Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a>  posted results for Q4 ahead of Redex / consensus expectations with FY21 guidance that is better than our forecasts but worse than consensus. Importantly, the company is targeting flat operating income YoY despite meaningful mobile price reductions as profit growth from Enterprise sales, Distribution, and Internet offset consumer erosion. The only disappointment in the results may be an unchanged dividend and whilst the company did not close the door on increases later in the year, there was not much enthusiasm either. Still, with results and guidance that are largely better than our expectations, we remain at Buy.

Softbank Corp (9434 JP)  posted results for Q4 ahead of Redex / consensus expectations with FY21 guidance that is better than our forecasts but worse than consensus. Importantly, the company is targeting flat operating income YoY despite meaningful mobile price reductions as profit growth from Enterprise sales, Distribution, and Internet offset consumer erosion. The only disappointment in the results may be an unchanged dividend and whilst the company did not close the door on increases later in the year, there was not much enthusiasm either. Still, with results and guidance that are largely better than our expectations, we remain at Buy. 

Softbank Corp Q4 20 Results/FY21 Guidance – Holding the Line on Mobile Pricing Changes

Sky Perfect JSAT operates Japan’s only direct-to-home (DTH) video service and is Asia’s largest satellite operator. As a well-known consumer-facing service, the former is better known and has often driven sentiment but the key to unlock value may be in the latter as the space industry expands. An increase in space industry investment brings new opportunities but also heightened competition from low-earth satellite fleets albeit at less intensity than its global peers. On balance, we think the changes are positive and we initiate coverage at Buy with a ¥640 FY21-end target price.

Sky Perfect JSAT operates Japan’s only direct-to-home (DTH) video service and is Asia’s largest satellite operator. As a well-known consumer-facing service, the former is better known and has often driven sentiment but the key to unlock value may be in the latter as the space industry expands. An increase in space industry investment brings new opportunities but also heightened competition from low-earth satellite fleets albeit at less intensity than its global peers. On balance, we think the changes are positive and we initiate coverage at Buy with a ¥640 FY21-end target price.

Sky Perfect JSAT - Upside Potential in Space Business (Initiation of Coverage)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Equity Bottom-Up

It is mid-late April. That means it is time for my annual NTT Earnings Could Surprise To The Upside Because the Street Is Too Slack insight.Just over 6 months ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> announced a deal to take <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-docomo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1" rel="noopener">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a> private, spending nearly US$40bn to buy out minorities. I thought they paid too much for it, but given the purchase was entirely funded by debt, and they bought the remainder of NTT DoCoMo at a 5% earnings yield and a 6+% cashflow yield, and borrowed money at less than 1%, this is a pretty "easy" thing to accept as a shareholder but for whatever reason, NTT shares dipped after the purchase. Perhaps some thought there would be an equity offering but investors had to know that was nigh impossible as the NTT Law requires the government to hold one third of the shares and there is no way that the government was going to pony up to buy more NTT shares.But investors and Street analysts seemed to have ignored the major effect of the purchase. And we discussed that at the time. That meant an additional ¥200bn in annual net income to NTT shareholders. Six months later, the Street has almost caught up. Now what?

It is mid-late April. That means it is time for my annual NTT Earnings Could Surprise To The Upside Because the Street Is Too Slack insight.Just over 6 months ago, NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) announced a deal to take NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) private, spending nearly US$40bn to buy out minorities. I thought they paid too much for it, but given the purchase was entirely funded by debt, and they bought the remainder of NTT DoCoMo at a 5% earnings yield and a 6+% cashflow yield, and borrowed money at less than 1%, this is a pretty "easy" thing to accept as a shareholder but for whatever reason, NTT shares dipped after the purchase. Perhaps some thought there would be an equity offering but investors had to know that was nigh impossible as the NTT Law requires the government to hold one third of the shares and there is no way that the government was going to pony up to buy more NTT shares.But investors and Street analysts seemed to have ignored the major effect of the purchase. And we discussed that at the time. That meant an additional ¥200bn in annual net income to NTT shareholders. Six months later, the Street has almost caught up. Now what?

NTT 2022 Consensus Has *almost* Caught Up To Pro-Forma - But It's Still Probably Low

Event-Driven

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

Every year for the past few I publish a Japan Dividend Trade notice.
This year my comments are a little different. 
And it has to do with the rebalance after the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-docomo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1" rel="noopener">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a> tender offer and the general situation (waves hands vaguely at worst selloff in bond indices in years).

Every year for the past few I publish a Japan Dividend Trade notice.
This year my comments are a little different. 
And it has to do with the rebalance after the NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) tender offer and the general situation (waves hands vaguely at worst selloff in bond indices in years).

2021 JAPAN DELTA:  This Year's Div Trade Not Like Last Year's Div Trade

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a> were a retailer, the CtoC platform would now be Japan’s 5th biggest vendor of apparel, symbolic of just how influential it has become and the significant role of used fashions in the wider market.
And it is not just fashion. Mercari is now handling all manner of household goods, even food. It is also increasingly influencing the sale of new goods thanks to new services for major retailers in data flow and marketing.
So big is its influence, even the Tax Office now has a Mercari department.
Not surprisingly, Mercari's success is attracting more competitors. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a> launched PayPay Flea Market just over a year ago and is now doing what it does best: slashing fees and piling on incentives to try and grab share from the market leader.

If Mercari Inc (4385 JP) were a retailer, the CtoC platform would now be Japan’s 5th biggest vendor of apparel, symbolic of just how influential it has become and the significant role of used fashions in the wider market.
And it is not just fashion. Mercari is now handling all manner of household goods, even food. It is also increasingly influencing the sale of new goods thanks to new services for major retailers in data flow and marketing.
So big is its influence, even the Tax Office now has a Mercari department.
Not surprisingly, Mercari's success is attracting more competitors. Z Holdings (4689 JP) launched PayPay Flea Market just over a year ago and is now doing what it does best: slashing fees and piling on incentives to try and grab share from the market leader.

Mercari’s Relentless Innovation Opens Closets

Japan

NTT DOCOMO, INC. provides various types of telecommunication services including cellular phones, satellite mobile communication, and wireless LAN Network. The Company also sells cellular phones, and other equipment.

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NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)

Softbank Corp Q4 20 Results/FY21 Guidance – Holding the Line on Mobile Pricing Changes

Softbank Corp says it will maintain profitability despite regulatory-driven mobile price cuts. The dividend will also be unchanged although...

Kirk Boodry

Sky Perfect JSAT - Upside Potential in Space Business (Initiation of Coverage)

Sky Perfect JSAT is better known for its direct broadcast satellite (DBS) video business but the space business represents more value and has been...

Kirk Boodry

NTT 2022 Consensus Has almost Caught Up To Pro-Forma - But It's Still Probably Low

NTT Street Consensus for FY21-23 should have had a jump shift at the end of September last year. It did not. It slowly drifted higher. I expect a...

Travis Lundy

2021 JAPAN DELTA: This Year's Div Trade Not Like Last Year's Div Trade

Japan's Annual Dividend Trade is big, and this year, despite some economic weakness since last year, it is still quite bigly. But there may be...

Travis Lundy

Mercari’s Relentless Innovation Opens Closets

Mercari now dominates CtoC trading in Japan and is so big a Tax Office department is names after it. Competitors are circling, particularly Z...

Michael Causton

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