Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

<ul><li>Retail stocks are breaking out en masse from technical bottom patterns, marking the reversal of well-established downtrends. This industry-wide move is visible in the Retail ETF, XRT (below). We view this as a buying opportunity.</li><li>From a Group perspective, many of the stronger breakouts/reversals are visible in: Teenage Retailers, Children’s Apparel Retailers, and Auto Dealers.</li><li>We now view retailers as a market weight, and in today’s report we highlight our favorite technical set-ups, including: AEO, ANF, AN, BBY, BIG, BKE, BURL, CATO, CONN, CWH, DG, DLTH, DLTR, EXPR, GPI, GPS, OLLI, PLCE, ROST, and TIF.</li></ul>

Retail stocks are breaking out en masse from technical bottom patterns, marking the reversal of well-established downtrends. This industry-wide move is visible in the Retail ETF, XRT (below). We view this as a buying opportunity.From a Group perspective, many of the stronger breakouts/reversals are visible in: Teenage Retailers, Children’s Apparel Retailers, and Auto Dealers.We now view retailers as a market weight, and in today’s report we highlight our favorite technical set-ups, including: AEO, ANF, AN, BBY, BIG, BKE, BURL, CATO, CONN, CWH, DG, DLTH, DLTR, EXPR, GPI, GPS, OLLI, PLCE, ROST, and TIF.

U.S. Retailers Are Bottoming -- Add Exposure

United States

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates a chain of retail stores that offers brand name products at discounted and closeout prices. The Company provides products, including housewares, food, books and stationery, bed and bath, floor coverings, toys, and hardware.

Ollie'S Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI US)

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Ollie'S Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Retailers Are Bottoming -- Add Exposure

Retail stocks are breaking out en masse from technical bottom patterns, marking the reversal of well-established downtrends. This industry-wide...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)