Asia Healthcare Analyst, Pathology Associates Limited

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Asia Healthcare Analyst

Pathology Associates Limited

Equity Bottom-Up

Key drivers<ul>
<li>Key pipeline candidate Telomelysin (oncolytic adenovirus for esophageal cancer, melanoma, HCC) reported promising Ph I data. (Expect approval in FY24e and peak sales potential of ¥40-50b)</li>
<li>Potential recovery in the ‘Medical device” business with the launch of improved version of TelomeScan</li>
</ul>Valuation<ul><li>Our explicit revenue projection until 2030e, which includes contribution from TelomeScan and probability adjusted sales from Telomelysin (PoS 35%) yields fair value of ¥ 600 / share (highly sensitive to Telomelysin’s clinical progression).</li></ul>Risk<ul><li>Unexpected positive/negative Telomelysin clinical data</li></ul>

Key drivers
Key pipeline candidate Telomelysin (oncolytic adenovirus for esophageal cancer, melanoma, HCC) reported promising Ph I data. (Expect approval in FY24e and peak sales potential of ¥40-50b)
Potential recovery in the ‘Medical device” business with the launch of improved version of TelomeScan
ValuationOur explicit revenue projection until 2030e, which includes contribution from TelomeScan and probability adjusted sales from Telomelysin (PoS 35%) yields fair value of ¥ 600 / share (highly sensitive to Telomelysin’s clinical progression).RiskUnexpected positive/negative Telomelysin clinical data

Japan

Oncolys BioPharma Inc. provides pharmaceutical and diagnostic products and services.. The Company researches, develops, manufactures and sells drugs targeting cancer and serious infectious diseases and also provides inspection services for viruses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Oncolys Biopharma (4588 JP)

Investment Thesis and Valuation

Key drivers Key pipeline candidate Telomelysin (oncolytic adenovirus for esophageal cancer, melanoma, HCC) reported promising Ph I data. (Expect...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)