Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>Australia's largest non-alcoholic beverage bottler <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-amatil-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:675:1" rel="noopener">Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU)</a> has announced an indicative proposal from Coca-Cola European Partners plc (CCEP)  for:</p>
<ul>
<li>the acquisition of all the issued shares held by independent shareholders of CCL by way of a Scheme of Arrangement (for $12.75/shares, cash, less any final 2H20 dividends declared and paid prior to the implementation of any Scheme); and</li>
<li>a separate acquisition of CCL shares held indirectly by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-co-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:979:1" rel="noopener">Coca Cola Co (KO US)</a> (TCCC) - 30.807% of shares out - which would be on terms less favourable than the terms offered to CCL’s independent shareholders.</li>
</ul>
<p>A$12.75/share is a 25%/38% premium to the one-month/three-month VWAP. The offer backs out a 12.0x/14.3x FY19/FY20E EV/EBITDA, both exceeding the median for peers.</p>
<p>Optically, the offer price is a multi-year high, excluding a handful of days in February this year when shares traded above the indicated terms shortly after the announcement of CCL's FY19 results.</p>
<p>This is a non-binding proposal, subject to due diligence. Australia has a reputation as an indicative proposal graveyard. This should not be the case here - this is a company well known to the bidder.</p>
<p>Currently trading at a 3.4/10.2% gross/annualised spread, assuming around four-months to compete.</p>
<p>This transaction looks decidedly fizzy.</p>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>

Australia's largest non-alcoholic beverage bottler Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) has announced an indicative proposal from Coca-Cola European Partners plc (CCEP)  for:

the acquisition of all the issued shares held by independent shareholders of CCL by way of a Scheme of Arrangement (for $12.75/shares, cash, less any final 2H20 dividends declared and paid prior to the implementation of any Scheme); and
a separate acquisition of CCL shares held indirectly by Coca Cola Co (KO US) (TCCC) - 30.807% of shares out - which would be on terms less favourable than the terms offered to CCL’s independent shareholders.

A$12.75/share is a 25%/38% premium to the one-month/three-month VWAP. The offer backs out a 12.0x/14.3x FY19/FY20E EV/EBITDA, both exceeding the median for peers.
Optically, the offer price is a multi-year high, excluding a handful of days in February this year when shares traded above the indicated terms shortly after the announcement of CCL's FY19 results.
This is a non-binding proposal, subject to due diligence. Australia has a reputation as an indicative proposal graveyard. This should not be the case here - this is a company well known to the bidder.
Currently trading at a 3.4/10.2% gross/annualised spread, assuming around four-months to compete.
This transaction looks decidedly fizzy.
As always, more below the fold.

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2><ul>
<li>The world’s major growth story </li>
<li>Not a bad year after all? China mints billionaires</li>
<li>About that $120 billion…</li>
<li>Free money! In your e-wallet!</li>
<li>Spats from here to space</li>
</ul><div class="content-remarks"><p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p></div>

China News That Matters
The world’s major growth story 
Not a bad year after all? China mints billionaires
About that $120 billion…
Free money! In your e-wallet!
Spats from here to space
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.

Economy/ Billionaires/ P2P Crackdown/ Digital Yuan/ US-China

China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> September ADT (Average Daily Turnover) remain strong. This in in contrast to usual weak seasonality in trading activities into Q4. For the first 9 months this year, HKEx ADT has reaccelerated the year-over-year growth rate to 38.9% , fueled by  IPO listings and investors' sanguine view on China. </li>
<li>HKEx had a busy month for the IPO market with 9 new listings in September. The most noticeable IPOs are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings Inc (9987 HK),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ming-yuan-cloud-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29268:1" rel="noopener">Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joy-spreader-interactive-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29271:1" rel="noopener">Joy Spreader Interactive Technology (6988 HK).</a> We expect mega IPO and Chinese ADR homecoming to reshape the landscape of Hong Kong capital market. And Ant Group has just won approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for its blockbuster initial public offering in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Derivative volumes improved 19% quarter-over-quarter in 3Q, on the back of Heng Seng Index and China Enterprises Index futures. We expect volume will be boosted by MSCI suite of products and reach critical mass in the next 12 months. A-share futures should be the most important driver of HKEx derivative volume. We estimate that MSCI China A-share future could contribute additional 6% revenue for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> after its launch. We remain bullish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> and reiterate TP of HKD 400. </li>
</ul>



HKEX (388 HK) September ADT (Average Daily Turnover) remain strong. This in in contrast to usual weak seasonality in trading activities into Q4. For the first 9 months this year, HKEx ADT has reaccelerated the year-over-year growth rate to 38.9% , fueled by  IPO listings and investors' sanguine view on China. 
HKEx had a busy month for the IPO market with 9 new listings in September. The most noticeable IPOs are Nongfu Spring (9633 HK), Yum China Holdings Inc (9987 HK),Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK), and Joy Spreader Interactive Technology (6988 HK). We expect mega IPO and Chinese ADR homecoming to reshape the landscape of Hong Kong capital market. And Ant Group has just won approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for its blockbuster initial public offering in Hong Kong.
Derivative volumes improved 19% quarter-over-quarter in 3Q, on the back of Heng Seng Index and China Enterprises Index futures. We expect volume will be boosted by MSCI suite of products and reach critical mass in the next 12 months. A-share futures should be the most important driver of HKEx derivative volume. We estimate that MSCI China A-share future could contribute additional 6% revenue for HKEX (388 HK) after its launch. We remain bullish on HKEX (388 HK) and reiterate TP of HKD 400. 


