Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A US court found <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-shinyaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6634:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP)</a> guilty of patent infringement related to competitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sarepta-therapeutics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17729:1" rel="noopener">Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT US)</a>'s DMD drug Vyondys 53 and asked to pay $115M as compensation.  </li>
<li>The jury verdict will have no bearing on Viltepso sales. Nippon Shinyaku disagreed with the verdict, and is considering all options including post jury motions and appeals.</li>
<li>An additional expense to the tune of $115M would surely be a huge drag on the profitability of the company which is already under pressure because of rising costs.</li>
</ul>


A US court found Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP) guilty of patent infringement related to competitor Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT US)'s DMD drug Vyondys 53 and asked to pay $115M as compensation.  
The jury verdict will have no bearing on Viltepso sales. Nippon Shinyaku disagreed with the verdict, and is considering all options including post jury motions and appeals.
An additional expense to the tune of $115M would surely be a huge drag on the profitability of the company which is already under pressure because of rising costs.


Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Unfavorable Patent Verdict; Company Vows to Fight Back

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaken-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18819:1" rel="noopener">Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP)</a> reported 42% YoY jump in revenue during H1FY25 on one-time upfront payment, while operating profit also witnessed hefty growth of 255% YoY.</li>
<li>Top selling products are impacted by NHI drug price revision and increasing competition. The company has reiterated FY25 guidance. Profitability is expected to deteriorate sequentially in H2.</li>
<li>The respite from one time receipt will not compensate for the revenue loss from the negative impact from NHI drug price revision and generic competition for top selling products.</li>
</ul>



Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP) reported 42% YoY jump in revenue during H1FY25 on one-time upfront payment, while operating profit also witnessed hefty growth of 255% YoY.
Top selling products are impacted by NHI drug price revision and increasing competition. The company has reiterated FY25 guidance. Profitability is expected to deteriorate sequentially in H2.
The respite from one time receipt will not compensate for the revenue loss from the negative impact from NHI drug price revision and generic competition for top selling products.


Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): One-Off Payment Boosts H1FY25 Revenue; Headed for Another Bleak H2

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>GenScript Biotech established operations site and logistics center in Australia. Eisai has received positive opinion from CHMP recommending approval of lecanemab. Otsuka forms JV to boost IV supply in US.</li>
<li>Lunit formed strategic alliance in France to expand AI solution deployment. Daiichi Sankyo and AstraZeneca submitted a new BLA for accelerated approval in the U.S. for datopotamab deruxtecan for NSCLC.</li>
<li>Cellid has completed recruiting and dosing all participants in its Phase 3 clinical trial of COVID-19 vaccine targeting Omicron variant. Alembic Pharmaceutical received FDA approval for hypertension drug.</li>
</ul>


GenScript Biotech established operations site and logistics center in Australia. Eisai has received positive opinion from CHMP recommending approval of lecanemab. Otsuka forms JV to boost IV supply in US.
Lunit formed strategic alliance in France to expand AI solution deployment. Daiichi Sankyo and AstraZeneca submitted a new BLA for accelerated approval in the U.S. for datopotamab deruxtecan for NSCLC.
Cellid has completed recruiting and dosing all participants in its Phase 3 clinical trial of COVID-19 vaccine targeting Omicron variant. Alembic Pharmaceutical received FDA approval for hypertension drug.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Nov 17)- GenScript Biotech, Eisai, Otsuka, Daiichi Sankyo, Cellid, and Lunit

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices ends on Friday. There will be a lot of changes across the family.</li>
<li>Hang Seng Indices will announce the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> and the HSCI after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>There were HUGE inflows to onshore China focused ETFs during the week with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500 Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index</a> ETFs taking in the largest amounts.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices ends on Friday. There will be a lot of changes across the family.
Hang Seng Indices will announce the changes to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index and the HSCI after market close on Friday.
There were HUGE inflows to onshore China focused ETFs during the week with CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index and SSE50 Index ETFs taking in the largest amounts.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: JPXNK400, Kenedix, Positioning - India, Japan, Korea

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nisshin-seifun-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:640:1" rel="noopener">Nisshin Seifun Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oji-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11348:1" rel="noopener">Oji Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-shinyaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6634:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Shinyaku</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngk-insulators-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12580:1" rel="noopener">NGK Insulators</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil Group</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:391:1" rel="noopener">Sharp Corp</a> have all underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> over the last 3-4 months.</li>
<li>The underperformance could lead to adjustments in global passive portfolios and liquidity events on some of the stocks.</li>
<li>Short interest has started to increase and there could be more pre-positioning yet to come over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>



Nisshin Seifun Group, Oji Holdings, Nippon Shinyaku, CyberAgent Inc, NGK Insulators, Lixil Group and Sharp Corp have all underperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) over the last 3-4 months.
The underperformance could lead to adjustments in global passive portfolios and liquidity events on some of the stocks.
Short interest has started to increase and there could be more pre-positioning yet to come over the next few weeks.


Japan - Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting Stocks

Japan

Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd. manufactures pharmaceutical and health foods products. The Company produces drugs for urinary, nerve, respiratory, and circulatory systems as well as analgesic and anti-inflammatory drugs.  Nippon Shinyaku also develops synthetic anti-bacterial agents.

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Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP)