Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Only about 1/3 of of the recently announced share buy back is done, the remainder will come from now through end of March 2024. </li>
<li>Earnings are far higher than the bank's forecast, and there should be a major revision in coming weeks. </li>
<li>Credit Saison collaboration and exiting BOJ negative rate policy, should provide a multitude of positives, for revenue growth.</li>
</ul>


Only about 1/3 of of the recently announced share buy back is done, the remainder will come from now through end of March 2024. 
Earnings are far higher than the bank's forecast, and there should be a major revision in coming weeks. 
Credit Saison collaboration and exiting BOJ negative rate policy, should provide a multitude of positives, for revenue growth.


Suruga Bank - Only 33% of Buyback Done, Profit Guidance to Rise a Lot, Credit Saison Support Growth

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

MGM Resorts International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The US and Macau casino operator and its Japanese partner Orix Corporation may face tough odds to produce a viable ROI in a project that could reach over US$10b when done.</li>
<li>The Osaka casino resort will be the single most expensive IR ever built. Cost overruns historically are significant.</li>
<li>MGM shares could see a spike when officials announce winning bids by Spring or before. MGM is the only bidder left for Osaka.</li>
</ul>


The US and Macau casino operator and its Japanese partner Orix Corporation may face tough odds to produce a viable ROI in a project that could reach over US$10b when done.
The Osaka casino resort will be the single most expensive IR ever built. Cost overruns historically are significant.
MGM shares could see a spike when officials announce winning bids by Spring or before. MGM is the only bidder left for Osaka.


MGM's Osaka IR Aims at a US$9b Cost with Initial US$2.5b. It Might Be a Bridge Too Far

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

* Poor Results To Continue: Orix (8591.JP/IX.US) reported consolidated FY (March) 1Q21 results of JPY 50.0 bn, declining JPY 19.2 bn (28%) YOY and below consensus forecasts. The bulk of the decline can be attributed to a JPY 12.2 bn reduction in capital gains; and* Opacity Doesn’t Help: ORIX is a riddle. Its business structure makes it relatively opaque and quite difficult to gauge profitability. ORIX shares have fallen to their March lows, and earnings/dividends expectations now lack confidence.

* Poor Results To Continue: Orix (8591.JP/IX.US) reported consolidated FY (March) 1Q21 results of JPY 50.0 bn, declining JPY 19.2 bn (28%) YOY and below consensus forecasts. The bulk of the decline can be attributed to a JPY 12.2 bn reduction in capital gains; and* Opacity Doesn’t Help: ORIX is a riddle. Its business structure makes it relatively opaque and quite difficult to gauge profitability. ORIX shares have fallen to their March lows, and earnings/dividends expectations now lack confidence.

<ul>
<li>Would be operators growing restless with uncertainties about regulations and policies to come and public opposition.</li>
<li>Pachinko culture driving public opposition. Government has not educated masses to understand differences between IRs and Pachinko parlors as leisure activities.</li>
</ul>


Would be operators growing restless with uncertainties about regulations and policies to come and public opposition.
Pachinko culture driving public opposition. Government has not educated masses to understand differences between IRs and Pachinko parlors as leisure activities.


Japan Casinos: Muddled, Murky Government Trying the Patience of Would-Be Bidders

Japan

ORIX Corporation provides comprehensive financial services throughout the world. The Company's business lines include leasing, real estate loans, life insurance, banking, and consumer finance.  The Company also operates Environment related business and Private equity investment business. ORIX has a professional baseball team, the ORIX Buffalos.

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ORIX (IX US)

Suruga Bank - Only 33% of Buyback Done, Profit Guidance to Rise a Lot, Credit Saison Support Growth

Suruga Bank has done ~33% of its recent share buyback, the rest will come through March. The bank has earned far above its guidance, expect profit...

Daniel Tabbush

MGM's Osaka IR Aims at a US$9b Cost with Initial US$2.5b. It Might Be a Bridge Too Far

MGM/Orix partnership is likely to win Osaka IR license. Sunk cost may be much higher than anticipated, but news of approval next spring could spike...

Howard J Klein

ORIX Corp.– Enigma Wrapped In A Riddle

* Poor Results To Continue: Orix (8591.JP/IX.US) reported consolidated FY (March) 1Q21 results of JPY 50.0 bn, declining JPY 19.2 bn (28%) YOY and...

Thomas J. Monaco

Japan Casinos: Muddled, Murky Government Trying the Patience of Would-Be Bidders

Would be operators growing restless with uncertainties about regulations and policies to come and public opposition. Pachinko culture driving...

Howard J Klein

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