Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Maersk's Q1 earnings were solid, despite plummeting container rates and volumes. Annualizing Q1 Net Income would give RoE of about 17%, which is a healthy level, in our view. </li>
<li>Q1 EBITDA of US$4 bn is equivalent to 36% to 50% of full-year guidance, which remains unchanged. Maersk indicated Q1 will likely be its most profitable quarter in 2023.</li>
<li>Maersk's result reinforces our view that container rates are bottoming. A related takeaway is that a slowing goods inflation rate could lose a tailwind it's enjoyed since last October.</li>
</ul>


Maersk's Q1 earnings were solid, despite plummeting container rates and volumes. Annualizing Q1 Net Income would give RoE of about 17%, which is a healthy level, in our view. 
Q1 EBITDA of US$4 bn is equivalent to 36% to 50% of full-year guidance, which remains unchanged. Maersk indicated Q1 will likely be its most profitable quarter in 2023.
Maersk's result reinforces our view that container rates are bottoming. A related takeaway is that a slowing goods inflation rate could lose a tailwind it's enjoyed since last October.


Maersk Q1: Earnings Fine | Guidance Intact | Takeaways for Container Shipping (And Inflation)

<ul>
<li>Our measures of momentum and profitability suggest industry bottomed in Q1 2023</li>
<li>In addition, shares of container shipping stocks have stopped reacting to (plentiful) bad news</li>
<li>Outcome of ongoing rate negotiations and Q1 earnings calls will drive near-term performance</li>
</ul>


Our measures of momentum and profitability suggest industry bottomed in Q1 2023
In addition, shares of container shipping stocks have stopped reacting to (plentiful) bad news
Outcome of ongoing rate negotiations and Q1 earnings calls will drive near-term performance


TRACKING TRAFFIC/Container Shipping: Momentum Bottomed | Shares Stabilized | Focus on May News

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX  up +0.8%WoW but slipped -0.2% Friday as Hawkish Waller came out amid weak US March Retail Sales data;  Musk jump's into Generative AI; Boeing Production Woes</li>
<li>JAPAN.NKY Futs flat vs Cash USDJPY 133.8; Security Concerns ahead of by-elections as PM Kishida smoke Bombed;  Panasonic to build 3rd US batt plant; JT ramps up heated stick products</li>
<li>NUGGET. Elon Musk's aggressive push into Generative AI to rival/beat ChatGPT; A boon for NDVIDIA and by extension, Japan's Advantest(6857)</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX  up +0.8%WoW but slipped -0.2% Friday as Hawkish Waller came out amid weak US March Retail Sales data;  Musk jump's into Generative AI; Boeing Production Woes
JAPAN.NKY Futs flat vs Cash USDJPY 133.8; Security Concerns ahead of by-elections as PM Kishida smoke Bombed;  Panasonic to build 3rd US batt plant; JT ramps up heated stick products
NUGGET. Elon Musk's aggressive push into Generative AI to rival/beat ChatGPT; A boon for NDVIDIA and by extension, Japan's Advantest(6857)


Good Morning Japan| Recession Fears Spook Equities;NUGGET- Musk Jumps in AI Race, Boon for Advantest

<ul>
<li>Mitsui OSK is up 460% since June 2020. Almost gravity defying. Strong Container profits have lead to high dividends. Now Shareholders hang on for one more big payoff</li>
<li>Container rates have just about to reverted to pre-pandemic levels. Utilization is falling; Capacity coming on; Customers using spot. All points to potential losses next year for  Containers and ONE</li>
<li>We expect a major profit decline=&gt;div cut; How far could share price fall ? See the share price vs Shanghai Container Index correlation below.  We are bearish Mitsui OSK. </li>
</ul>


Mitsui OSK is up 460% since June 2020. Almost gravity defying. Strong Container profits have lead to high dividends. Now Shareholders hang on for one more big payoff
Container rates have just about to reverted to pre-pandemic levels. Utilization is falling; Capacity coming on; Customers using spot. All points to potential losses next year for  Containers and ONE
We expect a major profit decline=&gt;div cut; How far could share price fall ? See the share price vs Shanghai Container Index correlation below.  We are bearish Mitsui OSK. 


Mitsui OSK(9104): Ex-Div - The Last Straw...

<ul>
<li>After peaking in H122, container rates have tumbled back to pre-Covid levels in Q123</li>
<li>We believe core profitability has also declined to pre-Covid levels for some carriers</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a> no longer looks expensive, trading at 70-75% of replacement  cost.</li>
</ul>


After peaking in H122, container rates have tumbled back to pre-Covid levels in Q123
We believe core profitability has also declined to pre-Covid levels for some carriers

Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT) no longer looks expensive, trading at 70-75% of replacement  cost.


TRACKING TRAFFIC / Container Shipping: End of the Rollercoaster Ride

Japan

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. operates marine cargo and passenger transportation around the world.  The Company provides ocean liner, bulk carrier, car carrier, unscheduled specialized carrier, and energy transportation services. The Company also offers insurance, warehousing, and land transportation services.  Items transported include automobile, grain, petroleum, coal, iron ore, and wood chip.

