Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<p>"Social" has been a third-wheel ESG pillar for a long time. Not that it matters any less, and there is plenty of evidence that strong Social-pillar ESG performance can do a lot of  good for a stock price. Rather, it's that the Social pillar stuff is more ethereal, harder to wrap one's head around. And, let's face it, the Social ESG pillar is a little more rosewater than crude oil.</p><p>It is amazing how a global pandemic changes things. Whether it is ESG's social or Corporate Social Responsibility's (CSR) "social," socially-responsibility – as well as social irresponsibility or inaction – by corporations are front-and-center. In prior reports I assessed corporate coronavirus responses from an ESG perspective. In doing so, I something became increasingly (and painfully) obvious:</p><p>Company responses are <em>very</em> diverse (as they should be), making comparative analysis difficult.</p><p>For society, comparisons aren't necessarily relevant. A patient receiving better medical care due to a generous contribution from Company A probably doesn't care that Company B – same sector but the other side of the world – gave a larger contribution to its local hospital. For investors, however, comparisons kind of matter. After all, what's the value of a stand-alone P/E multiple?</p><p>Rather than go insane trying to standardise and normalise everything – e.g., the economic value of donated masks or cost of retrofitting manufacturing lines to produce ventilators – I decided to look at coronavirus-related corporate philanthropy as a comparative metric. It is universal, quantifiable, and decidedly much easier to measure and value than, say, vats of hand sanitiser.</p><p>This takes a data-driven look at coronavirus-related corporate social responsibility and specifically  philanthropy by listed companies in Asia Pacific countries. APAC first because Asian companies are doing a lot of giving, and nearly all of that inspirational cross-border humanitarian aid – including to the U.S., despite a certain orange-haired xenophobe in a white house.</p>

"Social" has been a third-wheel ESG pillar for a long time. Not that it matters any less, and there is plenty of evidence that strong Social-pillar ESG performance can do a lot of  good for a stock price. Rather, it's that the Social pillar stuff is more ethereal, harder to wrap one's head around. And, let's face it, the Social ESG pillar is a little more rosewater than crude oil.It is amazing how a global pandemic changes things. Whether it is ESG's social or Corporate Social Responsibility's (CSR) "social," socially-responsibility – as well as social irresponsibility or inaction – by corporations are front-and-center. In prior reports I assessed corporate coronavirus responses from an ESG perspective. In doing so, I something became increasingly (and painfully) obvious:Company responses are very diverse (as they should be), making comparative analysis difficult.For society, comparisons aren't necessarily relevant. A patient receiving better medical care due to a generous contribution from Company A probably doesn't care that Company B – same sector but the other side of the world – gave a larger contribution to its local hospital. For investors, however, comparisons kind of matter. After all, what's the value of a stand-alone P/E multiple?Rather than go insane trying to standardise and normalise everything – e.g., the economic value of donated masks or cost of retrofitting manufacturing lines to produce ventilators – I decided to look at coronavirus-related corporate philanthropy as a comparative metric. It is universal, quantifiable, and decidedly much easier to measure and value than, say, vats of hand sanitiser.This takes a data-driven look at coronavirus-related corporate social responsibility and specifically  philanthropy by listed companies in Asia Pacific countries. APAC first because Asian companies are doing a lot of giving, and nearly all of that inspirational cross-border humanitarian aid – including to the U.S., despite a certain orange-haired xenophobe in a white house.

