New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>NZX's investor day provided assurance it is on the right track, with execution of its strategy the key near-term focus.</li><li>In addition, tailwinds for the Market business are appearing as expected — partly cyclical, and partly positive initiatives to remove listing roadblocks.</li><li>We have lifted our target price +10cps (+6%) to NZ$1.70 as we now have enough confidence to ascribe some value to the Wealth Technologies business, albeit modest, with upside dependent on execution, particularly on cost. </li></ul>

NZX's investor day provided assurance it is on the right track, with execution of its strategy the key near-term focus.In addition, tailwinds for the Market business are appearing as expected — partly cyclical, and partly positive initiatives to remove listing roadblocks.We have lifted our target price +10cps (+6%) to NZ$1.70 as we now have enough confidence to ascribe some value to the Wealth Technologies business, albeit modest, with upside dependent on execution, particularly on cost. 

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>NZX has upgraded its FY24 normalised EBITDA guidance range +NZ$4.75m (+11%) at the midpoint, with stronger capital raising activity and trading volumes the key drivers.</li><li>The Funds Management and Wealth Tech businesses are also performing well, growing funds under management (FUM) and funds under administration (FUA) at a steady rate.</li><li>With a higher earnings outlook, we have lifted our target price +5cps (+3.2%) to NZ$1.60. </li></ul></div></div></div></div>

NZX has upgraded its FY24 normalised EBITDA guidance range +NZ$4.75m (+11%) at the midpoint, with stronger capital raising activity and trading volumes the key drivers.The Funds Management and Wealth Tech businesses are also performing well, growing funds under management (FUM) and funds under administration (FUA) at a steady rate.With a higher earnings outlook, we have lifted our target price +5cps (+3.2%) to NZ$1.60. 

NZX Ticking Higher — FY24 Guidance Upgrade

<ul><li>We downgrade our NZX rating to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM, with NZX trading closer to our valuation following a strong July and August 2024 share price performance.</li><li>From here, the Wealth Technology (WT) division needs to accelerate to justify a more positive outlook.</li><li>Whilst WT cash flow breakeven is in sight, it is likely two years away. </li></ul>

We downgrade our NZX rating to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM, with NZX trading closer to our valuation following a strong July and August 2024 share price performance.From here, the Wealth Technology (WT) division needs to accelerate to justify a more positive outlook.Whilst WT cash flow breakeven is in sight, it is likely two years away. 

Nzx - Small Tracking Error — 1H24 Result

<ul><li>NZX’s 1Q24 revenue breakdown displayed some promising themes, with a higher quality slant to the revenue mix against our prior assumptions. </li><li>Smartshares continues to perform strongly, with an expansion in the average fee received versus our expectation of downwards pressure on fees.</li><li>This helped offset ongoing weakness in local capital market activity, which we assume won't materially improve over the remainder of FY24. </li></ul>

NZX’s 1Q24 revenue breakdown displayed some promising themes, with a higher quality slant to the revenue mix against our prior assumptions. Smartshares continues to perform strongly, with an expansion in the average fee received versus our expectation of downwards pressure on fees.This helped offset ongoing weakness in local capital market activity, which we assume won't materially improve over the remainder of FY24. 

Nzx - Sticking to the Index - 1Q24 Revenue

<ul><li>NZX's FY23 result underscored the value of its diverse revenue streams, with earnings coming in at the top end of its guidance range despite falling short on the majority of its operating targets.</li><li>First time FY24 earnings guidance appears conservative, especially if NZX is able to execute on its revised targets.</li><li>NZX remains well placed to benefit from a recovery in market activity levels, aided by the potential for meaningful earnings growth in Funds Management and Wealth Technologies. </li></ul>

NZX's FY23 result underscored the value of its diverse revenue streams, with earnings coming in at the top end of its guidance range despite falling short on the majority of its operating targets.First time FY24 earnings guidance appears conservative, especially if NZX is able to execute on its revised targets.NZX remains well placed to benefit from a recovery in market activity levels, aided by the potential for meaningful earnings growth in Funds Management and Wealth Technologies. 

Nzx - FY23 Result — Controlling the Controllables

New Zealand

NZX Ltd. operates the New Zealand Stock Exchange, the country's primary national stock exchange.  NZX provides markets that facilitate the raising of capital and the trading of corporate securities and operates markets for equities, corporate and government bonds, fixed income securities and alternative equity investments.

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NZX (NZX NZ)

Nzx - Par for the Course at the Bourse

n addition, tailwinds for the Market business are appearing as expected — partly cyclical, and partly positive initiatives to remove listing...

Forsyth Barr

NZX Ticking Higher — FY24 Guidance Upgrade

NZX has upgraded its FY24 normalised EBITDA guidance range +NZ$4.75m (+11%) at the midpoint, with stronger capital raising activity and trading...

Forsyth Barr

Nzx - Small Tracking Error — 1H24 Result

We downgrade our NZX rating to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM, with NZX trading closer to our valuation following a strong July and August 2024 share...

Forsyth Barr

Nzx - Sticking to the Index - 1Q24 Revenue

NZX’s 1Q24 revenue breakdown displayed some promising themes, with a higher quality slant to the revenue mix against our prior...

Forsyth Barr

Nzx - FY23 Result — Controlling the Controllables

NZX's FY23 result underscored the value of its diverse revenue streams, with earnings coming in at the top end of its guidance range despite...

Forsyth Barr

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Market Cap (USDm)

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