'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

APATHY STRIKES AGAIN<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/686/original/2018-09-23_17-11-57.png?1537690346" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64686"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>THE APATHY INDICATOR - Our Fortnightly Update for 26th August highlighted the lack of market activity after the end of the results announcements over the previous six weeks. In recent years, similar periods of apathy had coincided with market turning points, usually to the upside. After an initial rally the following week, our 'apathy indicator' added another three signals before the market subsequently bottomed out on 7th September. Since then, Total Market Value has risen by 6.7%, TOPIX has had its best week in almost two years, both the 50 and 200-day moving averages were surpassed and, on Friday, the Value Traded Ratio had its fifth-best day of the year. Its 'party-time' here indeed.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/690/original/2018-09-23_17-44-03.png?1537692262" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64690"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>BREAKOUT - Much fanfare was also made over the fact that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22909" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> reached a 26-year high and broke out of nine-month and 22-year trading ranges. Although such positive news is always welcome for us Japan-only 'diehards', both TOPIX and TOPIX-US$ reached new 26-year highs in January, only to later fade away for the next seven months. New highs for both these indices are required to confirm that the December 1989 high is indeed again the target.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/701/original/2018-09-05_19-59-32.png?1537698981" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64701"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>GAIJIN WRONGFOOTED - As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/25" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25">Travis Lundy</a> noted on 2nd September - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-flow-redux-foreign-investor-flows-still-matter-and-they-are-still-cyclical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:23654">Foreign Investor Flows (Still) Matter, and They Are (Still) Cyclical</a>, foreign investor flows have recently been at 'the lower end of the cycle' and foreign investors tend to be pro-cyclical price-takers chasing returns on a net exposure basis driven by the relative performance of the US$TOPIX/S&amp;P 500 ratio. As we also noted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-seasonality-sell-in-july-and-say-goodbye-please-come-back-on-culture-day" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:23682">Japan: Seasonality</a>, historically September is the second-worst performing month in the Japanese market calendar with October being the fourth-worst. Add some concerns over trade and auto tariffs to the mix and a portfolio underweighting of Japan at the start of this quarter was not going to alarm any trustees. Given all of the above and with a holiday this Monday, some sharp short-covering was also in evidence towards to end of last week in anticipation of more leisurely-timed long-only fund flows to come.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/704/original/2018-09-23_20-08-06.png?1537700901" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64704"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>CHEAP + UPSIDE TO FORECASTS - The last two weeks have taken the total market cap (ex REITs) to back above ¥700t, however, the trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PER is still below 15x. In aggregate the current forecasts for current year's Net Income are nearly ¥2t behind the TTM data, leaving scope for some market-boosting upward revisions in November as the (mostly interim) results are announced. Assuming upward revisions bring forecasts in line with our estimate the November TTM aggregate Net Income of ¥50t, the market PE at the January peak capitalisation would still be below 15x.  CAVEATS - Curbing the enthusiasm in the last paragraph are some macro caveats. Industrial production has slowed to nearly zero in recent months, and higher wage income is being mostly channelled into increased savings. For the first time in the post-WWII era, both profit's share and labour's share of GDP exceed 12%. Both cannot continue to rise in tandem indefinitely, and we would expect the former to turn down before the latter. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/705/original/2018-09-23_20-19-16.png?1537701582" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64705"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/707/original/2018-09-23_20-34-21.png?1537702506" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64707"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>OUTLOOK - After a hectic four-day week and another shortened week to come, a pause would be welcome. The 5-day Relative Strength Index at 91 is at its highest level since 8th November 2017 and is in the first percentile of occurrences over the last three years. The 25-day Toraku advance-decline indicator is also nearing '120'. Although this is far from perfect as an indicator, recent peaks and troughs have coincided with Toraku outliers. Two weeks ago, we suggested the market would rise and Yen would fall 'into the month end absent any adverse developments on the trade front'. With newly-re-elected PM Abe in New York this week, we expect another quiet week for the continuing (now sector-specific) Japan-US trade negotiations. Further Yen weakness would limit any short-term profit-taking, and there are still enough global portfolios underweight Japan to buy the coming dip and support rolling our forecast forward until month-end.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our sector recommendations have fared less well over the last two weeks. Our most-preferred marginally out-performed our least-preferred with the gains in Energy and Telecoms offsetting 'losses' from underweights in Utilities, Machinery, Real Estate and Autos and overweights in Information Technology and Other Commercial Products. COMPANIES - Our results, revisions and stock performance reviews below contain short comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11720" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11720:1">Kikkoman (2801 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4102" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4102:1">Nissan Chemical (4021 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1496" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1">Showa Denko (4004 JP)</a>.

APATHY STRIKES AGAINSource: Japan AnalyticsTHE APATHY INDICATOR - Our Fortnightly Update for 26th August highlighted the lack of market activity after the end of the results announcements over the previous six weeks. In recent years, similar periods of apathy had coincided with market turning points, usually to the upside. After an initial rally the following week, our 'apathy indicator' added another three signals before the market subsequently bottomed out on 7th September. Since then, Total Market Value has risen by 6.7%, TOPIX has had its best week in almost two years, both the 50 and 200-day moving averages were surpassed and, on Friday, the Value Traded Ratio had its fifth-best day of the year. Its 'party-time' here indeed.Source: Japan AnalyticsBREAKOUT - Much fanfare was also made over the fact that the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) reached a 26-year high and broke out of nine-month and 22-year trading ranges. Although such positive news is always welcome for us Japan-only 'diehards', both TOPIX and TOPIX-US$ reached new 26-year highs in January, only to later fade away for the next seven months. New highs for both these indices are required to confirm that the December 1989 high is indeed again the target.Source: Japan AnalyticsGAIJIN WRONGFOOTED - As Travis Lundy noted on 2nd September - Foreign Investor Flows (Still) Matter, and They Are (Still) Cyclical, foreign investor flows have recently been at 'the lower end of the cycle' and foreign investors tend to be pro-cyclical price-takers chasing returns on a net exposure basis driven by the relative performance of the US$TOPIX/S&amp;P 500 ratio. As we also noted in Japan: Seasonality, historically September is the second-worst performing month in the Japanese market calendar with October being the fourth-worst. Add some concerns over trade and auto tariffs to the mix and a portfolio underweighting of Japan at the start of this quarter was not going to alarm any trustees. Given all of the above and with a holiday this Monday, some sharp short-covering was also in evidence towards to end of last week in anticipation of more leisurely-timed long-only fund flows to come.Source: Japan AnalyticsCHEAP + UPSIDE TO FORECASTS - The last two weeks have taken the total market cap (ex REITs) to back above ¥700t, however, the trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PER is still below 15x. In aggregate the current forecasts for current year's Net Income are nearly ¥2t behind the TTM data, leaving scope for some market-boosting upward revisions in November as the (mostly interim) results are announced. Assuming upward revisions bring forecasts in line with our estimate the November TTM aggregate Net Income of ¥50t, the market PE at the January peak capitalisation would still be below 15x.  CAVEATS - Curbing the enthusiasm in the last paragraph are some macro caveats. Industrial production has slowed to nearly zero in recent months, and higher wage income is being mostly channelled into increased savings. For the first time in the post-WWII era, both profit's share and labour's share of GDP exceed 12%. Both cannot continue to rise in tandem indefinitely, and we would expect the former to turn down before the latter. Source: Japan AnalyticsOUTLOOK - After a hectic four-day week and another shortened week to come, a pause would be welcome. The 5-day Relative Strength Index at 91 is at its highest level since 8th November 2017 and is in the first percentile of occurrences over the last three years. The 25-day Toraku advance-decline indicator is also nearing '120'. Although this is far from perfect as an indicator, recent peaks and troughs have coincided with Toraku outliers. Two weeks ago, we suggested the market would rise and Yen would fall 'into the month end absent any adverse developments on the trade front'. With newly-re-elected PM Abe in New York this week, we expect another quiet week for the continuing (now sector-specific) Japan-US trade negotiations. Further Yen weakness would limit any short-term profit-taking, and there are still enough global portfolios underweight Japan to buy the coming dip and support rolling our forecast forward until month-end.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our sector recommendations have fared less well over the last two weeks. Our most-preferred marginally out-performed our least-preferred with the gains in Energy and Telecoms offsetting 'losses' from underweights in Utilities, Machinery, Real Estate and Autos and overweights in Information Technology and Other Commercial Products. COMPANIES - Our results, revisions and stock performance reviews below contain short comments on Kikkoman (2801 JP), Nissan Chemical (4021 JP) and Showa Denko (4004 JP).