COVID-19 and ESG: Tencent, Alibaba Lead in Coronavirus Aid for Asia Pacific Region

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/136/651/original/2020-05-29_06-37-52.png?1590701909" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="136651"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>LIMPING HOME</strong> - 42 companies reported results on Thursday of which 32 were for the full-year. Of these, 38% made FY2021 forecasts of which only three scored positively. Seventy more companies will announce today, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:356:1" rel="noopener">Olympus Corp (7733 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)</a>, leaving only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> from the 'trillion yen club' for next week. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsLIMPING HOME - 42 companies reported results on Thursday of which 32 were for the full-year. Of these, 38% made FY2021 forecasts of which only three scored positively. Seventy more companies will announce today, including Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP), Olympus Corp (7733 JP), and Yamaha Motor (7272 JP), leaving only Toshiba (6502 JP) from the 'trillion yen club' for next week. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th May - Nissan, Nikon & Toray

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Following the unveiling of the Leader-Follower strategy for the Alliance, Nissan reported FY03/20 results today with OP undershooting its +¥85.0bn target to hit -¥40.5bn and a further ¥603bn in restructuring expenses being booked on top of that. While the numbers were poor, they were expectedly poor and if anything, the large restructuring charge simply makes it easier to put up more respectable numbers next FY. The financial condition was also concern but FCF turned positive on a quarterly basis and the company took pains to repeatedly tress that it had ample liquidity.</p>

Following the unveiling of the Leader-Follower strategy for the Alliance, Nissan reported FY03/20 results today with OP undershooting its +¥85.0bn target to hit -¥40.5bn and a further ¥603bn in restructuring expenses being booked on top of that. While the numbers were poor, they were expectedly poor and if anything, the large restructuring charge simply makes it easier to put up more respectable numbers next FY. The financial condition was also concern but FCF turned positive on a quarterly basis and the company took pains to repeatedly tress that it had ample liquidity.

Nissan – Leader Following Into 20% Capacity Cuts

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/136/350/original/2020-05-28_06-43-04.png?1590615802" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="136350"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>ALL GOOD</strong> - Japan has had a 'good' COVID-19 relative to many countries. With a little help from the Bank of Japan, Japanese equities are only 11% below the December peak, despite a ten-year low in corporate earnings and the prospect of much worse in that regard in the coming months. Companies have retained staff, and consumer confidence has fallen less than in other developed economies. Production lines were not shut down, resulting in a GFC-like spike in the inventory ratio. The stable Yen will make it harder for exporters to the developing world to clear the stockpiles. Accordingly, the alphabetic 'shape' of Japan's post-COVID recovery will between "V" and "L" and will be more prolonged.</p><p><strong>SLIM TAILS</strong> - We are now in the slim tail of the earnings 'season' with only seven larger caps reporting yesterday of which just two made forecasts for the current year.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/136/353/original/2020-05-28_07-10-35.png?1590617452" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="136353"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>INTERNAL DEFICIENCIES -</strong> Another 42 companies will announce results today. The largest of these by market cap will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka (4578 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan (7201 JP)</a> (finally), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toray-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:625:1" rel="noopener">Toray (3402 JP)</a>.  Of the companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥1 trillion, only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:356:1" rel="noopener">Olympus (7733 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi (6501 JP)</a> remain after which this series of Insights will be brought to close. That these three companies required an extra month to prepare their accounts suggests severe deficiencies in the internal reporting structures of these companies.</p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsALL GOOD - Japan has had a 'good' COVID-19 relative to many countries. With a little help from the Bank of Japan, Japanese equities are only 11% below the December peak, despite a ten-year low in corporate earnings and the prospect of much worse in that regard in the coming months. Companies have retained staff, and consumer confidence has fallen less than in other developed economies. Production lines were not shut down, resulting in a GFC-like spike in the inventory ratio. The stable Yen will make it harder for exporters to the developing world to clear the stockpiles. Accordingly, the alphabetic 'shape' of Japan's post-COVID recovery will between "V" and "L" and will be more prolonged.SLIM TAILS - We are now in the slim tail of the earnings 'season' with only seven larger caps reporting yesterday of which just two made forecasts for the current year.Source • Japan AnalyticsINTERNAL DEFICIENCIES - Another 42 companies will announce results today. The largest of these by market cap will be Otsuka (4578 JP), Nissan (7201 JP) (finally), and Toray (3402 JP).  Of the companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥1 trillion, only Olympus (7733 JP), Toshiba (6502 JP), and Hitachi (6501 JP) remain after which this series of Insights will be brought to close. That these three companies required an extra month to prepare their accounts suggests severe deficiencies in the internal reporting structures of these companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 27th May - Recruit, DNP & Dentsu

