identified are Woodlands Regional Centre, the Jurong Lake District, the City Centre, Paya Lebar Central, and the Punggol Creative Cluster and Learning Corridor. These regional centres have relatively high population densities and are specifically targeted for many new infrastructure developments that will be introduced over the next few years.A look at some of the potential investment opportunities of each regional centre based on one-year percentage $ psf changes of each real estate segment:&nbsp;

New development growth strategies under URA Master Plan 2014

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We should not forget about the latent, but hidden risk facing banks off balance sheet.</li><li><em>In a crisis, when banks become risk averse, and where companies find economic circumstances changing radically, there is more risk that these so-called off balance sheet items move on-balance sheet. Unwittingly.</em></li><li>This can result in a spur of unwanted loan growth for banks, and it also something to watch for. High loan growth at a time of risk aversion can simply be the off balance sheet moving on balance sheet. This is generally poor quality growth.</li><li>Some banks traditionally touted as safe havens have surprisingly high Off Balance Sheet Liabilities to Equity.&nbsp;It is impossible to say if these banks will face difficulties with customers drawing down on these off balance sheet facilities or not, but holding all else equal, these banks are far more exposed vs. capital than others in Asia.</li></ul><p>More below the fold....&nbsp;</p>

We should not forget about the latent, but hidden risk facing banks off balance sheet.In a crisis, when banks become risk averse, and where companies find economic circumstances changing radically, there is more risk that these so-called off balance sheet items move on-balance sheet. Unwittingly.This can result in a spur of unwanted loan growth for banks, and it also something to watch for. High loan growth at a time of risk aversion can simply be the off balance sheet moving on balance sheet. This is generally poor quality growth.Some banks traditionally touted as safe havens have surprisingly high Off Balance Sheet Liabilities to Equity.&nbsp;It is impossible to say if these banks will face difficulties with customers drawing down on these off balance sheet facilities or not, but holding all else equal, these banks are far more exposed vs. capital than others in Asia.More below the fold....&nbsp;

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<p><em><strong>&lsquo;Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain&rsquo;</strong>&nbsp;</em><em>- Wizard of Oz</em></p><p>The nature and scale of Beijing&rsquo;s reaction to the bursting of the China equity bubble should dispel two of the three myths which supposedly justified the bull market, namely that the administration was in firm control of events and that it was intent on implementing a programme of liberal reforms towards the economy and financial markets.</p><p>The one remaining myth, which is still being propagated by the China bulls, is that despite the continuing growth slowdown, the underlying state of the Chinese economy is sound. Mark is currently undertaking a study of the financial characteristics of the Chinese corporate sector, which we intend to publish in early September. For this piece I am taking some of his preliminary findings to <strong>illustrate the fault lines, which exist through the Chinese economy and which continue to underpin our bearish view towards the Chinese economy and equity market.</strong></p>

&lsquo;Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain&rsquo;&nbsp;- Wizard of OzThe nature and scale of Beijing&rsquo;s reaction to the bursting of the China equity bubble should dispel two of the three myths which supposedly justified the bull market, namely that the administration was in firm control of events and that it was intent on implementing a programme of liberal reforms towards the economy and financial markets.The one remaining myth, which is still being propagated by the China bulls, is that despite the continuing growth slowdown, the underlying state of the Chinese economy is sound. Mark is currently undertaking a study of the financial characteristics of the Chinese corporate sector, which we intend to publish in early September. For this piece I am taking some of his preliminary findings to illustrate the fault lines, which exist through the Chinese economy and which continue to underpin our bearish view towards the Chinese economy and equity market.