TURNING POINT - Despite the last four trading days being 'up', the Japanese equity market composite fell by 0.6% over the last two weeks. New 52-week lows outnumbered new highs by 6.7:1 and new lows have exceeded new highs for the last sixteen days. This post-results 'malaise' is most noticeable in the lack of market activity.  Four of the last six trading days have seen the Value Traded/Total Market Value ratio fall below 30 basis points.  Other than at the turn of the year, such levels of trading 'apathy' (marked▲on the chart below) usually coincide with changes in market direction which, in current circumstances would suggest some upside from current levels.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/735/original/2018-08-25_21-33-47.png?1535271873" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61735"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>SECTOR TRENDS - Only seven sectors rose by more than 1% in the last two weeks, led by Commercial Services, Multi-Industry, Media and Information Technology and only eight are up over three months. Overall the market composite has fallen by 2.9% since the end of May.  Twelve sectors have decreased by more than 1% since 10th August with Metals, Telecommunications, Autos and Consumer Services all down by more than 2%. Over both periods, and in all regards, the Energy sector is the outlier and remains attractively priced at below book value and on 8x TTM Net Income. RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS - Only 213 results and revision announcements occurred in the last two weeks, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/109" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1">Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4909" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4909:1">Hikari Tsushin (9435 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14750" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14750:1">Rizap (2928 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24540" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24540:1">SanBio (4592 JP)</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20495" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20495:1">Amuse (4301 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19550" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19550:1">Open House (3288 JP)</a> being the most impactful in terms of changes in scoring.PRICE SCORE &amp; VALUATION - Banks continue to be 'Oversold' and 'Deep Value', while Commercial and Consumer Services are both 'Overbought' and 'Fully Priced'. Information Technology, a preferred sector, is now 'Fully Priced' and is close to being 'Overbought' but we would hold current positions for the time being. OUTLOOK - If the market were to see a rebound, the catalyst could be a weaker currency or a new post-re-election policy platform from PM Abe. Indeed, last week's statement by Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga that mobile phone charges need to fall by 40% suggests a more pro-active and populist third term. In any event, some mean reversion in current sector trends is likely.

TURNING POINT - Despite the last four trading days being 'up', the Japanese equity market composite fell by 0.6% over the last two weeks. New 52-week lows outnumbered new highs by 6.7:1 and new lows have exceeded new highs for the last sixteen days. This post-results 'malaise' is most noticeable in the lack of market activity.  Four of the last six trading days have seen the Value Traded/Total Market Value ratio fall below 30 basis points.  Other than at the turn of the year, such levels of trading 'apathy' (marked▲on the chart below) usually coincide with changes in market direction which, in current circumstances would suggest some upside from current levels.Source: Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TRENDS - Only seven sectors rose by more than 1% in the last two weeks, led by Commercial Services, Multi-Industry, Media and Information Technology and only eight are up over three months. Overall the market composite has fallen by 2.9% since the end of May.  Twelve sectors have decreased by more than 1% since 10th August with Metals, Telecommunications, Autos and Consumer Services all down by more than 2%. Over both periods, and in all regards, the Energy sector is the outlier and remains attractively priced at below book value and on 8x TTM Net Income. RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS - Only 213 results and revision announcements occurred in the last two weeks, with Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP), Hikari Tsushin (9435 JP), Rizap (2928 JP), SanBio (4592 JP) Amuse (4301 JP) and Open House (3288 JP) being the most impactful in terms of changes in scoring.PRICE SCORE &amp; VALUATION - Banks continue to be 'Oversold' and 'Deep Value', while Commercial and Consumer Services are both 'Overbought' and 'Fully Priced'. Information Technology, a preferred sector, is now 'Fully Priced' and is close to being 'Overbought' but we would hold current positions for the time being. OUTLOOK - If the market were to see a rebound, the catalyst could be a weaker currency or a new post-re-election policy platform from PM Abe. Indeed, last week's statement by Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga that mobile phone charges need to fall by 40% suggests a more pro-active and populist third term. In any event, some mean reversion in current sector trends is likely. 

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

The long-awaited launch of the The long-awaited launch of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1">Nissan (7201 JP)</a>Leaf took place on Sept 6th, seven years after the first generation was introduced: On the outside, the Leaf now looks more like a regular, but sleeker hatchback. The most interesting additions are autonomous driving features and connectivity: The Leaf comes with parking assistance, single-lane highway driving, single pedal driving, and vehicle-to-infrastructure technologies. Nissan stressed that this new model is more…

The long-awaited launch of the The long-awaited launch of the Nissan (7201 JP)Leaf took place on Sept 6th, seven years after the first generation was introduced: On the outside, the Leaf now looks more like a regular, but sleeker hatchback. The most interesting additions are autonomous driving features and connectivity: The Leaf comes with parking assistance, single-lane highway driving, single pedal driving, and vehicle-to-infrastructure technologies. Nissan stressed that this new model is more…

Nissan (7201) - Unveils New "Leaf" As EV Theme Gets Motoring

Japan

OHARA INC. manufactures, processes, and sells a variety of optical glasses. The Company's products are used in precision optical devices such as digital cameras and disk scanners.  OHARA also produces and sells glass ceramics for hard disk substrates.

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Ohara Inc (5218 JP)

Japan Fortnightly Update: Celebration

APATHY STRIKES AGAINTHE APATHY INDICATOR - Our Fortnightly Update for 26th August highlighted the lack of market activity after the end of the...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Fortnightly Update: Turning Point

TURNING POINT - Despite the last four trading days being 'up', the Japanese equity market composite fell by 0.6% over the last two weeks. New...

Campbell Gunn

Nissan (7201) - Unveils New "Leaf" As EV Theme Gets Motoring

The long-awaited launch of the The long-awaited launch of the Nissan (7201 JP)Leaf took place on Sept 6th, seven years after the first generation...

Pelham Smithers Associates

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