Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>5G-Capable devices now account for 25% of total devices in Japan. So far, 5G take-up appears to be quicker than 4G although that doesn't translate into higher revenue</li>
<li>MVNO subscriptions continue to grow despite former leader Rakuten moving users to its own network. IIJ remains the segment leader</li>
<li>Rakuten Mobile's subscriber woes have been well-flagged but another issue may be ahead as the migration of MVNO subs to the MNO platform has slowed in recent quarters.</li>
</ul>


5G-Capable devices now account for 25% of total devices in Japan. So far, 5G take-up appears to be quicker than 4G although that doesn't translate into higher revenue
MVNO subscriptions continue to grow despite former leader Rakuten moving users to its own network. IIJ remains the segment leader
Rakuten Mobile's subscriber woes have been well-flagged but another issue may be ahead as the migration of MVNO subs to the MNO platform has slowed in recent quarters.


Japan Telecoms - MIC Reports Telecom Subscription Data Including a Key 5G Milestone

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> results were better than Softbank Corp's and KDDI's. The good "drift trade" may still be to be long NTT vs a basket of KDDI and Softbank Corp. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality (FHT SP)</a> Scheme failed.  The non-vocal minority simply didn't show up. Maybe apathy. Maybe a holiday season. Maybe lack of premium paid encouraged people to not vote.</li>
<li>In a surprise move, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14210:1" rel="noopener">Genting Bhd (GENT MK)</a>- or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3141:1" rel="noopener">Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)</a> - has joined the six incumbents in bidding for new casino licences in Macau.</li>
</ul>



NTT (9432 JP) results were better than Softbank Corp's and KDDI's. The good "drift trade" may still be to be long NTT vs a basket of KDDI and Softbank Corp. 
The Frasers Hospitality (FHT SP) Scheme failed.  The non-vocal minority simply didn't show up. Maybe apathy. Maybe a holiday season. Maybe lack of premium paid encouraged people to not vote.
In a surprise move, Genting Bhd (GENT MK)- or Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) - has joined the six incumbents in bidding for new casino licences in Macau.


Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Frasers Hospitality, Genting/Macau, United Tractor, Arb Shockers

Travis Lundy

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NTT announced a buyback in May as discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ntt-9432-salutary-earnings-salutary-buyback-more-to-go" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:69873" rel="noopener">NTT (9432) - Salutary Earnings Salutary Buyback, More to Go</a>, via ToSTNeT-3 to buy a chunk of the govt's stake. </li>
<li>That will be <a href="https://group.ntt/en/newsrelease/2022/09/14/220914a.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">executed</a> by ToSTNeT-3 buyback pre-open tomorrow, with a bid of 103.1725mm shares at ¥3,877. A separate report suggests the Ministry of Finance will sell 92mm shares.</li>
<li>It is like a mini tender offer so if you want to sell a large chunk of shares, you can. But I wouldn't. </li>
</ul>


NTT announced a buyback in May as discussed in NTT (9432) - Salutary Earnings Salutary Buyback, More to Go, via ToSTNeT-3 to buy a chunk of the govt's stake. 
That will be executed by ToSTNeT-3 buyback pre-open tomorrow, with a bid of 103.1725mm shares at ¥3,877. A separate report suggests the Ministry of Finance will sell 92mm shares.
It is like a mini tender offer so if you want to sell a large chunk of shares, you can. But I wouldn't. 


NTT (9432) Buyback Has Come - But NTT Is Gonna Grind Out Better EPS So I'd Keep It

<ul>
<li>Within our coverage, NTT and Softbank Group are the main beneficiaries of a stronger dollar. NTT benefits operationally as it generates c. $18-20bn in overseas revenue</li>
<li>Softbank benefits in valuation terms as c. 90% of the portfolio is dollar-linked. The forex move from ¥115 to ¥144 boosts asset value by ¥2.4trn or  ¥1,500/share (net)</li>
<li>ECommerce play Mercari gets 30% of revenue from the US but that segment is losing money and a stronger dollar expands that on a yen P&amp;L</li>
</ul>


Within our coverage, NTT and Softbank Group are the main beneficiaries of a stronger dollar. NTT benefits operationally as it generates c. $18-20bn in overseas revenue
Softbank benefits in valuation terms as c. 90% of the portfolio is dollar-linked. The forex move from ¥115 to ¥144 boosts asset value by ¥2.4trn or  ¥1,500/share (net)
ECommerce play Mercari gets 30% of revenue from the US but that segment is losing money and a stronger dollar expands that on a yen P&amp;L


Japan Telecoms - Strong Dollar a Boon for NTT and Softbank Group, Bad for Mercari

<ul>
<li>The Ministry of Industry Affairs and Communications (MIC) has issued a progress report on its mobile spectrum allocations through 2025</li>
<li>There is no change to previous allocation targets of c. 16 GHz but it is worth highlighting again how huge that is versus current industry holdings of 3 GHz</li>
<li>In general, more spectrum is a positive for Japanese mobile operators, especially as airwaves are allocated not auctioned</li>
</ul>