CHINA: Reform & Omnipotence Myths Dispelled

<div><div><div>Let me begin by revisiting the road map for the bear market in EM equities which I first outlined in my role as EM equity strategist for Deutsche Bank towards the end of 2010 and the start of 2011, at a time when the consensus outlook for EM economies and equities was almost unanimously bullish.</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div>I made a number of tentative predictions and recommendations, which were generally greeted with a combination of indifference and skepticism and on occasion outright hostility among most, though not quite all of the bank&rsquo;s clients.</div><div>&nbsp;</div></div></div><div><div><strong>It seems that we may now be entering the final stage of EM relative underperformance, in line with our expectations in our initiation last year where we posited the relative trade was 2/3rds through.</strong></div></div>

Let me begin by revisiting the road map for the bear market in EM equities which I first outlined in my role as EM equity strategist for Deutsche Bank towards the end of 2010 and the start of 2011, at a time when the consensus outlook for EM economies and equities was almost unanimously bullish.&nbsp;I made a number of tentative predictions and recommendations, which were generally greeted with a combination of indifference and skepticism and on occasion outright hostility among most, though not quite all of the bank&rsquo;s clients.&nbsp;It seems that we may now be entering the final stage of EM relative underperformance, in line with our expectations in our initiation last year where we posited the relative trade was 2/3rds through.

A Roadmap of the EM Bear Market and Three Myths about the China Bull Market

Asia's Leading Online Property Group, PropertyGuru

Bjorn Sprengers

Asia's Leading Online Property Group

PropertyGuru

PropertyGuru Pte Ltd owns and operates a real estate property information website. The Company offers facilities to search for condominiums, apartments, Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats, serviced apartments, houses, and commercial properties to rent and buy in Singapore.

<p>Since the implementation of TDSR we have seen seven consecutive quarters of decline in price for the condo market, which has been accompanied by sluggish sales volumes. However, the decline has not been uniform across the segments, with CCR feeling the initial brunt but now possibly showing early signs of stabilizing, while OCR&nbsp;seems to be catching up with the other two segments, in terms of price decline.</p><p>With no indication from the government of any reversal of the measures, the negative trend could continue.&nbsp;Based on high supply of upcoming new launches and prices stabilizing, we predict these trends for H2 2015:</p><ul><li>Volume: Decline further, with a possible rebound in 4Q, ending the year with 9,000 to 10,000 total transactions</li><li>Price: 5 %to 8% decline, more than that seen in 2014 (4.3%) to take prices back to 1Q11 levels</li><li>Likelihood of prices bottoming out by 3Q/4Q 2015</li></ul>

Since the implementation of TDSR we have seen seven consecutive quarters of decline in price for the condo market, which has been accompanied by sluggish sales volumes. However, the decline has not been uniform across the segments, with CCR feeling the initial brunt but now possibly showing early signs of stabilizing, while OCR&nbsp;seems to be catching up with the other two segments, in terms of price decline.With no indication from the government of any reversal of the measures, the negative trend could continue.&nbsp;Based on high supply of upcoming new launches and prices stabilizing, we predict these trends for H2 2015:Volume: Decline further, with a possible rebound in 4Q, ending the year with 9,000 to 10,000 total transactionsPrice: 5 %to 8% decline, more than that seen in 2014 (4.3%) to take prices back to 1Q11 levelsLikelihood of prices bottoming out by 3Q/4Q 2015

PropertyGuru's outlook for Singapore condo market

Singapore

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

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OCBC (OCBC SP)

New development growth strategies under URA Master Plan 2014

The government introduced the new Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) Master Plan 2014 which spelt out various initiatives to enhance and transform...

Tay Hock Meng

Beware of Banks' Off Balance Sheet Risk

We should not forget about the latent, but hidden risk facing banks off balance sheet. In a crisis, when banks become risk averse, and where...

Daniel Tabbush

CHINA: Reform & Omnipotence Myths Dispelled

‘Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain’ - Wizard of OzThe nature and scale of Beijing’s reaction to the bursting of the China equity...

John-Paul Smith

A Roadmap of the EM Bear Market and Three Myths about the China Bull Market

Let me begin by revisiting the road map for the bear market in EM equities which I first outlined in my role as EM equity strategist for Deutsche...

John-Paul Smith

PropertyGuru's outlook for Singapore condo market

Since the implementation of TDSR we have seen seven consecutive quarters of decline in price for the condo market, which has been accompanied by...

PropertyGuru

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