Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A sharp decline in lumber prices this year suggests potential difficulties in the global housing market but it should also be a positive factor in the pulp &amp; paper industry.</li>
<li>Nine Dragons Paper, Oji Holdings, and Hansol Paper are some of the best Asian pulp &amp; paper plays that could benefit from lower lumber prices in the next several months.</li>
<li>The major drivers of lower lumber prices include higher interest rates and concerns about the global housing sector, mainly in the US with signs of lower home sales.</li>
</ul>


A sharp decline in lumber prices this year suggests potential difficulties in the global housing market but it should also be a positive factor in the pulp &amp; paper industry.
Nine Dragons Paper, Oji Holdings, and Hansol Paper are some of the best Asian pulp &amp; paper plays that could benefit from lower lumber prices in the next several months.
The major drivers of lower lumber prices include higher interest rates and concerns about the global housing sector, mainly in the US with signs of lower home sales.


Decline in Lumber Prices Suggests Looming Difficulties in Housing but a Positive in Pulp & Paper

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

<ul>
<li>Brand recognition is a driver of margins and returns for consumer products, but developing and maintaining product superiority is of paramount importance to establish and sustain brands and market share</li>
<li>In this report, we take  look at how well companies in personal hygiene products like diapers, sanitary pads,  linings, and tampons are positioned from a technological perspective</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/procter-gamble-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:978:1" rel="noopener">Procter &amp; Gamble Co (PG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kimberly-clark-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2292:1" rel="noopener">Kimberly Clark (KMB US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicharm-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6246:1" rel="noopener">Unicharm Corp (8113 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daio-paper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3211:1" rel="noopener">Daio Paper Corp (3880 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao Corp (4452 JP)</a> lead the field</li>
</ul>


Brand recognition is a driver of margins and returns for consumer products, but developing and maintaining product superiority is of paramount importance to establish and sustain brands and market share
In this report, we take  look at how well companies in personal hygiene products like diapers, sanitary pads,  linings, and tampons are positioned from a technological perspective

Procter &amp; Gamble Co (PG US), Kimberly Clark (KMB US) , Unicharm Corp (8113 JP), Daio Paper Corp (3880 JP), and Kao Corp (4452 JP) lead the field


Stock Ideas from Data Mining Technical Publications: A Look at Diapers, Sanitary Pads, and Tampons

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scg-packaging-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28684:1" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)</a> aims to raise around US$1.2bn in its Thailand IPO. It is a part of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-cement-pcl-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2589:1" rel="noopener">Siam Cement (SCC TB)</a> group.SCGP is a packaging solutions provider in ASEAN offering fiber-based packaging, performance and polymer packaging, food service products, design, printing and other solutions. SCGP is the largest packaging paper and corrugated containers producer in ASEAN, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan. SCGP has been steadily increasing its exposure to the packaging segment via acquiring smaller competitors across ASEAN. Its efforts appear to be paying off as EBITDA and PATMI margins bottomed in 2016 and have been improving since. However, its asset growth has been running ahead of earnings growth for most of the prior years. Since its operating cash flows haven’t been enough to cover its capex needs and acquisition expenses in most of the past few years, this has led to a rise in leverage. Furthermore, a look at its recent financials indicate that most of the growth has been owing to its recent Indonesian acquisition.Our previous coverage of the IPO: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-pre-ipo-shift-to-packaging-has-been-aiding-margins-but-acquisition-drove-up-leverage" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging Pre-IPO - Shift to packaging has been aiding margins but acquisitions have driven up leverage</a>

SCG Packaging (SCGP TB) aims to raise around US$1.2bn in its Thailand IPO. It is a part of the Siam Cement (SCC TB) group.SCGP is a packaging solutions provider in ASEAN offering fiber-based packaging, performance and polymer packaging, food service products, design, printing and other solutions. SCGP is the largest packaging paper and corrugated containers producer in ASEAN, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan. SCGP has been steadily increasing its exposure to the packaging segment via acquiring smaller competitors across ASEAN. Its efforts appear to be paying off as EBITDA and PATMI margins bottomed in 2016 and have been improving since. However, its asset growth has been running ahead of earnings growth for most of the prior years. Since its operating cash flows haven’t been enough to cover its capex needs and acquisition expenses in most of the past few years, this has led to a rise in leverage. Furthermore, a look at its recent financials indicate that most of the growth has been owing to its recent Indonesian acquisition.Our previous coverage of the IPO: SCG Packaging Pre-IPO - Shift to packaging has been aiding margins but acquisitions have driven up leverage

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/255/original/2020-06-11_08-36-54.png?1591832240" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139255"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Swimming Naked?</a> Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>- have been excluded from this analysis.

Source: Japan AnalyticsSTRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's Swimming Naked? Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with Nissan Motor (7201 JP) which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)- have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/135/795/original/2020-05-26_06-26-15.png?1590441998" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="135795"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div>In the DETAIL section below, we shall review Monday's announcements:-</div><div><ul>
<li>The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 59 results announcements was 24:5:30. The average change in Results Score was -1.4.</li>
<li>For the 37 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 4:3:20, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -7.9. Only 38% of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. </li>
<li>45 companies will announce results on Monday. The largest of these by market cap will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki (7269 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17841:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha (7951 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isuzu-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14726:1" rel="noopener">Isuzu (7202 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL section below, we shall review Monday's announcements:-
The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 59 results announcements was 24:5:30. The average change in Results Score was -1.4.
For the 37 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 4:3:20, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -7.9. Only 38% of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. 
45 companies will announce results on Monday. The largest of these by market cap will be Suzuki (7269 JP), Yamaha (7951 JP), and Isuzu (7202 JP). 


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 25th May - Ajinomoto, Oji, THK, Fujikura

Japan

Oji Holdings Corp manufactures paper, pulp, and processed paper goods, including news print, carbonless paper, wrapping and packaging paper, and paperboard. The Company also produces sanitary paper goods such as disposable diapers. Oji Paper has forests in Japan and overseas, and operates forestry, timber sales, and real estate businesses.

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Oji Holdings (3861 JP)

Decline in Lumber Prices Suggests Looming Difficulties in Housing but a Positive in Pulp & Paper

A sharp decline in lumber prices this year suggests potential difficulties in the global housing market but it should also be a positive factor in...

Douglas Kim

Stock Ideas from Data Mining Technical Publications: A Look at Diapers, Sanitary Pads, and Tampons

Spotting the innovation leaders in the hygiene aisle of the supermarkets. A look at the diaper, sanitary pads, and tampon makers.

Pyari Menon

SCG Packaging IPO - Unexciting

SCG Packaging (SCGP TB) aims to raise around US$1.2bn in its Thailand IPO. It is a part of the Siam Cement (SCC TB) group, which aims to hold at...

Sumeet Singh

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 25th May - Ajinomoto, Oji, THK, Fujikura

In the DETAIL section below, we shall review Monday's announcements:- The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 59 results announcements...

Campbell Gunn

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