HKEx (388.HK): September Trading Volume Indicated Strong Activities Trend into Q4

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Ming Yuan Cloud Group / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ming-yuan-cloud-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29268:1" rel="noopener">Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK)</a> (MYCG) raised US$796m at HK$16.50 per share, at the top-end of its IPO price range.</p>
<p>MYCG is a software solution provider in China with a focus on real estate. The company provides enterprise resource planning (ERP) solutions and SaaS products to property developers and other industry participants in the real estate value chain in China. As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the company is ranked first among software providers for property developers in China and has a dominant 24.6% market share in terms of contract value in 2019.</p>
<p>In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and provide a table with implied valuation at different share price levels.</p>
<p>Our previous coverage of the IPO:</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li dir="ltr">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ming-yuan-cloud-pre-ipo-leaning-on-regional-partners-for-growth-but-hefty-commissions-paid" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42977" rel="noopener">Ming Yuan Cloud (明源云) Pre-IPO - Leaning on Regional Partners for Growth but Hefty Commissions Paid</a> </p>
</li>
<li dir="ltr">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ming-yuan-cloud-ipo-better-disclosure-and-a-leader-in-the-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43229" rel="noopener">Ming Yuan Cloud (明源云) IPO - Better Disclosure and a Leader in the Industry</a> </li>
</ul>
</div>


Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK) (MYCG) raised US$796m at HK$16.50 per share, at the top-end of its IPO price range.
MYCG is a software solution provider in China with a focus on real estate. The company provides enterprise resource planning (ERP) solutions and SaaS products to property developers and other industry participants in the real estate value chain in China. As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the company is ranked first among software providers for property developers in China and has a dominant 24.6% market share in terms of contract value in 2019.
In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics and provide a table with implied valuation at different share price levels.
Our previous coverage of the IPO:




Ming Yuan Cloud (明源云) Pre-IPO - Leaning on Regional Partners for Growth but Hefty Commissions Paid 


Ming Yuan Cloud (明源云) IPO - Better Disclosure and a Leader in the Industry 



Ming Yuan Cloud (明源云) Trading - Max Clawback Triggered but Still Decent Amount Left for Insti

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<p>In this insight, we make the case of why Orion Corp should list its shares in the HK Stock Exchange. We also compare the steep valuations of Orion Corp versus the recently listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a> and other major F&amp;B stocks in China.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>There are three major reasons why the company should its shares in the HK Stock Exchange:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>First,</strong> a listing of the Orion Corp shares would raise the visibility of Orion Corp much more among both the institutional and retail investors that closely follow the Chinese stock markets.</li>
<li>
<strong>Second, </strong>because nearly two-thirds of the company's revenues and operating profit are generated in China, Vietnam, and Russia right now, one could make a strong case of why the company should be listed on the HK Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>
<strong>Third,</strong> there has been a great demand for high quality, China-related F&amp;B stocks as evidenced by the recent smashing IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>
</div>

In this insight, we make the case of why Orion Corp should list its shares in the HK Stock Exchange. We also compare the steep valuations of Orion Corp versus the recently listed Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) and other major F&amp;B stocks in China.

There are three major reasons why the company should its shares in the HK Stock Exchange:


First, a listing of the Orion Corp shares would raise the visibility of Orion Corp much more among both the institutional and retail investors that closely follow the Chinese stock markets.

Second, because nearly two-thirds of the company's revenues and operating profit are generated in China, Vietnam, and Russia right now, one could make a strong case of why the company should be listed on the HK Stock Exchange.

Third, there has been a great demand for high quality, China-related F&amp;B stocks as evidenced by the recent smashing IPO of Nongfu Spring (9633 HK). 



Orion Corp - Time To List Its Shares In HK Stock Exchange? & A Comparison to Nongfu Spring

China

Nongfu Spring Co. Ltd. supplies soft drinks. The Company develops, produces, and sells bottled mineral water, fruit juice, sports drinks, and tea drinks. Nongfu Spring also offers barreled mineral water door-to-door services.

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Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)

Coca Cola Amatil: Flat Or Fizzy?

Coca-Cola European Partners, the world’s largest Coca-Cola bottler by revenue, tables a clean take-private proposal for Coca Cola Amatil.

David Blennerhassett

Economy/ Billionaires/ P2P Crackdown/ Digital Yuan/ US-China

I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the...

Diana Choyleva

HKEx (388.HK): September Trading Volume Indicated Strong Activities Trend into Q4

We expect Hong Kong Exchange has strong trading activities in Q4, in contrast to usual weak seasonality. Now is a better time to go long on HKEx...

Roger Xie

Ming Yuan Cloud (明源云) Trading - Max Clawback Triggered but Still Decent Amount Left for Insti

Our previous coverage of the IPO: Ming Yuan Cloud (明源云) Pre-IPO - Leaning on Regional Partners for Growth but Hefty Commissions Paid Ming...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Orion Corp - Time To List Its Shares In HK Stock Exchange? & A Comparison to Nongfu Spring

A listing of the Orion Corp shares would raise the visibility of Orion Corp much more among both the institutional and retail investors that...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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