External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain HOLD. Despite NIO’s 3Q23 earnings beat on R&amp;D and SG&amp;A, its 4Q23 sales guidance could imply a tough FY24, in our view.</li><li>We see little chance for NIO to achieve double-digit GPM in FY24E given the lingering drag from battery swap.</li><li>We believe the limited GPM lift from the completion of the NT2.0 shift and acquiring plants from JAC (600418 CH, NR) could not offset its heavy SG&amp;A and R&amp;D, even as it finally plans to cut non-core projects. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain HOLD. Despite NIO’s 3Q23 earnings beat on R&amp;D and SG&amp;A, its 4Q23 sales guidance could imply a tough FY24, in our view.We see little chance for NIO to achieve double-digit GPM in FY24E given the lingering drag from battery swap.We believe the limited GPM lift from the completion of the NT2.0 shift and acquiring plants from JAC (600418 CH, NR) could not offset its heavy SG&amp;A and R&amp;D, even as it finally plans to cut non-core projects. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NIO Inc. (NIO US) – Back to Square One?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.</li><li>Wholesale volume also rose 7% YoY YTD, 3% higher than our prior forecast, largely due to doubled PV exports in the first four months of 2023.</li><li>Automakers in China started to cut inventories in Apr 2023, as we had expected.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.Wholesale volume also rose 7% YoY YTD, 3% higher than our prior forecast, largely due to doubled PV exports in the first four months of 2023.Automakers in China started to cut inventories in Apr 2023, as we had expected.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Mixed picture ahead as inventory risk lingers

<ul><li>We expect 3Q24 earnings of some leading Chinese automakers including BYD, Geely and Li Auto to rise substantially from 2Q24, which could beat investors’ expectation.</li><li>We expect Great Wall’s 3Q24 earnings to be resilient and at a similar level as 2Q24. Although both Xpeng and NIO launched competitive new models in 3Q24, we do not expect their net losses to narrow QoQ as the increase in gross profits may not be able to cover the R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses growth.</li><li>As valuation becomes less attractive now, we prefer automakers with more solid earnings, such as Geely and Li Auto. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect 3Q24 earnings of some leading Chinese automakers including BYD, Geely and Li Auto to rise substantially from 2Q24, which could beat investors’ expectation.We expect Great Wall’s 3Q24 earnings to be resilient and at a similar level as 2Q24. Although both Xpeng and NIO launched competitive new models in 3Q24, we do not expect their net losses to narrow QoQ as the increase in gross profits may not be able to cover the R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses growth.As valuation becomes less attractive now, we prefer automakers with more solid earnings, such as Geely and Li Auto. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 3Q Earnings Preview: Leading Players to Beat

<ul><li>We summarize the Sep 2024 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Aug 2024 retail sales volume for each model, as Sep 2024 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>The industrywide average discounts widened by 0.3ppts MoM in Sep, based on our calculations, mainly driven by German and Chinese brands. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Sep 2024 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Aug 2024 retail sales volume for each model, as Sep 2024 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.The industrywide average discounts widened by 0.3ppts MoM in Sep, based on our calculations, mainly driven by German and Chinese brands. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Stable Discounts Imply Resilient 3Q Earnings

<ul><li>We summarize the Sep 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li><li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.</li><li>The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Sep 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Sep NEV Leading Indicators Set the Tone for 4Q

China

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

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NIO (NIO US)

NIO Inc. (NIO US) – Back to Square One?

Maintain HOLD. Despite NIO’s 3Q23 earnings beat on R&D and SG&A, its 4Q23 sales guidance could imply a tough FY24, in our view.

CMB International

China Auto Sector – Mixed picture ahead as inventory risk lingers

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.

CMB International

Auto - 3Q Earnings Preview: Leading Players to Beat

We expect 3Q24 earnings of some leading Chinese automakers including BYD, Geely and Li Auto to rise substantially from 2Q24, which could beat...

CMB International

Auto - Stable Discounts Imply Resilient 3Q Earnings

We summarize the Sep 2024 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report. Note that such discounts for each automaker are...

CMB International

Auto - Sep NEV Leading Indicators Set the Tone for 4Q

We summarize the Sep 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

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