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. provides marine transportation, warehousing, and cargo handling services.  The Company operates container ship, specialized carrier, oil tankers, and ferry.  Items transported include coal, iron ore, grain, logs, aluminum, cement, industrial salt, copper ore, wood chips, paper products, chemical products, gasoline and other petroleum products, LPG, and other cargoes.

IINO KAIUN KAISHA, LTD. owns and operates specialized tankers such as oil, chemical, and LPG carriers.  The Company transports crude oil, petroleum gasoline, and various dry consumer and agricultural goods.  Iino Kaiun Kaisha also leases and sells real estate.

NS United Kaiun Kaisha, Ltd. operates specialized carriers and tramps to ship iron ore, steel, coal, crude oil, and gas. The Company is affiliated with Nippon Yusen. The Company also has close ties with Nippon Steel.

Japan Transcity Corporation provides warehousing and transportation services. The Company handles marine cargo mainly around port of Yokkaichi City, and transports a variety of products such as automobiles, coal, and chemicals. Japan Transcity specializes in international intermodal transportation.

NAIGAI TRANS LINE LTD is a marine transportation company. The Company mainly offers international and domestic container marine transportation services. NAIGAI TRANS LINE LTD also operates warehousing and cargo handling services.

Nippon Concept Corporation is mainly engaged in providing ISO tank container transportation service.  The Company also offers container cleaning services, logistic solutions, and maintenance services.

Meiji Shipping Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services. The Company also provides technical management, marine staffing, supplies Italian kitchen fixtures, and supplies nautical equipment. Meiji, also in involved in real estate and operates hotels and restaurants.

ANA Holdings Inc provides a variety of air transportation-related services. The Company offers scheduled & unscheduled air passenger services and air courier services. ANA sells aircraft parts and provides travel arrangement & reservation services as well.

West Japan Railway Company provides rail transportation services including the shinkansen network (bullet train) in North Kyushu, Kinki, Chugoku, and Hokuriku including Kyoto and Osaka.  The Company also operates ferries in Miyajima, manages real estate, shopping centers, and hotels, and offers leisure-related services such as travel packaging products.

Orient Overseas International Ltd, through its subsidiaries, owns and leases ships, operates terminals, and provides freight forwarding and container transportation services.  The Company also develops and invests in properties, leases equipment, and invests in securities.

MISC Berhad owns ships and operates shipping and related services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides trucking, warehousing and forwarding service, containers and prime movers repair, and container haulage. MISC Berhad also has operation in trucking and launch operator.

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

Evergreen Marine Corp. (Taiwan) Ltd. transports freight by ships. The Company operates container ships to move freight throughout the world. Evergreen Marine has interests in terminals, airline operations and motor freight transportation, as well as container manufacturing.

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd offers marine freight transportation services.  The Company offers container shipping, dry bulk shipping, logistics services, freight forwarding, and terminal and container leasing services internationally.  COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd operates container ships and terminals, and manufactures shipping containers.

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. offers marine shipping services. The Company provides refined oil transportation, crude oil transportation, and other services. COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation also ships iron ores, dry bulks, coal, and other products.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H)

Kirby Corporation operates a fleet of inland tank barges.  The Company transports industrial chemicals, refined petroleum products, black oil products, and agricultural chemicals.  Kirby also overhauls and services diesel engines employed in marine, power generation, and rail applications.

Matson Inc., is involved in transportation and logistics.  The Company offers provides  multimodal transportation services to the North American market, including domestic and international rail intermodal service, long haul and regional highway brokerage, supply chain services and LTL transportation services, as well as third-party logistics services.

Yang Ming Marine Transport provides transportation services and handles domestic and foreign maritime services on cargos.  The Company also operates warehouse, wharf, tug, barge, and container freight station services as well as repairs, leases, and sells containers and chassis.

Wan Hai Lines Ltd. provides marine transportation and shipping agent services. The Company also purchases, sells, and leases vessels and containers as well as operates container freight stations.

Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha mainly provides marine transportation services and transportation management solution from international hub ports to both domestic and international ports. The Company operates container transportation, tramp and specialized carriers, and logistics and cruise lines. Nippon Yusen offers scheduled and unscheduled transportation services around the world.

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Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)

Maersk Q1: Earnings Fine | Guidance Intact | Takeaways for Container Shipping (And Inflation)

Maersk's Q1 result showed a steep Y/Y decline in earnings due to lower rates. But RoE is fine, and the company maintained guidance, which supports...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Container Shipping: Momentum Bottomed | Shares Stabilized | Focus on May News

Container shipping industry momentum bottomed in Q1, and related shares have stopped reacting to bad news. News and commentary from industry...

Tracking Traffic

Good Morning Japan| Recession Fears Spook Equities;NUGGET- Musk Jumps in AI Race, Boon for Advantest

Expect a broadly quiet start in Japan. Panasonic plans to establish its third US battery plant;. JT increasing its focus on heated stick products;...

Mark Chadwick

Mitsui OSK(9104): Ex-Div - The Last Straw...

We think that the current share price level of Mitsui OSK is the “last hurrah” after the company goes ex-dividend on March 30 when the company pays...

Mark Chadwick

TRACKING TRAFFIC / Container Shipping: End of the Rollercoaster Ride

For container rates and profitability, it's been a wild rollercoaster ride over the past three years. But now shares of pure play Evergreen Marine...

Tracking Traffic

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