The Ministry of Industry Affairs and Communications (MIC) has issued a progress report on its mobile spectrum allocations through 2025
There is no change to previous allocation targets of c. 16 GHz but it is worth highlighting again how huge that is versus current industry holdings of 3 GHz
In general, more spectrum is a positive for Japanese mobile operators, especially as airwaves are allocated not auctioned


Japan Telecoms - A Reminder on the Regulator’s Spectrum Plans Through FY25

Japan

USEN-NEXT HOLDINGS Co.,Ltd. provides network information services. The Company provides video contents distribution, music contents distribution, and other services. USEN-NEXT HOLDINGS also provides internet agency, mobile communication, and other services.

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

Softbank Corporation provides mobile phone telecommunication and networking services. The Company offers mobile communication opening, short messaging function opening, video function opening, and other services. Softbank also provides mobile phones.

ARTERIA Networks Corporation provides telecommunication services. The Company offers internet connection, virtual private network construction, colocation, mobile connection, mobile device management, optical fiber network construction, and other services.

Vision Inc. provides a variety of telecommunication services, including fixed-line telecom, wireless telecom and wifi services. The company also provides distribution and lease service of office equipments and communications equipments.

FreeBit Co., Ltd. provides Internet connectivity outsourcing services for Internet service providers.  The Company also offers ubiquitous networking environment.  FreeBit provides consulting services for Internet related businesses as well.

Broadmedia Corporation provides broadband service, CDN (contents delivery network), and media contents belonging to Softbank broadcasting. Broadmedia also markets game on demand service.

Nintendo Co., Ltd. globally develops, manufactures and sells home-use video game hardware and software in home entertainment business.  The company also produces home-game products including cards.

OKINAWA CELLULAR TELEPHONE COMPANY provides cellular and car phone services in Okinawa Prefecture.  The Company also sells cellular phones and accessories.

China Telecom Corporation Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides wireline telephone, data, and Internet, as well as leased line services in China.

Deutsche Telekom AG offers telecommunications services.  The Company offers a full range of fixed-line telephone services, mobile communications services, Internet access, and combined information technology and telecommunications services for businesses.

Singapore Telecommunications Limited wireless telecommunication services. The Company offers diverse range of services including fixed, mobile, data, internet, TV,  and digital solutions. Singapore Telecommunications serves customers worldwide.

Telstra Corporation Limited is a full service domestic and international telecommunications provider for Australia.  The Company provides telephone exchange lines to homes and businesses, supplying local, long distance and international telephone calls and supplying mobile telecommunications services. Telstra also provides data, internet, on-line services and directory services.

AT&T Inc. is a communications holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries and affiliates, provides local and long-distance phone service, wireless and data communications, Internet access and messaging, IP-based and satellite television, security services, telecommunications equipment, and directory advertising and publishing.

China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in the People's Republic of China.  The Company's services include cellular, paging, long distance, data, and Internet services.

Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. provides local, domestic, and international long distance services. The Company also offers wireless telecommunication, paging, and Internet services.

Cellnex Telecom S.A.U. is an independent operator of wireless telecommunications infrastructure and broadcast infrastructure. The Company's sites are located in Spain and Italy.

Telefonica S.A. provides telecommunications services mainly to countries in Europe and Latin America.  The Company offers fixed-line and mobile telephone, Internet, and data transmission services to residential and corporate customers.

Orange SA provides telecommunications services to residential, professional, and large business customers. The Company offers public fixed-line telephone, leased lines and data transmission, mobile telecommunications, cable television, Internet and wireless applications, and broadcasting services, and telecommunications equipment sales and rentals.

Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation provides a variety of telecommunication services, including telephone, telegraph, leased circuits, data communication, terminal equipment sales, and related services. The Company provides both local and long distance telephone services within Japan.

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

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NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

Japan Telecoms - MIC Reports Telecom Subscription Data Including a Key 5G Milestone

MIC data highlights the rapid proliferation of 5G as capable devices exceed 25% two years after launch. The latest also reiterates mobile strength...

Kirk Boodry

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Frasers Hospitality, Genting/Macau, United Tractor, Arb Shockers

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

NTT (9432) Buyback Has Come - But NTT Is Gonna Grind Out Better EPS So I'd Keep It

NTT's large buyback - possibly the only one this year - comes today. Designed for govt to sell shares, but you can participate. I wouldn't though....

Travis Lundy

Japan Telecoms - Strong Dollar a Boon for NTT and Softbank Group, Bad for Mercari

We have discussed strong dollar beneficiaries before but thought it worth revisiting with the dollar at a 24-year high. In short: better NTT...

Kirk Boodry

Japan Telecoms - A Reminder on the Regulator’s Spectrum Plans Through FY25

The MIC has published a draft report on its progress towards FY25 spectrum allocations. In general, more spectrum is good for the industry...

Kirk Boodry

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