Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Adding a new strategy I call TARP – Tariff-Proof at a Reasonable Price. Stocks need to have little or no direct or indirect exposure to the US unless locally procured.</li>
<li>Kotobuki (2222), Kikkoman (2801), and Orix JREIT (8954) are all close to bullet-proof.</li>
<li>Yamada (9831) proves that what the market is looking for is a concept of a plan, not necessarily results.</li>
</ul>


Adding a new strategy I call TARP – Tariff-Proof at a Reasonable Price. Stocks need to have little or no direct or indirect exposure to the US unless locally procured.
Kotobuki (2222), Kikkoman (2801), and Orix JREIT (8954) are all close to bullet-proof.
Yamada (9831) proves that what the market is looking for is a concept of a plan, not necessarily results.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Japan Metropolitan Fund Investment Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

Japan Metropolitan Fund Investment Corporation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-metropolitan-fund-investment-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:735:1" rel="noopener">Japan Metropolitan Fund Investment Corporation (8953 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$140m to partly fund the acquisition of four assets.</li>
<li>The deal will be relatively small, in terms of ADV and dilution.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Japan Metropolitan Fund Investment Corporation (8953 JP) aims to raise around US$140m to partly fund the acquisition of four assets.
The deal will be relatively small, in terms of ADV and dilution.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Japan Metropolitan Fund Placement - Relatively Small Deal to Digest

Invincible Investment / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invincible-investment-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3617:1" rel="noopener">Invincible Investment (8963 JP)</a> plans to raise around US$230m to fund the acquisition of six hotel assets in Japan.</li>
<li>The stock has done well over the past year and so have most of its deals which we have covered in the past.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Invincible Investment (8963 JP) plans to raise around US$230m to fund the acquisition of six hotel assets in Japan.
The stock has done well over the past year and so have most of its deals which we have covered in the past.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Invincible Investment Corp Placement - Decent Accretion Despite the Large Dilution

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

Nippon Building Fund / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-building-fund-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1900:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP)</a> is looking to raise around US$260m in its Primary Offering, to fund the acquisition of two properties.</li>
<li>Target acquisitions are expected to be accretive however, the deal comes amidst weaker sector sentiment and analysts have grown more pessimistic on the REIT’s unit price. </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) is looking to raise around US$260m in its Primary Offering, to fund the acquisition of two properties.
Target acquisitions are expected to be accretive however, the deal comes amidst weaker sector sentiment and analysts have grown more pessimistic on the REIT’s unit price. 
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Nippon Building Fund Placement - Weak Sentiment, However, Past Deals Have Performed Well

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-building-fund-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1900:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP)</a> announced a smallish primary offering to assist in funding a portion of its Asset Replacement Campaign involving sales and purchases and an uplift in DPU.</li>
<li>That is an occasion to look at how much of float is held by passive trackers. </li>
<li>A test was done on the top 10 J-REITs on a holder-by-holder basis to see what one could expect at a minimum. The result may surprise some.</li>
</ul>



Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) announced a smallish primary offering to assist in funding a portion of its Asset Replacement Campaign involving sales and purchases and an uplift in DPU.
That is an occasion to look at how much of float is held by passive trackers. 
A test was done on the top 10 J-REITs on a holder-by-holder basis to see what one could expect at a minimum. The result may surprise some.


Nippon Building Fund (8951) - Calculating Passive Tracking of J-REITs and Index Events Around Offers

Japan

ORIX JREIT Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) which invests in securitized real estate products.  The Company directly invests in real estate properties such as offices, rental housings, and hotels.

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Orix JREIT Inc (8954 JP)

Unloved Japan: Cheap & Tariff-Proof

New strategy TARP focuses on investing in stocks with little to no exposure to the US, highlighting companies like Kotobuki, Kikkoman, and Orix...

Michael Allen

Japan Metropolitan Fund Placement - Relatively Small Deal to Digest

Japan Metropolitan Fund Investment Corporation (8953 JP) aims to raise around US$140m to partly fund the acquisition of four assets.

Sumeet Singh

Invincible Investment Corp Placement - Decent Accretion Despite the Large Dilution

Invincible Investment plans to raise around US$230m to fund the acquisition of six hotel assets in Japan. In this note, we talk about the deal...

Sumeet Singh

Nippon Building Fund Placement - Weak Sentiment, However, Past Deals Have Performed Well

Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) is looking to raise around US$260m in its Primary Offering, to fund the acquisition of two properties.

Clarence Chu

Nippon Building Fund (8951) - Calculating Passive Tracking of J-REITs and Index Events Around Offers

Nippon Building Fund (8951) - Japan's oldest and largest REIT - announced a small secondary offering. That provides an occasion to look at J-REIT...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Unloved Japan: Cheap & Tariff-Proof

​New strategy TARP focuses on investing in stocks with little to no exposure to the US, highlighting companies like Kotobuki, Kikkoman, and Orix...

Michael Allen

Japan Metropolitan Fund Placement - Relatively Small Deal to Digest

Japan Metropolitan Fund Investment Corporation (8953 JP) aims to raise around US$140m to partly fund the acquisition of four assets.

Sumeet Singh

Invincible Investment Corp Placement - Decent Accretion Despite the Large Dilution

Invincible Investment plans to raise around US$230m to fund the acquisition of six hotel assets in Japan. In this note, we talk about the deal...

Sumeet Singh

Nippon Building Fund Placement - Weak Sentiment, However, Past Deals Have Performed Well

Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) is looking to raise around US$260m in its Primary Offering, to fund the acquisition of two properties.

Clarence Chu

Nippon Building Fund (8951) - Calculating Passive Tracking of J-REITs and Index Events Around Offers

Nippon Building Fund (8951) - Japan's oldest and largest REIT - announced a small secondary offering. That provides an occasion to look at J-REIT...

Travis Lundy

New strategy TARP focuses on investing in stocks with little to no exposure to the US, highlighting companies like Kotobuki, Kikkoman, and Orix...