Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>The laundry list of current market conditions consistent with the profile of a bull market continues to grow, helping support our ongoing belief that global equities are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. We explore and highlight actionable investment themes and opportunities across the EM space and within materials, Energy, Manufacturing, Health care and Apparel/Luxury Goods</p>

The laundry list of current market conditions consistent with the profile of a bull market continues to grow, helping support our ongoing belief that global equities are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. We explore and highlight actionable investment themes and opportunities across the EM space and within materials, Energy, Manufacturing, Health care and Apparel/Luxury Goods

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - COMPANIES •</strong></p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/110/839/original/2019-12-17_10-16-56.png?1576545466" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="110839"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>COMPANY RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS </strong>- The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies are put on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can reveal attractive trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. </p>
</div><div><div><p>Following on from our previous Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-december-sector-peer-group-relative-price-scores-from-defensives-to-cylicals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35266" rel="noopener">December Sector &amp; Peer Group Relative Price Scores - From Defensives to Cylicals</a> which covered <strong>Sectors</strong> and <strong>Peer Groups</strong>, in the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we update our list of Overbought and Oversold large-cap companies (market capitalisation over ¥100b) with the current <strong>Very Overbought</strong> (RPS&gt;5), <strong>Too-Late-To-Buy</strong> (RPS &gt;4.5) and <strong>Oversold</strong> (RPS &lt;-2) companies, as well as the largest positive and negative <strong>3-month Changes</strong> in RPS adding some stock-specific comments in each category.</p></div></div>


• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - COMPANIES •
Source: Japan Analytics
COMPANY RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies are put on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can reveal attractive trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. 
Following on from our previous Insight December Sector &amp; Peer Group Relative Price Scores - From Defensives to Cylicals which covered Sectors and Peer Groups, in the DETAIL section below, we update our list of Overbought and Oversold large-cap companies (market capitalisation over ¥100b) with the current Very Overbought (RPS&gt;5), Too-Late-To-Buy (RPS &gt;4.5) and Oversold (RPS &lt;-2) companies, as well as the largest positive and negative 3-month Changes in RPS adding some stock-specific comments in each category.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • December Company Relative Price Scores - Opportunities in the Outliers

<p style="text-align: justify;">Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip mentality is warranted. While we want to acknowledge that the potential for a US-China tariff escalation remains a risk for the market, we believe this is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. In our December International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our positive outlook, including actionable trade ideas in technology, health care and manufacturing.</p>

Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip mentality is warranted. While we want to acknowledge that the potential for a US-China tariff escalation remains a risk for the market, we believe this is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. In our December International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our positive outlook, including actionable trade ideas in technology, health care and manufacturing.

Global Equities Headed Up and to the Right: Technology, Health Care Leading

<p>Global equities remain in a short-term consolidation phase, however we continue to believe the longer-term trend is up and to the right for the MSCI ACWI following the late-October breakout.  In this report we recap important technical levels across all major indexes and highlight actionable opportunities within Global Health Care stocks, which are hitting on all cylinders, with plenty of opportunities across various industries (services, devices/equipment, pharmaceuticals, biotech, etc.) and geographies (Europe, Japan, China, EM, etc.).</p>

Global equities remain in a short-term consolidation phase, however we continue to believe the longer-term trend is up and to the right for the MSCI ACWI following the late-October breakout.  In this report we recap important technical levels across all major indexes and highlight actionable opportunities within Global Health Care stocks, which are hitting on all cylinders, with plenty of opportunities across various industries (services, devices/equipment, pharmaceuticals, biotech, etc.) and geographies (Europe, Japan, China, EM, etc.).

Global Equity Strategy: Health Care Hitting On All Cylinders - Overweight

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<p>Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is currently trading near support within the 16-17 month uptrend channel. Technicals suggest the most likely scenario is for the DXY uptrend to continue and for support to hold -- which would likely result in EAFE reasserting as leadership.  In this publication we highlight attractive investment themes and individual ideas across developed markets, with special attention given to Japan, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland.</p>

Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is currently trading near support within the 16-17 month uptrend channel. Technicals suggest the most likely scenario is for the DXY uptrend to continue and for support to hold -- which would likely result in EAFE reasserting as leadership.  In this publication we highlight attractive investment themes and individual ideas across developed markets, with special attention given to Japan, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland.

Developed Markets Strategy: Stick with Japan

Japan

Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd. manufactures pharmaceutical and health foods products. The Company produces drugs for urinary, nerve, respiratory, and circulatory systems as well as analgesic and anti-inflammatory drugs.  Nippon Shinyaku also develops synthetic anti-bacterial agents.

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Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP)

EM Breakout -- Add Exposure

The laundry list of current market conditions consistent with the profile of a bull market continues to grow, helping support our ongoing belief...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • December Company Relative Price Scores - Opportunities in the Outliers

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - COMPANIES • COMPANY RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equities Headed Up and to the Right: Technology, Health Care Leading

Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Health Care Hitting On All Cylinders - Overweight

Global equities remain in a short-term consolidation phase, however we continue to believe the longer-term trend is up and to the right for the...

Vermilion Research

Developed Markets Strategy: Stick with Japan

Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE...

Vermilion Research

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