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/135/544/original/2020-05-25_05-06-24.png?1590350813" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="135544"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
</div><p><strong>CLOSURE</strong> - As the fashion amongst Japanese companies is not to make any full-year forecasts, there has been little change in our forecast-based metrics over the last week. Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) profits declined by ¥3 trillion and ¥2.5 trillion at the operating and net levels, respectively, over the week - closing the 'gap' to forecast considerably. There is still some upside to the market multiple from the numerator. For the time being, however, liquidity rules.</p><div><p>In the <strong>DETAIL </strong>section below, we shall review Friday's announcements:-</p></div><div><ul>
<li>The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 106 results announcements was 52:4:50. The average change in Results Score was -1.2.</li>
<li>For the 49 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 10:1:38, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -10.0. Again, only one-third of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. </li>
<li>As this highly-unusual disclosure period slowly winds down (7% of market cap has yet to report almost two months after books closed), 57 companies will announce results on Monday. The largest of these by market cap will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ajinomoto-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8911:1" rel="noopener">Ajinomoto (2802 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi (6501 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimizu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8530:1" rel="noopener">Shimizu (1803 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> will, hopefully, follow later in the week but may well be the 'sting in the trail'. </li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
CLOSURE - As the fashion amongst Japanese companies is not to make any full-year forecasts, there has been little change in our forecast-based metrics over the last week. Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) profits declined by ¥3 trillion and ¥2.5 trillion at the operating and net levels, respectively, over the week - closing the 'gap' to forecast considerably. There is still some upside to the market multiple from the numerator. For the time being, however, liquidity rules.In the DETAIL section below, we shall review Friday's announcements:-
The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 106 results announcements was 52:4:50. The average change in Results Score was -1.2.
For the 49 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 10:1:38, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -10.0. Again, only one-third of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. 
As this highly-unusual disclosure period slowly winds down (7% of market cap has yet to report almost two months after books closed), 57 companies will announce results on Monday. The largest of these by market cap will be Ajinomoto (2802 JP), Hitachi (6501 JP), and Shimizu (1803 JP). Nissan Motor (7201 JP) and Toshiba (6502 JP) will, hopefully, follow later in the week but may well be the 'sting in the trail'. 


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 22nd May - FUJIFILM, ASICS, Benesse

Japan

NISSAN MOTOR CO., LTD. manufactures and distributes automobiles and related parts. It also provides financing services. Nissan delivers a comprehensive range of products under various brands. The Company manufactures in Japan, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and many other countries.

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Nissan Motor (7201 JP)

COVID-19 and ESG: Tencent, Alibaba Lead in Coronavirus Aid for Asia Pacific Region

"Social" has been a third-wheel ESG pillar for a long time. Not that it matters any less, and there is plenty of evidence that strong Social-pillar...

Kyle Rudden

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th May - Nissan, Nikon & Toray

LIMPING HOME - 42 companies reported results on Thursday of which 32 were for the full-year. Of these, 38% made FY2021 forecasts of which only...

Campbell Gunn

Nissan – Leader Following Into 20% Capacity Cuts

Following the unveiling of the Leader-Follower strategy for the Alliance, Nissan reported FY03/20 results today with OP undershooting its +¥85.0bn...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 27th May - Recruit, DNP & Dentsu

ALL GOOD - Japan has had a 'good' COVID-19 relative to many countries. With a little help from the Bank of Japan, Japanese equities are only 11%...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 22nd May - FUJIFILM, ASICS, Benesse

CLOSURE - As the fashion amongst Japanese companies is not to make any full-year forecasts, there has been little change in our forecast-based...

Campbell Gunn

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